57 research outputs found

    Enhancing treatment effect estimation using machine learning and large language models

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    May2025School of ScienceIn modern healthcare, researchers and clinicians face numerous challenges when determining how well treatments work. Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) and Observational Studies are the most popular methods for evaluating treatment effectiveness, but each has limitations. Observational studies are easier to conduct than RCTs, but contain inherent biases that affect their reliability in measuring treatment effects. RCTs, while considered the best scientific approach, are hindered by high costs, long timelines, and difficulties recruiting enough participants. These problems are made worse by two key issues: the growing complexity of selecting the right baseline features needed for valid results, and the frequent lack of diversity among trial participants, which limits how widely the findings can apply to different populations. Recent advances in Large Language Models show potential for automating aspects of clinical trial design, especially baseline feature selection, though careful testing is needed to prevent false information generation. Beyond these research challenges, healthcare systems struggle to identify eligible patients for specialized programs, particularly in complex care management (CCM). The current system relies heavily on doctor referrals, creating bottlenecks that prevent many qualified patients from receiving helpful services. This thesis presents AI and Machine Learning based novel methods that improve treatment effect measurement in both observational studies and clinical trials, while also improving access essential healthcare programs for eligible patients. We begin by tackling the challenge of bias in observational studies, where confounding variables typically distort treatment effect estimates (Chapter 2). We develop a novel hybrid matching algorithm that combines multiple matching techniques to address this issue. Using a type-2 diabetes (T2D) health management program as our test case, we apply causal inference methods to observational data from a regional health insurance provider. Through hybrid matching and survival analysis, we evaluate both T2D onset timing and acute care utilization (emergency and inpatient visits). Our results reveal the program's dual impact: it significantly accelerates early T2D detection while substantially reducing participants' need for acute care services, though it shows no significant effect on T2D onset after the initial two-month period. While our hybrid matching approach proved effective for observational studies, we encountered significant challenges in identifying optimal baseline features for matching treated and control groups to minimize bias. This challenge becomes even more critical in clinical trials, where the stakes are higher and mistakes in feature selection can bias treatment effect estimation and contaminate trial outcomes. In Chapter 3, we address this by exploring the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) to assist in baseline feature selection for clinical trial design. We create two unique datasets covering nearly 1,700 clinical trials to benchmark how state-of-the-art models like GPT-4o and LLaMa3 can assist researchers in identifying crucial basiline features. Our evaluation process, combining LLM-as-a-Judge and human expert validation, reveals that while state-of-the-art general-purpose LLMs offer substantial benefits in this domain, their performance remains mediocre with significant room for improvement. In Chapter 4, we extend our research to address a critical challenge in clinical trials: achieving both accurate treatment effect measurement and demographic representativeness simultaneously. We introduce ``Framework for Research In Synthetic Control Arms (FRESCA)" to tackle inequity in hybrid clinical trials—studies that combine randomized controlled trial (RCT) participants with historical synthetic controls borrowed from existing trial data or real-world evidence. In this context, equity refers to ensuring trial populations adequately represent the target population for which the treatment is intended, particularly regarding protected attributes like age, gender, and race/ethnicity. Synthetic controls are non-randomized patients selected from historical data to supplement or replace standard control group recruits, potentially reducing trial costs and recruitment challenges. FRESCA implements a dual-stage approach that first employs propensity score matching (PSM) to recommend appropriate synthetic control patients, then applies Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) to adjust the population distribution to match target demographic characteristics. We do initial validation of FRESCA using the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) data with NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) serving as our target population reference. Initial results demonstrate FRESCA's ability to create more representative hybrid trial populations while maintaining statistical validity of treatment effect estimates. Chapter 5 expands our evaluation of FRESCA across multiple clinical trials, including SPRINT and ALLHAT clinical trials, with NHANES serving as the target population. We compare two new methods that integrate PSM and IPF against other baseline and state-of-the-art methods, confirming the effectiveness of combining propensity and equity adjustments in achieving both accurate and representative treatment effect estimates. Notably, our findings show that even with reduced RCT recruitment supplemented by synthetic controls, these methods maintain accuracy and equity across various trials and outcomes. This chapter also highlights the critical influence of treatment and control group sizes on estimation precision and the importance of balanced synthetic control usage for accurate treatment effect estimations. Finally, in Chapter 6, we address the challenge of healthcare access by examining how patients can be better connected with appropriate healthcare programs. We present a novel end-to-end machine learning approach that simulates the physician's decision-making process for Complex Care Management (CCM) program referrals. Using proprietary Electronic Health Record (EHR) and Claims data from a regional health provider, we tackle challenges such as non-stationarity, dataset imbalance, and partial labeling in time-series data. Our approach successfully identifies additional eligible patients for CCM program referrals who might otherwise be overlooked, providing clear justifications for their selection and potentially bridging the gap between available healthcare resources and patient needs.Ph

