16 research outputs found
Analysis of soil physico-chemical properties of guava orchard in multi zones of district Larkana, Sindh, Pakistan
No full textClinical outcomes of renal and liver transplant patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve replacement: analysis of national inpatient sample database
No full textBackground: The transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has recently gained traction as a viable alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR), but data on its safety and clinical outcomes in transplant patients are limited.
Methods: We retrieved relevant demographic and clinical outcome data from the U.S. National Inpatient Sample (NIS) for the year 2012–2015. The clinical outcomes of TAVR in renal transplant (RT) and liver transplant (LT) were ascertained using an adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) on Mantzel–Hensel test.
Results: A total of 62,399 TAVR patients were identified; 62,180 (99.6%) with no history of transplant, 219 (0.4%) with RT and 85 (0.1%) with LT. There was no significant difference in odds of in-hospital mortality (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.25–1.5, p = 0.37), major cardiovascular, respiratory or neurological complications in patients with and without RT. Similarly, the odds of cardiac complications, renal and neurological complications between patients with and without LT were identical.
Conclusion: Compared to non-transplant patients, TAVR appears to be associated with similar odds of major systemic complications or mortality in patients with a history of kidney or liver transplant
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textNatalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Mohammad Abdollahi, Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Hassan Abolhassani, Meysam Abolmaali, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Tadele Girum Girum Adal, Mesafint Molla Adane, Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Adeagbo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Shadi Afyouni, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Hossein Akbarialiabad, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Sreelatha Akkala, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Mohammad Al Qadire, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Mohammed Albashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Hediyeh Alemi, Sharifullah Alemi, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Khalid F Alhabib, Noora Alhajri, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Abid Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Mohammad A M Aljasir, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sabah Al-Marwani, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Basem Al-Omari, Jaber S Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Safwat Aly, Karem H Alzoubi, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, Sohrab Amiri, Irene Gyamfuah Ampomah, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Adnan Ansar, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Saeid Anvari, SALEHA ANWAR, Razique Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Timur Aripov, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Zatollah Asemi, Saeed Asgary, Mona Asghariahmadabad, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Abolfazl Avan, Amlaku Mulat Aweke, Getnet Melaku Ayele, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Rui M S Azevedo, Ahmed Y Azzam, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L Baker, Abdulaziz T Bako, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Madhan Balasubramanian, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, Mehmet Firat Baran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Sandra Barteit, Zarrin Basharat, Asma'u I J Bashir, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Sanjay Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Kavita Batra, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Alehegn Bekele, Sefealem Assefa Belay, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Michelle L Bell, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Apostolos Beloukas, Isabela M Bensenor, Zombor Berezvai, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Veera R Bitra, Tone Bjørge, Elye Bliss, Micheal Kofi Boachie, Anca Vasilica Bobirca, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Basara, Souad Bouaoud, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Dana Bryazka, Norma B Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Yasser Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Daniela Calina, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Fan Cao, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Yaacoub Chahine, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sarika Chaturvedi, Malizgani Paul Chavula, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Simiao Chen, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Ju-Huei Chien, Patrick R Ching, William C S Cho, Sungchul Choi, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Chung, Sheng-Chia Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Iolanda Cioffi, Raffaela Ciuffreda, Rafael M Claro, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Tukur Dahiru, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Mohsen Dashti, Anna Dastiridou, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Kairat Davletov, Aklilu Tamire Debele, Shayom Debopadhaya, Somayeh Delavari, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Dessalegn