893 research outputs found
Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility
No full textThis paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The confidence crisis in the future performance of the Brazilian economy and the increase in risk aversion in international markets were responsible for a sudden stop of capital inflows in 2002 that caused a significant depreciation of the exchange rate. The inflation-targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization. We stress two important challenges: construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence; and iv) the exchange rate pass-through for "administered or monitored" prices is two times higher than for "market" prices.
Planejamento Estratégico : estudo de caso da empresa High Link segurança eletrônica LTDA
No full textCartografias de práticas de resistência em um dispositivo de saúde mental
No full textDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Psicologia, Florianópolis, 2015.Este trabalho busca acompanhar o percurso de uma trupe de teatro esquizozó chamada Utu Suru Baco Smica. Partindo da ideia que o grupo constitui um agenciamento coletivo que resiste às estratégias de saber-poder psiquiátrico, proponho nesta dissertação basicamente duas tentativas: a) problematizar os modos pelos quais a trupe elabora seu conhecimento, b) problematizar os modos pelos quais em suas práticas pode tornar-se sujeito. Imbricada num dispositivo psiquiátrico que representa seu objeto de intervenção, induz um discurso e produz os mais variados efeitos de poder sobre ele, a trupe da Utu recusa isso que é dito, produzido, e reconhecido sobre corpo do louco. Aberta aos acontecimentos, suas práticas e intervenções possibilitam singularizações que não passam pelas relações de saber e poder psi, mas sim pelos devires animais, devires imperceptíveis, devires loucos.Abstract : This paper seeks to follow the route of a ?esquizozó? theater group called ?Utu Suru Baco Smica?. Starting from the idea that the group constitutes a collective assemblage that resists to the strategies of psychiatric knowledge-power, I propose on this paper two attempts basically: a) discuss the ways the group knows madness, b) discuss the ways they can become subject in their practices. Imbricated in a psychiatric dispositive representing its object of intervention, it induces a speech and produces different effects of power on it, the group from Utu refuses what is said, reproduced and acknowledged about the body of a mad. Open to the happenings their practices and interventions enable particularizations that do not go through the relations of psychiatric knowledge and power, but through the animal becoming, imperceptible becoming, madness becoming
Adelmo Genro Filho e a teoria do jornalismo no Brasil: uma análise crítica
No full textTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Sociologia Política, Florianópolis, 2015.A afirmação de Adelmo Genro Filho, em "O Segredo da Pirâmide: para uma teoria marxista do jornalismo", de que o jornalismo é uma forma de conhecimento cristalizada no singular mobilizou jornalistas, pesquisadores e professores nos últimos 27 anos para instituição e legitimidade das teorias do jornalismo no Brasil. Com o arcabouço teórico e filosófico da Ontologia Crítica de Marx e Lukács, este estudo expõe as mediações presentes na produção e recepção da teoria, bem como os conceitos filosóficos que fundamentam a assertiva de Genro Filho. O trabalho divide-se em duas partes interdependentes. Na primeira, são trabalhadas as principais questões que se impunham para o jornalismo brasileiro nos anos 1980 (com ênfase para a formação acadêmica, a escrita jornalística e a hierarquia dos profissionais), a biografia do autor e o modo como o livro foi recepcionado pelos professores e pesquisadores em jornalismo no Brasil. A segunda parte reconstitui as bases filosóficas do livro, recuperando o entendimento ontológico do autor e o modo como esses fundamentos otimizam sua compreensão do jornalismo como forma de conhecimento. O objetivo é o de demonstrar como as escolhas teóricas do autor possuem estreita ligação com sua biografia e o modo como ele compreendia as questões de sua época. Ao passo que, por meio de análise do modo de recepção do livro, foi possível estabelecer uma