    Nafis al-Banjari : Muhammad Nafīs b. Idrīs al-Banjarī

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    NAFIS AL-BANJARI (MUHAMMAD NAFĪS B. IDRĪS AL-BANJARĪ) [Indonesia; late 18th century] [Dictionnaire biographique des savants et grandes figures du monde musulman périphérique, du XIXe siècle à nos jours, Fasc. no 2. Paris: CNRS-EHESS, 1998, p. 24-25] Muhammad Nafīs was an 18th-century Malay Sufi from the sultanate of Banjar in southeast Borneo. He is the author of the once widely read Malay Sufi work al-Durr al-nafīs, that has frequently been condemned by other `ulamā as heterodox because of its unmitigated wahdat alwujûd metaphysics

    Women and Power in Tuhfat Al-Nafis: Gender Studies in Malay History

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    In classical Malay literature, female characters are often not given the opportunity by the author to defend their rights. Women are considered passive in facing life. In Malay literature the role of female figures in public is often depicted as achieving hegemony of power through marriage and alliances with allied kingdoms. A passive attitude is the image of women, but in the Tuhfatun Nafis Manuscript, Tengku Tengah is told as a woman who was active in the political turmoil between Raja Kecik and the Kingdom of Johor. For this reason, the author aims to establish the role of Tengku Tengah in the political turmoil at that time. This article uses qualitative methods in collecting sources. With this, the researcher carried out a library research using a text content analysis approach

    Batavia in the memoirs of an eye-witness: autobiographical notes from the chronicle Tuhfat an-Nafis

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    The chronicle Tuhfat an-Nafis (“The Precious Gift”) is one of the most significant sources for the history of Johor, a very important independent Muslim state in the Malay Archipelago which existed between the seventeenth and nineteenth centuries. Tuhfat an-Nafis was written around 1866 by Raja Ali Haji (1809–1872), one of the most profound intellectuals of his time. It was written in Malay language with Jawi script and sheds light on many aspects of Malay-Indonesian history. Besides the main storylines, the text contains different additional materials, including autobiographical passages. Among them is a report of the official visit to Batavia of a group of representatives of Johor’s vice-king Raja Jafar (1773– 1831) in early 1238 (1822), which the author took part in. In this passage, Batavia appears in the description of a fourteen-year-old Malay/Bugis boy who would soon become one of the most famous writers of his time. By comparing his simple story with the realities of Batavia’s life in 1822, which were reflected in archival documents, memoirs and academic publications, we clarify some personalities, toponyms and dates described in the text. It should be also emphasized that this is a new type of source for the study of the colonial Batavia, the history of which is used to be written only on the basis of European works, primarily Dutch ones