Demeke, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Vishal R Dhulipala, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Michael J Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D'Oria, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Leila Doshmangir, Robert Kokou Dowou, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dsouza, John Dube, Joe Duprey, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Hisham Atan Edinur, Kristina Edvardsson, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Michael Ekholuenetale, Maha El Tantawi, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Legesse Tesfaye Elilo, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohamed A Elmonem, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Amir Emami Zeydi, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Francesco Esposito, Kara Estep, Farshid Etaee, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh, Luca Falzone, Ali Faramarzi, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Sam Farmer, Andre Faro, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Hamid Feroze, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kayode Raphael Fowobaje, Kate Louise Francis, Alberto Freitas, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Blima Fux, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, M.A. Garcia-Gordillo, Naval Garg, Rupesh K Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Tesfay B B Gebremariam, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Yohannes Fikadu Geda, Simona Roxana Georgescu, Urge Gerema, Habtamu Geremew, Motuma Erena Getachew, Peter W Gething, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Mahsa Ghorbani, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Matteo Giorgi, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Laszlo Göbölös, Amit Goel, Ali Golchin, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Houman Goudarzi, Alessandra C Goulart, Anmol Goyal, Simon Matthew Graham, Michal Grivna, Shi-Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Stefano Guicciardi, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Mohak Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Nadia M Hamdy, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Qiuxia Han, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J Hankey, Md Nuruzzaman Haque, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Ikramul Hasan, Mohammad Jahid Hasan, S.M. Mahmudul Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Ikrama Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Bartosz Helfer, Mehdi Hemmati, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamran Hessami, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsairi, Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, M Mamun Huda, Ayesha Humayun, Javid Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Md. 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Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textFunding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Peer ReviewedArticle signat per 1420 autors/es. Membres del GBD 2021 Forecasting Collaborators:
Stein Emil Vollset*, Hazim S Ababneh, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Hedayat Abbastabar, Abdallah H A Abd Al Magied, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Atef Abdelkader, Michael Abdelmasseh, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Parsa Abdi, Mohammad Abdollahi, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Richard Gyan Aboagye, Hassan Abolhassani, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Abdorrahim Absalan, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Hana Jihad Jihad Abukhadijah, Giovanni Addolorato, Victor Adekanmbi, Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa, Rishan Adha, Ripon Kumar Adhikary, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Leticia Akua Adzigbli, Fatemeh Afrashteh, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Faith Agbozo, Antonella Agodi, Anurag Agrawal, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Shahzaib 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Mahadeshwara Prasad, Mehrdad Mahalleh, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Elham Mahmoudi, Golnaz Mahmoudvand, Maureen Makama, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Yosef Manla, Ali Mansour, Mohammad Hadi Mansouri, Pejman Mansouri, Vahid Mansouri, Marjan Mansourian, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Bishnu P Marasini, Hamid Reza Marateb, Joemer C Maravilla, Parham Mardi, Abdoljalal Marjani, Hamed Markazi Moghadam, Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo, Gabriel Martinez, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Miquel Martorell, Wolfgang Marx, Roy Rillera Marzo, Sahar Masoudi, Yasith Mathangasinghe, Alexander G Mathioudakis, Medha Mathur, Navgeet Mathur, Neeta Mathur, Fernanda Penido Matozinhos, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard James Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Mahsa Mayeli, Mohsen Mazidi, Antonio Mazzotti, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura W McKowen, Michael A McPhail, Steven M McPhail, Asim Mehmood, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Sepideh Mehravar, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Endalkachew Belayneh Melese, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, George A Mensah, Laverne G Mensah, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera M Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mettananda, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mhlanga, Tomasz Miazgowski, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá, Ted R Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Alireza Mirahmadi, Antonio Mirijello, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Roya Mirzaei, Philip B Mitchell, Chaitanya Mittal, Madeline E Moberg, Atousa Moghadam Fard, Seyedehfatemeh Mohajelin, Ashraf Mohamadkhani, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F H Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Ameen Mosa Mohammad, Soheil Mohammadi, Hussen Mohammed, Mustapha Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Mariam Molokhia, Shaher Mohammad Momani, Sara Momtazmanesh, Lorenzo Monasta, Stefania Mondello, Mohammad Ali Moni, Fateme Montazeri, AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Paula Moraga, Lidia Morawska, Rafael Silveira Moreira, Negar Morovatdar, Shane Douglas Morrison, Abbas Mosapour, Jonathan F Mosser, Elias Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Vincent Mougin, Parsa Mousavi, Matías Mrejen, Sumaira Mubarik, Ulrich Otto Mueller, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Khaled M Musallam, Ana-Maria Musina, Ghulam Mustafa, Woojae Myung, Ayoub Nafei, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R Naik, Gurudatta Naik, Firzan Nainu, Soroush Najdaghi, Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari, Vinay Nangia, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Shumaila Nargus, Delaram Narimani Davani, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G Nascimento, Abdallah Y Naser, Abdulqadir J Nashwan, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Samidi N K Navaratna, Muhammad Naveed, Nawsherwan , Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Hadush Negash, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Chakib Nejjari, Soroush Nematollahi, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Marie Ng, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Anh Hoang Nguyen, Dang H Nguyen, Duc Hoang Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Nhan Nguyen, Nhien Ngoc Y Nguyen, Phat Tuan Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Duc Nguyen Tran Minh, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Mahdieh Niknam, Ali Nikoobar, Amin Reza Nikpoor, Nasrin Nikravangolsefid, Efaq Ali Noman, Shuhei Nomura, Syed Toukir Ahmed Noor, Nafise Noroozi, Mehran Nouri, Majid Nozari, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, George Ntaios, Mengistu H Nunemo, Dieta Nurrika, Jerry John Nutor, Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam, Bogdan Oancea, Kehinde O Obamiro, Ismail A Odetokun, Michael Safo Oduro, Oluwaseun Adeolu Ogundijo, Adesola Adenike Ogunfowokan, Abiola Ogunkoya, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, In-Hwan Oh, Tolulope R Ojo-Akosile, Hassan Okati-Aliabad, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Andrew T Olagunju, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Yinka Doris Oluwafemi, Hany A Omar, Goran Latif Omer, Sokking Ong, Sandersan Onie, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Abdulahi Opejin Opejin, Michal Ordak, Verner N Orish, Alberto Ortiz, Esteban Ortiz-Prado, Wael M S Osman, Sergej M Ostojic, Samuel M Ostroff, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Adrian Otoiu, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Amel Ouyahia, Mayowa O Owolabi, Oyetunde T Oyeyemi, Ahmad Ozair, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Alicia Padron-Monedero, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Pramod Kumar Pal, Tamás Palicz, Feng Pan, Hai-Feng Pan, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Anamika Pandey, Victoria Pando-Robles, Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan, Georgios D Panos, Leonidas D Panos, Ioannis Pantazopoulos, Anca Mihaela Pantea Stoian, Romil R Parikh, Eun-Kee Park, Seoyeon Park, Sungchul Park, Nicholas Parsons, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Maja Pasovic, Roberto Passera, Jay Patel, Aslam Ramjan Pathan, Shankargouda Patil, Dimitrios Patoulias, Shrikant Pawar, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Spencer A Pease, Amy E Peden, Paolo Pedersini, Umberto Pensato, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Prince Peprah, Marcos Pereira, Maria Odete Pereira, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Konrad Pesudovs, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Hoang Tran Pham, Anil K Philip, Michael R Phillips, Manon Pigeolet, Michael A Piradov, Enrico Pisoni, Evgenii Plotnikov, Dimitri Poddighe, Roman V Polibin, Ramesh Poluru, Ville T Ponkilainen, Djordje S Popovic, Maarten J Postma, Ahmad Pour-Rashidi, Disha Prabhu, Sergio I Prada, Jalandhar Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Akila Prashant, Elton Junio Sady Prates, Tina Priscilla, Hery Purnobasuki, Bharathi M Purohit, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Nameer Hashim Qasim, Ibrahim Qattea, Asma Saleem Qazi, Gangzhen Qian, Mehrdad Rabiee Rad, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Hadi Raeisi Shahraki, Quinn Rafferty, Alberto Raggi, Cat Raggi, Nasiru Raheem, Fakher Rahim, Md Jillur Rahim, Sarvenaz Rahimibarghani, Md Mijanur Mijanur Rahman Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Tafhimur Rahman, Amir Masoud Rahmani, Mohammad Rahmanian, Nazanin Rahmanian, Rahem Rahmati, Setyaningrum Rahmawaty, Diego Raimondo, Adarsh Raja, Prashant Rajput, Majed