1,721,018 research outputs found
STORM tropical cyclone wind speed return periods
No full textDatasets containing tropical cyclone maximum wind speed (in m/s) return periods, generated using the STORM datasets (see https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0381-2). Return periods were empirically calculated using Weibull's plotting formula. The STORM_FIXED_RETURN_PERIOD dataset contains maximum wind speeds for a fixed set of return periods at 10 km resolution in every ocean basin. The STORM_FIXED_WIND_SPEED dataset contains return periods for a fixed set of maximum wind speeds at 10 km resolution in every ocean basin. The STORM_CITIES dataset contains return periods at fixed wind speeds and wind speeds at fixed return periods (on two seperate sheets), occurring within 100 km from a selection of 18 coastal cities. The STORM_ISLANDS contains return periods at fixed wind speeds and wind speeds at fixed return periods (on two seperate sheets), occurring within 100 km from the capital city of an island. We included the Small Island Developing States and a set of other islands.</span
Influence of El Niño Southern oscillation on global coastal flooding
No full textAnomalous atmosphere-ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drive interannual variations in mean and extreme sea levels. Climate change may lead to more frequent extreme ENSO events in the future. Therefore, it is important to enhance our understanding of ENSO's influence on coastal flood impacts. We assessed ENSO’s influence on extreme sea levels using a global reanalysis of tides and storm surges. This allows for a full coverage of the global coastline from 1979 to 2014. A mean sea level component is added to account for steric effects. This results in a substantial improvement in the representation of the seasonal and interannual variability. Our results show significant correlations across the Pacific between ENSO and extreme sea levels (expressed as 95th annual percentiles), which is consistent with previous studies based on tide gauge observations. Average anomalies in the annual percentiles over El Niño years compared to neutral years show similar patterns. When examining total sea levels, results are largely statistically insignificant. This is because in many regions large tidal variability dominates over the other components. Combining sea levels with an inundation and impact model shows that ENSO has a significant but small effect on the number of people potentially exposed to flooding at the globally aggregated-scale. Our result demonstrate that a model-based approach allows for an assessment of the influence of ENSO on coastal flood impacts, and could be used to assess impacts of future changes in ENSO
Estimation of global tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities using the STORM dataset
No full textTropical cyclones (TC) are one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters. To mitigate the impact of such disasters, it is essential to know extreme exceedance probabilities, also known as return periods, of TC hazards. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of the STORM dataset, containing synthetic TCs equivalent of 10,000 years under present-day climate conditions, for the calculation of TC wind speed return periods. The temporal length of the STORM dataset allows us to empirically calculate return periods up to 10,000 years without fitting an extreme value distribution. We show that fitting a distribution typically results in higher wind speeds compared to their empirically derived counterparts, especially for return periods exceeding 100-yr. By applying a parametric wind model to the TC tracks, we derive return periods at 10 km resolution in TC-prone regions. The return periods are validated against observations and previous studies, and show a good agreement. The accompanying global-scale wind speed return period dataset is publicly available and can be used for high-resolution TC risk assessments
STORM IBTrACS present climate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks
No full textDatasets consisting of 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, generated using the Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model (STORM) algorithm (see Bloemendaal et al, Generation of a Global Synthetic Tropical cyclone Hazard Dataset using STORM, in review). The dataset is generated using historical data from IBTrACS and resembles present-climate conditions. The data can be used to calculate tropical cyclone risk in all (coastal) regions prone to tropical cyclones.</span
STORM EC-Earth present climate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks
No full textDatasets consisting of 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, generated using the Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model (STORM) algorithm (see Bloemendaal et al, Generation of a Global Synthetic Tropical cyclone Hazard Dataset using STORM, in prep.). The dataset is generated using data the EC-Earth model and resembles present-climate conditions. The data can be used to calculate tropical cyclone risk in all (coastal) regions prone to tropical cyclones.</span
Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries
No full textWhen river and coastal floods coincide, their impacts are often worse than when they occur in isolation; such floods are examples of ‘compound events’. To better understand the impacts of these compound events, we require an improved understanding of the dependence between coastal and river flooding on a global scale. Therefore, in this letter, we: provide the first assessment and mapping of the dependence between observed high sea-levels and high river discharge for deltas and estuaries around the globe; and demonstrate how this dependence may influence the joint probability of floods exceeding both the design discharge and design sea-level. The research was carried out by analysing the statistical dependence between observed sea-levels (and skew surge) from the GESLA-2 dataset, and river discharge using gauged data from the Global Runoff Data Centre, for 187 combinations of stations across the globe. Dependence was assessed using Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient () and copula models. We find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 22% of the stations studied, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 36% of the stations studied. Allowing a time-lag between the two variables up to 5 days, we find significant dependence for skew surge conditional on annual maximum discharge at 56% of stations, and for discharge conditional on annual maximum skew surge at 54% of stations. Using copula models, we show that the joint exceedance probability of events in which both the design discharge and design sea-level are exceeded can be several magnitudes higher when the dependence is considered, compared to when independence is assumed. We discuss several implications, showing that flood risk assessments in these regions should correctly account for these joint exceedance probabilities
Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM
No full textOver the past few decades, the world has seen substantial tropical cyclone (TC) damages, with the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria entering the top-5 costliest Atlantic hurricanes ever. Calculating TC risk at a global scale, however, has proven difficult given the limited temporal and spatial information on TCs across much of the global coastline. Here, we present a novel database on TC characteristics on a global scale using a newly developed synthetic resampling algorithm we call STORM (Synthetic Tropical cyclOne geneRation Model). STORM can be applied to any meteorological dataset to statistically resample and model TC tracks and intensities. We apply STORM to extracted TCs from 38 years of historical data from IBTrACS to statistically extend this dataset to 10,000 years of TC activity. We show that STORM preserves the TC statistics as found in the original dataset. The STORM dataset can be used for TC hazard assessments and risk modeling in TC-prone regions
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
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