cartografia da produção brasileira com base em 411 textos que citam "O Segredo da Pirâmide", evidenciando que o processo de institucionalização para a defesa do jornalismo como profissão, graduação especializada e com teorias específicas coincide com esse mapa. Paradoxalmente, demonstra-se que o processo de recepção do livro se faz acompanhar de uma negação da peculiar base marxista que o fundamenta, o que motiva o estudo detalhado das categorias utilizadas por Genro Filho.Abstract : In the book ?O Segredo da Pirâmide: para uma teoria marxista do jornalismo" [?The Secret of the Pyramid: for a Marxist theory of journalism"], Adelmo Genro Filho stated that journalism is a form of knowledge that is crystallized in the singular. This statement has mobilized journalists, researchers and professors over the last 27 years for the institution and legitimacy of theories of journalism in Brazil. With the theoretical and philosophical framework of Critical Ontology of Marx and Lukács, this study exposes the mediations present in the production and reception of the theory and the philosophical concepts that ground the Genro Filho's statement. The work is divided into two interdependent parts. At first, the text brings the main issues that were necessary to the Brazilian journalism in the 1980s (with emphasis on the academic, journalistic writing and the hierarchy of professionals), the author's biography and how the book was received by professors and researchers on journalism in Brazil. The second part reconstitutes the philosophical bases of the book, recovering the ontological understanding of the author towards journalism and how those fundamentals optimize the understanding of journalism as a form of knowledge proposed by the author. The objective was to demonstrate how the author's theoretical choices have close connection with his biography and how he understood the issues of his time. Simultaneously, through the analysis about the book's reception, it was possible to establish a cartography of the Brazilian production based on 411 texts mentioning "The Secret of the Pyramid", evidencing that the process of institutionalization for the defense of journalism as a profession, specialized graduation and with specific theories coincides with that map. Paradoxically, it is demonstrated that the book's reception process is accompanied by a denial of peculiar Marxist basis underlying it, which motivates the detailed study of the categories used by Genro Filho
Is the Investment-Uncertainty Link Really Elusive? The Harmful Effects of Inflation Uncertainty in Brazil
No full textAfter being one the fastest growing countries in the world during the 1940-80 period, with an average growth rate of 6.8%, Brazil has experienced a severe growth slowdown since the 1980s, which coincided with the steep rise in inflation as of 1980. At the same time, real investment rates have plunged, shrinking around nine percentage points just in the 1980s. Moreover, they were unable to recover their 1989 level afterwards. This is unexpected as several pro-growth reforms took place since 1990, such as trade liberalization, privatization and economic stabilization. More strikingly, in the ten years following the stabilization of the economy, real investment rates have being at their lowest levels for, at least, fifty years. One major factor that could help explaining this dismal behavior is inflation uncertainty, which have remained high despite much lower inflation since 1994. Indeed, inflation uncertainty is at the root as many types of uncertainties faced by firms. For example, it also means uncertainty about future interest rates and demand. This work aims both at uncovering the main determinants that have driven M&E investment in Brazil since 1980 and testing the link between inflation uncertainty and investment. The evidence strongly suggests that inflation uncertainty has been an important investment deterrent in Brazil, both in the short and long runs. Moreover, its effects were found to be asymmetric. Also, despite the limited role played by price variables in empirical studies of investment, the real interest rate, itself importantly affected by inflation uncertainty and inflation risk premium, seems to be another key factor in explaining low investment rates in Brazil.