Ramadan, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Sheena Ramazanu, Pramod W Ramteke, Kritika Rana, Rishabh Kumar Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Amey Rane, Chythra R Rao, Mithun Rao, Davide Rasella, Vahid Rashedi, Ahmed Mustafa Rashid, Ashkan Rasouli-Saravani, Prateek Rastogi, Azad Rasul, Devarajan Rathish, Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Ramin Ravangard, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Rabail Zehra Raza, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Lennart Reifels, Marissa B Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Kannan RR Rengasamy, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Serge Resnikoff, Stefano Restaino, Luis Felipe Reyes, Nazila Rezaei, Negar Rezaei, Zahra Sadat Rezaei, Mohsen Rezaeian, Taeho Gregory Rhee, Jennifer Rickard, Toshana Robalik, Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden, Hermano Alexandre Lima Rocha, Mónica Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Leonardo Roever, Debby Syahru Romadlon, Luca Ronfani, Moustaq Karim Khan Rony, Gholamreza Roshandel, Kunle Rotimi, Himanshu Sekhar Rout, Bedanta Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, Guilherme de Andrade Ruela, Susan Fred Rumisha, Tilleye Runghien, Michele Russo, Aly M A Saad, Korosh Saber, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Cameron John Sabet, Siamak Sabour, Perminder S Sachdev, Adam Saddler, Bashdar Abuzed Sadee, Masoumeh Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Sher Zaman Safi, Rajesh Sagar, Alireza Saghafi, Dominic Sagoe, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Pragyan Monalisa Sahoo, Mirza Rizwan Sajid, Nasir Salam, Payman Salamati, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed A Saleh, Leili Salehi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Aanuoluwa James Salemcity, Sohrab Salimi, Hossein Samadi Kafil, Saad Samargandy, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Francesca Sanna, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Bruno Piassi Sao Jose, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Aswini Saravanan, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C Sarode, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Abu Sayeed, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Benedikt Michael Schaarschmidt, Christophe Schinckus, Art Schuermans, Austin E Schumacher, Aletta Elisabeth Schutte, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Siddharthan Selvaraj, Mohammad H Semreen, Sabyasachi Senapati, Pallav Sengupta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Dragos Serban, Yashendra Sethi, All
Self-reported health and smoking status, and body mass index: a case-control comparison based on GEN SCRIP (GENetics of SChizophRenia In Pakistan) data
No full textIntroduction Individuals with schizophrenia are at a high risk of physical health comorbidities and premature mortality. Cardiovascular and metabolic causes are an important contributor. There are gaps in monitoring, documenting and managing these physical health comorbidities. Because of their condition, patients themselves may not be aware of these comorbidities and may not be able to follow a lifestyle that prevents and manages the complications. In many low-income and middle-income countries including Pakistan, the bulk of the burden of care for those struggling with schizophrenia falls on the families.Objectives To determine the rate of self-reported physical health disorders and risk factors, like body mass index (BMI) and smoking, associated with cardiovascular and metabolic disorders in cases of schizophrenia compared with a group of mentally healthy controls.Design A case-controlled, cross-sectional multicentre study of patients with schizophrenia in Pakistan.Settings Multiple data collection sites across the country for patients, that is, public and private psychiatric OPDs (out patient departments), specialised psychiatric care facilities, and psychiatric wards of teaching and district level hospitals. Healthy controls were enrolled from the community.Participants We report a total of 6838 participants’ data with (N 3411 (49.9%)) cases of schizophrenia compared with a group of healthy controls (N 3427 (50.1%)).Results BMI (OR 0.98 (CI 0.97 to 0.99), p=0.0025), and the rate of smoking is higher in patients with schizophrenia than in controls. Problems with vision (OR 0.13 (0.08 to 0.2), joint pain (OR 0.18 (0.07 to 0.44)) and high cholesterol (OR 0.13 (0.05 to 0.35)) have higher reported prevalence in controls. The cases describe more physical health disorders in the category ‘other’ (OR 4.65 (3.01 to 7.18)). This captures residual disorders not listed in the questionnaire.Conclusions Participants with schizophrenia in comparison with controls report more disorders. The access in the ‘other’ category may be a reflection of undiagnosed disorders
Global, regional, and national burden of household air pollution, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Despite a substantial reduction in the use of solid fuels for cooking worldwide, exposure to household air pollution (HAP) remains a leading global risk factor, contributing considerably to the burden of disease. We present a comprehensive analysis of spatial patterns and temporal trends in exposure and attributable disease from 1990 to 2021, featuring substantial methodological updates compared with previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, including improved exposure estimations accounting for specific fuel types.
