1,720,991 research outputs found
The role of discounting in energy policy investments
No full textFor informing future energy policy decisions, it is essential to choose the correct social discount rate (SDR) for ex-ante economic evaluations. Generally, costs and benefits—both economic and environmental—are weighted through a single constant discount rate. This leads to excessive discounting of the present value of cash flows progressively more distant over time. Evaluating energy projects through constant discount rates would mean underestimating their environmental externalities. This study intends to characterize environmental–economic discounting models cali-brated for energy investments, distinguishing between intra-and inter-generational projects. In both cases, the idea is to use two discounting rates: an economic rate to assess financial components and an ecological rate to weight environmental effects. For intra-generational projects, the dual discount rates are assumed to be constant over time. For inter-generational projects, the model is time-declining to give greater weight to environmental damages and benefits in the long-term. Our discounting approaches are based on Ramsey’s growth model and Gollier’s ecological discounting model; the latter is expressed as a function of an index capable of describing the performance of a country’s energy systems. With regards to the models we propose, the novelty lies in the calibration of the “environmental quality” parameter. Regarding the model for long-term projects, another innovation concerns the analysis of risk components linked to economic variables; the growth rate of consumption is modelled as a stochastic variable. The defined models were implemented to deter-mine discount rates for both Italy and China. In both cases, the estimated discount rates are lower than those suggested by governments. This means that the use of dual discounting approaches can guide policymakers towards sustainable investment in line with UN climate neutrality objectives
A probabilistic model for the estimation of declining discount rate
No full textIn the Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) the traditional discount procedures determine a significant contraction of the financial terms that are furthest over time. This contraction is not acceptable in the economic evaluation of public projects with inter-generational effects, since it causes little appreciation of the net benefits for the future generations. The use of time-Declining Discount Rate (DDR) represents a possible solution to the problem. Following a critical analysis of the main methodologies that the theory describes, the study proposes an innovative model for the estimation of DDR. The model, based on principles widely recognized in literature, uses probabilistic laws and returns a simple-use forecasting algorithm, as uses economic and demographic data easy to find. The implementation for the Italian economy makes it possible to validate the model and makes it clear how significantly the results of the CBA can vary if a declining discount rate instead of a time-invariant rate is chosen. The important political repercussions on the entire allocation process of public resources demonstrate the effectiveness of hyperbolic discount procedures, suggesting to distinguish between constant discount rates for the evaluation of projects with intra-generational effects and time-declining discount rates for interventions with inter-generational implications
L'analisi delle serie storiche per la gestione degli aspetti incerti nella stima indiretta del reddito aziendale
No full textSustainability indicators for the economic evaluation of tourism investments on islands
Full text linkThe sustainable tourism development is often a key element for the enhancement of island states. The fragility and the environmental, social and economic vulnerability that characterize these territories make the need to integrate the multiple aspects of sustainability into the decision-making processes concerning the definition of plans and programs of investment in the tourism sector increasingly urgent. Thus, the aim of the work is to build a dataset of sustainability indicators classified and weighed according to the subsequent characterization of a multi-criteria evaluation model. This dataset is obtained by defining an analysis procedure aimed at: selecting scientifically valid indicators, readily available by the analysts and easy to interpret by stakeholders; weighing the indicators themselves based on criteria shared in the literature; taking into account the uniqueness of the territorial reference system. The evaluation protocol proposed is substantiated in the subsequent steps of selection, classification, weighting and ranking of sustainability indicators for the analysis of tourism projects on the island. Innovative elements essentially concern weighting operation. In fact, the weight of each indicator is a function of several evaluation criteria and is estimated by using both statistical analysis methods and analytic hierarchy processes. The output of the study, consisting of the dataset of sustainability indicators, is a prerequisite for the subsequent characterization of a multi-criteria evaluation model able to select investment projects that balance the environmental, economic and social specificities of the island. This can determine greater effectiveness in the allocation processes of both public and private resources
Investments in the Water and Energy Sectors. Cost–Benefit Analysis and Multi-criteria Assessments to Support the Decision-Making Processes
No full textAny investment in the water and energy sectors has to deal not only with technological issues but also with financial aspects — related to the ability of the project to generate adequate profitability in the relevant market — and to forecast the environmental, social, and cultural effects. In this perspective, the literature provides methodological approaches and evaluation tools. The main references are the cost–benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria techniques. The CBA makes it possible to make judgments about the cost effectiveness of the interventions. The results are expressed in quantitative terms, using the well-known indicators net present value, internal rate of return, benefit–cost ratio, and payback period. Studies allow translating a series of extra-financial effects of investment into monetary terms and considering its risk components and to implement sophisticated models to discount the corresponding cash flows. Instead, the multi-criteria techniques evaluate the multiple effects of an intervention through different value scales, both quantitative and qualitative. Thus, it is possible to obtain a ‘profile’ of the project effects, looking at its ability in increasing the community well-being. The paper is intended to provide an overview of decision support models. It also aimed to compare the different approaches, propose new evaluation schemes according to the specificities of the water and energy sectors, and represent research perspectives. This was achieved taking into account the essential community and international guidelines on the water resources and energy transition management
Multi-criteria methods for the optimal localization of urban green areas