    The Translation and Commentary of Ibn Al-Nafis Work Titled Risalat Al-a'za

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    İnsanlık tarihi ile birlikte ortaya çıktığına inanılan bazı tedavi yöntemlerinin olduğu düşünülmektedir. Dönemden döneme ve bölgeden bölgeye nasıl ki toplumların çeşitli özellikleri değişebilmekte ise insanların tedavide kullandığı birçok uygulamada da farklılıklar görülmesi olağan bir durum olarak karşılanmaktadır. Bu araştırmamızda Müslüman bir hekim olan İbnü'n-Nefis'in örnekliği üzerinden Orta Çağ'da, İslam dünyasında kullanılan tedavi yöntemlerinin, tıbbi gelişmelerin tarihi seyri incelenmeye çalışılacaktır. Tezimiz İbnü'n-Nefis'in hayatının, hocalarının, öğrencilerinin, eserlerinin ve yaşadığı toplumun sosyo kültürel, ekonomik ve siyasi yönlerinin alındığı bölüm ile başlamaktadır. Müellifimizin konuyla ilgili kaleme aldığı 'Risâlet'ül-A'za'' eserinin Arapça'dan Türkçeye ilk kez tercümesini gerçekleştirdiğimiz çeviri metni ve eserdeki bilgilerin günümüz yaklaşımları ile yer yer karşılaştırma yapmaya çalıştığımız kısım ise tezimizin ikinci bölümünü oluşturmaktadır. Son bölüm olarakda eserin anlaşılabilirliğini arttırmak adına İbnü'n-Nefis'in eserde başvurduğu kavramları açıklamak üzere kaleme aldığımız kısımdan müteşekkildir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Risâlet'ül-A'za', İbnü'n-Nefis, Memlükler, Tıp, Bilim, Orta Çağ.It is considered that there are some treatment methods emerging with humanity. The various features of society can change from period to period. Also, it is possible that many methods which are used in treatment may vary. In this study, it is tried to examine treatment methods, the historical process of medicine developments which are used in the Islamic world and Middle era through the example of Ibn al-Nafis, a physician. Our dissertation starts with a chapter which includes the life of Ibn al- Nafis, his teachers, students, works and socio-cultural, economic and political aspects of the society in which he lives. The second chapter of our dissertation starts with the tranlation of the Risalat al-A'za' which our author has written about the subject. We have tranlated it from Arabic to Turkish first time and have tried tp compare information in the work with today's approaches. As the last chapter, it consists of the part that we have written to explain the concepts that Ibn al- Nafis refers to in the work in order to increase the comprehensibility of the work. Key Words: Risalat al-A'za', Ibn al- Nafis, Mamluks, Medicine, Science, Middle Era

    KONSEP PENDIDIKAN AQIDAH PERSPEKTIF MUHAMMAD NAFIS AL-BANJARI (WAFAT 1812 M) DAN ABDURRASYID BANJAR (WAFAT 1934 M) DAN IMPLEMENTASNYA DI DESA TANJUNG RAJA LAMPUNG UTARA

