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Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study
Full text linkData sharing:
All data used in our study were obtained from the MCC Collaborative Research Network under a data-sharing agreement and cannot be made publicly available. Researchers can refer to collaborators of the Network, who are listed as coauthors of this Article (primary contact: Antonio Gasparrini, [email protected]), for information on accessing the data for each country. The R code is available on request, and a reproducible example is publicly available on the personal GitHub website of the first author (https://github.com/LinaMadaniyazi).For more on the MCC see https://mccstudy.lshtm.ac.uk/Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623002693#sec1 .Background:
Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones.
Methods:
In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones.
Findings:
The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario.
Interpretation:
A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates.This study was primarily supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant number JPMEERF20231007) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. MH was supported by the Japan Science and Technology Agency as part of the Strategic International Collaborative Research Program (grant number JPMJSC20E4). AG was supported by the UK Medical Research Council (grant number MR/V034162/1) and the EU's Horizon 2020 research project Exhaustion (grant number 820655). AU and JK were supported by the Czech Science Foundation (project 22–24920S). JJKJ was supported by the Academy of Finland (grant number 310372; Global Health Risks Related to Atmospheric Composition and Weather Consortium). FS was supported by the Italian Ministry of University and Research, Department of Excellence project 2023–2027, Rethinking Data Science—Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications—University of Florence
The multi-country multi-city collaborative research network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health
No full text[[abstract]]Research on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields
The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health
Full text linkResearch on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields
The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health.
Full text linkResearch on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields
The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health
No full textResearch on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields. Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of The Environmental Epidemiology. All rights reserved
The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network: An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health
No full textThe MCC Collaborative Research Network- Collaborators: Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Portugal (Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Joana Madureira).Short CommunicationsResearch on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields.What this study adds: This is the first contribution that presents the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network, detailing the origin and purpose of the collaboration and the research work undertaken so far. In addition to information on the data collection and the multi-location database gathered over the years, this contribution illustrates the study protocol and the mode of collaboration adopted by the MCC Network, based on a flexible framework that promotes data sharing and collective participation. The article also offers an overview of the publications by MCC on different research topics, as well as the methodological developments supporting these works. Finally, this article kickstarts an article collection, with a series of epidemiological works to be published in Environmental Epidemiology, featuring the latest contributions from the MCC Network on topical environmental research issues
Seasonality of mortality under climate change : a multicountry projection study
No full textBackground: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. Methods: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. Findings: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. Interpretation: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates. Funding: The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.Peer reviewe
The Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network An international research consortium investigating environment, climate, and health
Full text linkResearch on the health risks of environmental factors and climate change requires epidemiological evidence on associated health risks at a global scale. Multi-center studies offer an excellent framework for this purpose, but they present various methodological and logistical problems. This contribution illustrates the experience of the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network, an international collaboration working on a global research program on the associations between environmental stressors, climate, and health in a multi-center setting. The article illustrates the collaborative scheme based on mutual contribution and data and method sharing, describes the collection of a huge multi-location database, summarizes published research findings and future plans, and discusses advantages and limitations. The Multi-Country Multi-City represents an example of a collaborative research framework that has greatly contributed to advance knowledge on the health impacts of climate change and other environmental factors and can be replicated to address other research questions across various research fields.The MCC Collaborative Research Network: Antonio Gasparrini, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Michelle Bell, Yale University, New Haven CT, USA; Yuming Guo, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Yasushi Honda, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Veronika Huber, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Aleš Urban, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Pierre Masselot, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Francesco Sera, University of Florence, Florence, Italy; Rosana Abrutzky, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Shilu Tong, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China; Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, NSPER, São Paulo, Brazil; Eric Lavigne, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada; Patricia Matus Correa, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile; Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile; Haidong Kan, Fudan University, Shanghai, China; Samuel Osorio, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Dominic Roye, Climate Research Foundation, Madrid, Spain; Souzana Achilleos, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus; Jan Kyselý, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Hans Orru, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia; Ene Indermitte, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia; Marek Maasikmets, Estonian Environmental Research Centre, Tallinn, Estonia; Niilo Ryti, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Mathilde Pascal, Santé Publique France, Saint Maurice, France; Alexandra Schneider, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany; Susanne Breitner, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Klea Katsouyanni, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece, and Imperial College, London; Antonis Analitis, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece; Evangelia Samoli, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece; Hanne Krage Carlsen, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden; Fatemeh Mayvaneh, University of Münster, Münster, Germany; Alireza Entezari, Hakim Sabzevari University, Khorasan Razavi, Iran; Patrick Goodman, Technological University Dublin, Ireland; Ariana Zeka, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK; Raanan Raz, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel; Paola Michelozzi, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy; Francesca de’Donato, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy; Matteo Scortichini, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy; Massimo Stafoggia, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy; Masahiro Hashizume, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Yoonhee Kim, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Chris Fook Sheng Ng, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Barrak Alahmad, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; John Paul Cauchy, Malta; Magali Hurtado Diaz, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico; Eunice Elizabeth Félix Arellano, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico; Ala Overcenco, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Moldova; Jochem Klompmaker, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, the Netherlands; Shilpa Rao, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway; Gabriel Carrasco, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Xerxes Seposo, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan; Paul Lester Carlos Chua, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Susana das Neves Pereira da Silva, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal; Joana Madureira, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Iulian-Horia Holobaca, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania; Ivana Cvijanovic, Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain; Malcolm Mistry, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Noah Scovronick, Emory University, Atlanta, USA; Fiorella Acquaotta, University of Torino, Italy; Rebecca M. Garland, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; Ho Kim, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Whanhee Lee, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea; Aurelio Tobias, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; Carmen Íñiguez, Universitat de València, Spain; Bertil Forsberg, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Martina S. Ragettli, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwill, Switzerland; Yue Leon Guo, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan; Shih-Chun Pan, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Shanshan Li, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Ben Armstrong, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Valentina Colistro, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay; Antonella Zanobetti, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Joel Schwartz, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA; Tran Ngoc Dang, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam; Do Van Dung, University of Medicine and Pharmacy, Ho Chi Minh City, VietNam). Past members: Simona Fratianni, University of Torino, Italy; Julio Cesar Cruz, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico; Caroline Ameling, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands; Daniel Oudin Åström, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden.Peer reviewe
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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