No full textWith reference to the important issues on sustainable urban development, ecosystem services play a significant role today, able to significantly affect the quality of life in cities. In this perspective, urban regeneration processes must be encouraged through the creation of green areas. Such intervention strategies enhance the livability and resilience of growing cities by: (i) generating ecosystem services (ESs); (ii) containing the negative impacts of urbanization; and (iii) contributing to a Circular Economy (CE). This study uses techniques of multi-criteria evaluation with to characterize a methodology that can favor the best localization of urban parks. Elements of novelty of the research concern both the logical structure of the implemented algorithms, based on a panel of rigorously selected indicators, and the consistency checks between the different methods examined. Specifically, we propose a set of six indicators of general validity and easy to estimate, with aim to define: (i) a methodology easily replicable to different socio-economic contexts; (ii) a useful tool for decision-makers and urban planners as they are easy to be practically implemented. Once indicators are selected, we implement and compare four different evaluation approaches – AHP, ELECTRE, TOPSIS and VIKOR – to select the optimal localization of a green areas in an Italian city. The goal is to provide a more cohesive framework for the evaluation of the optimal location of urban green strategies, in the light of economic, environmental, and social criteria
An Economic Model to Assess the Long-Term Implications for Investments Aimed at Urban Sustainability
No full textThe long “life” of investments aimed at the sustainable development of the urban and built environment generates benefits, costs, and risks over a longer period than that of the generations that evaluate them. In this regard, reference should be made to environmental externalities, such as greenhouse gas emissions, which must be taken into account in the studies. This requires the use of logic that allows attributing the right weight to inter-generational effects in economic analyses. For this reason, the paper focuses on the choice of the Social Discount Rate (SDR) to be used in Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of projects with long-term implications. In fact, social discounting is generally carried out using time-constant discount rates. Nevertheless, the resulting excessive contraction for Cash Flows (CFs) progressively more distant in time, leads to employing time-declining discount rates. Thus, the aim of this work is to propose an innovative model for the estimation of Declining Discount Rates (DDRs) based on probabilistic logic algorithms. The model, which is easy to implement in practice but always anchored to the theoretical principles of the reference literature, can become a determining tool for decision-making purposes since it leads to a good dimensioning of the long-term effects that sustainable urban development projects determine
Long-Term Effects Evaluation for Investments in the Energy and Water Sectors
No full textThe rapid economic and demographic growth of recent decades, together with the rising living standards and the unplanned urbanization process, have caused a disproportionate use of water and energy resources. This requires methodologies to support the decision-making processes capable of establishing sustainable actions and strategies. Therefore, in the Cost–Benefit Analysis (CBA) of investment projects, it is of increasing interest to also consider the extra-financial effects that are generated. For such effects, conventional discount procedures are often inadequate, especially when intergenerational environmental effects need to be assessed. This paper proposed a model that differently discounts the economic effects and environmental impacts that projects in the water and energy sectors determine. The model outlines a declining structure for both of the economic discount rate and the environmental discount rate. The main novelty of the model lies in the introduction of environmental quality into the logical-mathematical estimation scheme. Environmental quality is expressed according to the indicators that contribute to the Environmental Performance Index (EPI). The use of dual and declining discounting procedures makes it possible to give greater weight to environmental externalities, orienting guiding the decision-maker towards more sustainable investment choices
The Italian experience for the recovery of the housing market. An economic model applied to the management of local government
No full textFollowing the crisis generated by the financialization of private real-estate, construction prices have gradually decreased depriving the housing market of the necessary growth stimuli. Many countries have set up measures to revive this highly strategic area for the national economy. With reference to the Campania Region Law n. 19 dated 28 December 2009, known Housing Plan, this work has two objectives: to recognize the fundamental estimation problems that need to be solved in the implementation of the Campania Housing Plan; in addition, predict the effects of the regulations on the regional economy, both in overall terms as well as for each production sector, with particular attention being given to the construction industry. Regarding the first objective, the contents of the law are analysed on the basis of the principles that govern the appraisal. The consequences of the Campania Housing Plan on the economic system are then evaluated using input-output matrices, which are able to capture the structural relationships that exist among the various productive sectors. The numerical calculations require a preliminary investigation aimed at collecting a list of interventions approved by local governments in accordance to the Housing Plan. The cost of the works, as proposed in the applications submitted to the local administrations, is the input data for the implementation of the Social Accounting Matrix 2010 of the Campania Region
SULLA DIPENDENZA DEL PREZZO DEGLI IMMOBILI RESIDENZIALI DAI LIVELLI DI ACCESSIBILITÀ A SERVIZI E INFRASTRUTTURE DI TRASPORTO (On the Dependence of Residential Property Prices on Levels of Accessibility to Services and Transport Infrastructure)
No full textIntrinsic characteristics and urban facilities significantly influence residential property prices. However, among the effects of city facilities, those related to accessibility to the urban system services and activities have not yet been sufficiently investigated and their spatial heterogeneity is often overlooked. The aim of the paper is to define a methodology to analyse the impact of accessibility to services and infrastructures on property values. It is a three-step methodology: (i) characterisation of the price function; (ii) verifying the goodness of the model; (iii) autocorrelation analysis and implementation of spatial econometric models. A new element of this research is the construction of a panel of input variables useful for setting the price function. In fact, in addition to intrinsic characteristics and zonal characteristics, local accessibility indicators and systemwide accessibility indicators, usually not included in evaluations, are introduced. In addition, the last step of the model demonstrates the necessity of implementing spatial econometric models in cases where the levels of spatial heterogeneity are not negligible. The implementation of the model to real case studies will allow to quantify the impact of local and systemwide accessibility on residential property values
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