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    ABSTRAK Pendidikan sangat identik dengan sebuah perkembangan seseorang "جِاَ١ؽٌ َاُُ ١ْ ٍِؼَ ْذ، َٚ َؼ١ ُُ َاٌرَ ْؼٍِ ْ١ ُاج ." Pada saat ini masyarakat sudah di permudah oleh kemajuan di bidang teknologi baik dari segi komunikasi maupun trasportasi, disamping itu juga kemajuan teknologi membawa dampak negatif bagi masyarakat, hari ini masyarakat banyak yang melupakan kearifan lokal yang merupakan keaslian dari daerahnya sendiri. Contohnya masyarakat millenial hari kurang mengenali budaya atau adat sebagai jati diri suku bangsa, seperti halnya kitab Ad-Durrun Nafis dan Perukunan Besar Melayu yang lekang dimakan zaman. Masyarakat millenial banyak yang menganggap bahwa mempelajari kitab Ad-Durrun Nafis dan Perukunan Besar Melayu saat ini adalah hal yang kuno dan tidak mengasikkan untuk di pelajari, padahal di dalam Ad-Durrun Nafis dan Perukunan Besar Melayu sendiri memuat nilai-nilai luhur yang tentunya sangat relevan pada saat ini. Berangkat dari latar belakang masalah diatas, penulis termotivasi untuk meneliti dan mengkaji Pendidikan aqidah yang mengacu pada pemikiran Muhammad Nafis Al-Banjari Dan Abdurrasyid Banjar. Dengan judul Konsep Pendidikan Aqidah Perspektif Muhammad Nafis Al-Banjari (Wafat 1812 M) Dan Abdurrasyid Banjar (Wafat 1934 M) Dan Implementasnya Di Desa Tanjung Raja Lampung Utara. Penelitian yang penulis gunakan adalah jenis penelitian lapangan atau disebut field research yaitu penelitian yang objeknya mengenai konsep Pendidikan aqidah Muhammad Nafis Al-Banjari dan Abdurrasyid Banjar dan Implementasinya di desa Tanjung Raja Lampung Utara yaitu penelitian antropologi spiritual yang mengkaji manusia dalam dimensi spiritual yang dimilikinya, baik yang menyangkut perilaku aqidah, sistem pengetahuan, dan totalitas kehidupan manusia. Penelitian ini bersifat deskriptif analisis yang mana penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengambarkan mengenai suatu individu, keadaan, gejala atau kelompok tertentu. Disini penulis menggunakan metode observasi, kemudian wawancara, dan juga dokumentasi untuk sumber data yang sama. Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini Implementasi Pendidikan Aqidah Muhammad Nafis Banjari dan abdurrasyid Banjar. Menamakan keyakinan di dalam diri seseorang dengan cara mengenali dirinya terlebih dahulu. ketika seseorang telah mengenali dirinya maka hati dan pikiran ini akan tunduk kepada Allah SWT. Lalu, keyakinan ini menjadikan seseorang rendah hati dan terjalin keharmonisan antar sesama masyarakat, hal ini dapat kita lihat dari tingginya antusias masyarakat Desa Tanjung Raja untuk mengikuti kajian-kajian keagamaan di setiap minggunya. Sedangkan Abdurrasyid Banjar berpendapat agar seorang insan dapat menjalankan aqidah dengan baik dan dapat mendekatkan diri kepada Allah SWT, guru atau mursyid harus lah mengenalkan secara mendalam tentang keimanan terlebih dahulu, di