O paradoxo de Moore e a declaração: consequências do choque de acessos de primeira e terceira pessoas
No full textTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Centro de Ciências Humanas. Programa de Pós-graduação em FilosofiaNeste trabalho, defendemos uma proposta de solução alternativa ao Paradoxo de Moore (PM). Para isso, no primeiro capítulo, após apresentarmos o PM em sua caracterização mais geral, estabelecemos um conjunto de condições que julgamos necessário para uma análise do problema. Com essas condições, pretendemos analisar diferentes soluções encontradas na literatura sobre o problema, criticando-as. No segundo capítulo, procuramos rejeitar aquelas que denominamos 'soluções assercionistas' ao PM, mostrando que discutir o problema em cenários que recorrem a teorias de atos de fala é improdutivo. No terceiro capítulo, a crítica recai sobre soluções que identificamos como 'mentalistas'; procuramos identificar que não são soluções produtivas ao PM, principalmente por necessitarem defender princípios doxásticos e epistêmicos demasiado 'fortes' em suas tentativas de garantir a racionalidade epistêmica. No quarto capítulo, mudamos a rota de investigação. Nossa crítica recai sobre um tipo de solução witgensteiniana ao PM, cuja característica geral é identificar as sentenças Moore-paradoxais como 'contradições disfarçadas'. Procuramos apontar uma lacuna presente neste tipo de análise, o que torna as referidas soluções vulneráveis à crítica. No quinto e último capítulo, defendemos uma proposta de solução a partir de R. Moran, para quem, ao reler certas passagens das Investigações Filosóficas de Wittgenstein, as sentenças Moore-paradoxais revelam um choque de acessos de primeira e terceira pessoas. Defendemos que esse choque de perspectivas faz com que as pessoas, em estado akrático (akrasia epistêmica) comprometam as suas participações racionais em determinados jogos de linguagem. Por fim, com essa leitura em vista, procuramos responder as condições de análise que propusemos no início do trabalho
Out-Of-The_Money Monte Carlo Simulation Option Pricing: the join use of Importance Sampling and Descriptive Sampling
No full textAs in any Monte Carlo application, simulation option valuation produces imprecise estimates. In such an application, Descriptive Sampling (DS) has proven to be a powerful Variance Reduction Technique. However, this performance deteriorates as the probability of exercising an option decreases. In the case of out of the money options, the solution is to use Importance Sampling (IS). Following this track, the joint use of IS and DS is deserving of attention. Here, we evaluate and compare the benefits of using standard IS method with the joint use of IS and DS. We also investigate the influence of the problem dimensionality in the variance reduction achieved. Although the combination IS+DS showed gains over the standard IS implementation, the benefits in the case of out-of-the-money options were mainly due to the IS effect. On the other hand, the problem dimensionality did not affect the gains. Possible reasons for such results are discussed.
Steady State Analysis of an Open Economy General Equilibrium Model for Brazil
No full textThe aim of the present research is to build an open economy recursive general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy in order to numerically assess the corresponding steady state equilibrium. This characterization allows us to numerically compute the endogenously determined steady state key relationship, namely the primary surplus aggregate output as well as the debt-product ratio among other variables, as functions of the monetary and fiscal policy parameters chosen by the government of the model economy. The adopted model introduces a transaction technology, which allows us to obtain a monetary equilibrium at steady state. This economy differs from the one used by Ljungqvist and Sargent (2000) for it considers an open economy with accumulation and production. The main result has shown that under the adopted parameterization the steady state of the model economy can numerically characterized by a debt output ratio of 0.3387. The numerical simulations show alternative steady states attainable by the government of the model economy. In order to finance higher expenses the government is bounded to trade-off higher interest rate (low inflation or high return on real money balances) with low operational surpluses due to the higher debt output ratio at the long run equilibrium.
Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate
No full textPrice distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.
The Effect of Adverse Supply Shocks on Monetary Policy and Output
No full textThe aim of the present research is to use a model economy built for Brazil, based on an optimizing dynamic general equilibrium model, in order to perform numerical simulations to derive the ability of the artificial economy to explain the impact of monetary policy interventions on short run economic performance in terms of the inflation rate, output gap, interest rate and level of economic activity in the face of an adverse supply shock. Alternative specification of monetary reaction functions are introduced into the model economy in order to perform a sensitivity analysis of derived impulse responses to those interventions facing the negative productivity shock. The preliminary results suggest that the introduction of habit persistence into the consumption hypothesis does not make much difference. However the introduction of different monetary reaction functions does alter the impulse response of output, inflation rate, and nominal interest rate. A common result is the decline in potential output for all models. Additionally, the only case where a reduction in the output gap is observed is when using the Taylor rule that takes into consideration the output gap and past interest rates with high persistence.
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