awali dengan memahami syahadat. Adapun fardhu syahadat itu terbagi menjadi dua; pertama haruslah diucapkan dengan lidah, kedua haruslah di tasdiqkan atau di benarkan di dalam hati. Kesempurnaan syahadat terbagi menjadi empat; pertama diketahui, kedua diiqrarkan, ketiga ditasdiqkan, keempat diyakinkan. Kata Kunci: Konsep Pendidikan, Aqidah v ABSTRACT Education is very synonymous with a person's development "ُاجَ١ؼُُ َ١ْ ٍِؼَ ْرٌاُُ ، َٚ١ْ ٍِؼَ ْذ جِاَ١ؽٌ َا ." Currently, society has been made easier by advances in technology both in terms of communication and transportation. Apart from that, technological advances also have a negative impact on society. Today, many people forget local wisdom which is the authenticity of their own region. For example, millennial society today does not recognize culture or customs as ethnic identity, such as the books Ad-Durrun Nafis and Perukunan Besar Melayu which are timeless. Many millennial people think that studying the books Ad-Durrun Nafis and Perukunan Besar Melayu today is old-fashioned and not fun to study, even though in Ad�Durrun Nafis and Perukunan Besar Melayu itself contains noble values which are of course very relevant at this time. Departing from the background of the problem above, the author is motivated to research and study aqidah education which refers to the thoughts of Muhammad Nafis Al-Banjari and Abdurrasyid Banjar. With the title The Concept of Aqidah Education from the Perspective of Muhammad Nafis Al-Banjari (Died 1812 AD) and Abdurrasyid Banjar (Died 1934 AD) and its Implementation in Tanjung Raja Village, North Lampung. The research that the author uses is a type of field research or what is called field research, namely research whose object is the concept of Muhammad Nafis Al-Banjari and Abdurrasyid Banjar's aqidah education and its implementation in the village of Tanjung Raja, North Lampung, namely spiritual anthropology research which examines humans in their spiritual dimensions, both which concerns religious behavior, knowledge systems, and the totality of human life. This research is a descriptive analysis in which this research aims to describe an individual, situation, symptom or certain group. Here the author uses the observation method, then interviews, and also documentation for the same data source. The conclusion of this research is the Implementation of Aqidah Education for Muhammad Nafis Banjari and Abdurrasyid Banjar. Naming beliefs within a person by getting to know him or herself first. When someone has recognized himself, his heart and mind will submit to Allah SWT. Then, this belief makes a person humble and creates harmony between people in the community. We can see this from the high enthusiasm of the people of Tanjung Raja Village in participating in religious studies every week. Meanwhile, Abdurrasyid Banjar is of the opinion that in order for a human being to be able to carry out the aqidah well and be able to get closer to Allah SWT, the teacher or murshid must provide an in-depth introduction to the faith first, starting with understanding the shahada. The fardhu shahadah is divided into two; First, it must be said with the tongue, second, it must be tasdiqkan or justified in the heart. The perfection of the creed is divided into four; The first is known, the second is confirmed, the third is accepted, the fourth is confirmed. Keywords: Educational Concept, Aqidah vi خالصة اٌرؼٍ١ِ ُشادف ظًذا ٌرطٛس اٌشخض "اٌ َؽ١َاِج ذَ ْؼٍِْ١َٚ ، ُُاٌرَ ْؼٍِْ١َ ُُؼ١َاجُ". فٟ اٌٛلد اٌؽاٌٟ، أطثػَاٌّعرّغَأعًَٙتفضًَاٌرمذََاٌرىٌٕٛٛظَٟعٛاءََِٓؼ١سَاالذظاالخَأَٚإٌمً،َٚتظشفَإٌظشَ ػٓ رٌه، فئْ اٌرمذَ اٌرىٌٕٛٛظٟ ٌٗ أ٠ً ضا ذأش١ش عٍثٟ ػٍٝ اٌّعرّغ، َٚاٌ١ََٛ٠ٕغَٝاٌىص١شََِٓإٌاطَ اٌؽىّحَاٌّؽٍ١حَاٌرَٟذّصًَأطاٌحَِٕطمرُٙ.َػٍَٝعث١ًَاٌّصاي،َالَ٠ؼرشفَِعرّغَاألٌف١حَاٌ١ََٛتاٌصمافحَ أَٚاٌؼاداخَوٙٛ٠حَػشل١ح،َِصًَورةَNafis Durrun-Adٚ Melayu Besar Perukunan اٌرَٟ الَذرأششَتّشٚسَاٌضِٓ.َ٠ؼرمذَاٌؼذ٠ذََِٓظ١ًَاألٌف١حَأَْدساعحَورةَاٌذسَْٚٔف١ظَٚت١شٚوٛٔاَْت١غاسَ ِال٠َٛاٌ١ََََِٟ٘ٛٓاٌطشاصَاٌمذ٠ٌَُٚ١غدَِّرؼحٌٍَذساعح، َػٍَٝاٌشغََُِٓأَْورابَاٌذسَْٚٔف١ظَ ٚت١شٚوٛٔاْ َت١غاس َِال٠َٔ ٛفغٗ َ٠ؽرٛٞ َػٍٝ َل١َٔ ُث١ٍح َراخ َطٍح َوث١شج َتاٌطثغ َفٟ َ٘زا َاٌٛلد.َ ً ِٓ خٍف١ح اٌّشىٍح أػالٖ، ؼشص اٌّؤٌف ػٍٝ اٌثؽس ٚدساعح اٌرشت١ح اٌؼم١ذ٠ح اٌرٟ ذشظغ ٚأطاللا إٌَٝأفىاسَِؽّذَٔف١ظَاٌثٕعشَٞٚػثذَاٌشش١ذَتٕعش.َتؼٕٛاَِْفََٙٛذؼٍ١َُاٌؼم١ذجََِٓٚظٙحَٔظشَِؽّذَ ٔف١ظَاٌثٕعشَٞ)خَ8181َٚ)َػثذَاٌشش١ذَتٕعشَ)خَ8391َٚ)َذٕف١زَٖفَٟلش٠حَذأعٛٔطَساظاَشّايَ الِثٛٔط. اٌثؽس َاٌزٞ َ٠غرخذِٗ َاٌّؤٌف َ٘ٛ َٔٛع َِٓ َأٔٛاع َاٌثؽس َاٌّ١ذأٟ َأٚ َِا َ٠غّٝ َتاٌثؽسَ اٌّ١ذأٟ، ََٚ٘ٛاٌثؽسَاٌزَِٞٛضٛػَِٗفََٙٛذؼٍ١َُػم١ذجَِؽّذَٔف١ظَاٌثٕعشَٞٚػثذَاٌشش١ذَتٕعاسَ ٚذٕف١ز٘اَفَٟلش٠ح َذأعٛٔطَساظاَشّايَالِثٛٔط، ََٟٚ٘أتؽازَاألٔصشٚتٌٛٛظ١اَاٌشٚؼ١ح َاٌرَٟذذسطَ اٌثششَفَٟأتؼادَُ٘اٌشٚؼ١ح،َٚاٌرَٟذرؼٍكَتاٌغٍٛنَاٌذ٠ٕٟ،َٚأٔظّحَاٌّؼشفح،َِٚعًَّاٌؽ١اجَاٌثشش٠ح.َ ٘زاَاٌثؽسَػثاسجَػَٓذؽٍ١ًَٚطفَٟ٠ٙذفَ٘زاَاٌثؽسَف١َٗإٌَٝٚطفَفشدَأَِٚٛلفَأَٚأػشاعَأَٚ ِعّٛػحَِؼ١ٕح.َٕ٘اَ٠غرخذََاٌّؤٌفَأعٍٛبَاٌّالؼظح،َشُ اٌّماتالخ،َٚأ٠ضاَاٌرٛش١كٌَٕفظَِظذسَ اٌث١أاخ. خاذّحَ٘زاَاٌثؽسََٟ٘ذٕف١زَذؼٍ١َُاٌؼم١ذجٌَّؽّذَٔف١ظَتٕعاسَٞٚػثذَاٌشش١ذَتٕعش.َذغّ١حَ . ػٕذِا ٠ؼشف اإلٔغاْ ٔفغٗ، فئْ اٌّؼرمذاخ داخً اٌشخض ِٓ خالي اٌرؼشف ػٍ١ ٗأٚ ٔفغٙا أٚالً لٍثٗ َٚػمٍٗ َعٛفَ٠خضؼاْ َهللَعثؽأٗ َٚذؼاٌٝ.َِٚٓ شُ فئْ ٘زا االػرماد ٠عؼً اإلٔغاْ ِرٛاض ًؼا ٚ٠خٍكَاالٔغعاََت١َٓإٌاطَفَٟاٌّعرّغ،َٚ٠ّىٕٕاَأَْٔشَٜرٌهََِٓخاليَاٌؽّاطَاٌىث١شَألًَ٘لش٠حَ ذأعٛٔطَساظاَفَٟاٌّشاسوحَفَٟاٌذساعاخَاٌذ٠ٕ١ح َوًَأعثٛع.َٚفَٟاٌٛلدَٔفغٗ، َ٠شَٜػثذ َاٌشش١ذَ تٕعشَأٌَٔٗىَٟ٠رّىَٓاإلٔغآََِْذٕف١زَاٌؼم١ذج ظ١ًذا ٚ٠ىْٛ لاد ًسا ػٍٝ اٌرمشب ِٓ هللا عثؽأٗ ٚذؼاٌٝ، ٠عة ػٍٝ اٌّؼٍُ أٚ اٌّششذ ذمذ٠ِ ُمذِح ِرؼّمح ٌٍؼم١ذج أٚالً، تذءا ِٓ فُٙ اٌشٙادج. ٚذٕمغُ اٌفشض١ح تاٌمٍة. ً أٚ ذغٛ٠غا ً تاٌٍغاْ، ٚاٌصأٟ: أْ ٠ىْٛ ذظذ٠ما اٌشٙادج إٌٝ لغّ١ٓ؛ األٚي: أْ ٠ىْٛ لٛالً ٚوّايَاٌؼم١ذجَ٠ٕمغَُإٌَٝأستؼح؛َفاألٚيَِؼشٚف،َٚاٌصأَِٟؤوذ،َٚاٌصاٌسَِمثٛي،َٚاٌشاتغَِؤوذ. اٌىٍّاخَاٌّفراؼ١ح:َاٌّفََٙٛاٌرشتٛٞ،َاٌؼم١ذ
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