Methods: We estimated HAP exposure and trends and attributable burden for cataract, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, tracheal cancer, bronchus cancer, lung cancer, stroke, type 2 diabetes, and causes mediated via adverse reproductive outcomes for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We first estimated the mean fuel type-specific concentrations (in μg/m3) of fine particulate matter (PM2·5) pollution to which individuals using solid fuels for cooking were exposed, categorised by fuel type, location, year, age, and sex. Using a systematic review of the epidemiological literature and a newly developed meta-regression tool (meta-regression: Bayesian, regularised, trimmed), we derived disease-specific, non-parametric exposure–response curves to estimate relative risk as a function of PM2·5 concentration. We combined our exposure estimates and relative risks to estimate population attributable fractions and attributable burden for each cause by sex, age, location, and year.
Findings: In 2021, 2·67 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·63–2·71) people, 33·8% (95% UI 33·2–34·3) of the global population, were exposed to HAP from all sources at a mean concentration of 84·2 μg/m3. Although these figures show a notable reduction in the percentage of the global population exposed in 1990 (56·7%, 56·4–57·1), in absolute terms, there has been only a decline of 0·35 billion (10%) from the 3·02 billion people exposed to HAP in 1990. In 2021, 111 million (95% UI 75·1–164) global disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were attributable to HAP, accounting for 3·9% (95% UI 2·6–5·7) of all DALYs. The rate of global, HAP-attributable DALYs in 2021 was 1500·3 (95% UI 1028·4–2195·6) age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population, a decline of 63·8% since 1990, when HAP-attributable DALYs comprised 4147·7 (3101·4–5104·6) age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population. HAP-attributable burden remained highest in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, with 4044·1 (3103·4–5219·7) and 3213·5 (2165·4–4409·4) age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population, respectively. The rate of HAP-attributable DALYs was higher for males (1530·5, 1023·4–2263·6) than for females (1318·5, 866·1–1977·2). Approximately one-third of the HAP-attributable burden (518·1, 410·1–641·7) was mediated via short gestation and low birthweight. Decomposition of trends and drivers behind changes in the HAP-attributable burden highlighted that declines in exposures were counteracted by population growth in most regions of the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation: Although the burden attributable to HAP has decreased considerably, HAP remains a substantial risk factor, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. Our comprehensive estimates of HAP exposure and attributable burden offer a robust and reliable resource for health policy makers and practitioners to precisely target and tailor health interventions. Given the persistent and substantial impact of HAP in many regions and countries, it is imperative to accelerate efforts to transition under-resourced communities to cleaner household energy sources. Such initiatives are crucial for mitigating health risks and promoting sustainable development, ultimately improving the quality of life and health outcomes for millions of people.
Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Global, regional, and national burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis, 1990-2021, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Asthma and atopic dermatitis are common allergic conditions that contribute to substantial health loss, economic burden, and pain across individuals of all ages worldwide. Therefore, as a component of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we present updated estimates of the prevalence, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), incidence, and deaths due to asthma and atopic dermatitis and the burden attributable to modifiable risk factors, with forecasted prevalence up to 2050. Methods: Asthma and atopic dermatitis prevalence, incidence, DALYs, and mortality, with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), were estimated for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. A systematic review identified data from 389 sources for asthma and 316 for atopic dermatitis, which were further pooled using the Bayesian meta-regression tool. We also described the age-standardised DALY rates of asthma attributable to four modifiable risk factors: high BMI, occupational asthmagens, smoking, and nitrogen dioxide pollution. Furthermore, as a secondary analysis, prevalence was forecasted to 2050 using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), air pollution, and smoking as predictors for asthma and atopic dermatitis. To assess trends in the burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis before (2010-19) and during (2019-21) the COVID-19 pandemic, we compared their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs). Findings: In 2021, there were an estimated 260 million (95% UI 227-298) individuals with asthma and 129 million (124-134) individuals with atopic dermatitis worldwide. Asthma cases declined from 287 million (250-331) in 1990 to 238 million (209-272) in 2005 but increased to 260 million in 2021. Atopic dermatitis cases consistently rose from 107 million (103-112) in 1990 to 129 million (124-134) in 2021. However, age-standardised prevalence rates decreased-by 40·0% (from 5568·3 per 100 000 to 3340·1 per 100 000) for asthma and 8·3% (from 1885·4 per 100 000 to 1728·5 per 100 000) for atopic dermatitis. In 2021, there were substantial variations in the burden of asthma and atopic dermatitis across different SDI groups, with the highest age-standardised DALY rate found in south Asia for asthma (465·0 [357·2-648·9] per 100 000) and the high-income super-region for atopic dermatitis (3552·5 [3407·2-3706·1] per 100 000). During the COVID-19 pandemic, the decline in asthma prevalence had stagnated (AAPC pre-pandemic -1·39% [-2·07 to -0·71] and during the pandemic 0·47% [-1·86 to 2·79]; p=0·020); however, there was no significant difference in atopic dermatitis prevalence in the same period (pre-pandemic -0·28% [-0·33 to -0·22] and during the pandemic -0·35% [-0·78 to 0·08]; p=0·20). Modifiable risk factors were responsible for 29·9% of the global asthma DALY burden; among them, high BMI was the greatest contributor (39·4 [19·6-60·2] per 100 000), followed by occupational asthmagens (20·8 [16·7-26·5] per 100 000) across all regions. The age-standardised DALY rate of asthma attributable to high BMI was highest in high-SDI settings, whereas the contribution of occupational asthmagens was highest in low-SDI settings. According to our forecasting models, we expect 275 million (224-330) asthma cases and 148 million (140-158) atopic dermatitis cases in 2050, with population growth driving this increase. However, age-standardised prevalence rates are expected to remain stable (-23·2% [-44·4 to 5·3] for asthma and -1·4% [-9·1 to 7·0] for atopic dermatitis) from 2021 to 2050. Interpretation: Although the increases in the total number of asthma and atopic dermatitis cases will probably continue until 2050, age-standardised prevalence rates are expected to remain stable. A considerable portion of the global burden could be managed through efforts to address modifiable risk factors. Additionally, the contribution of risk factors to the burden substantially varied by SDI, which suggests the need for tailored initiatives for specific SDI settings. The growing number of individuals expected to be affected by asthma and atopic dermatitis in the future suggests that it is essential to improve our understanding of risk factors for asthma and atopic dermatitis and collect disease prevalence data that are globally generalisable. Funding: Gates Foundation
Global, regional and national burden of dietary iron deficiency from 1990 to 2021: a Global Burden of Disease study
No full text: Although iron deficiency is well documented, less is known about dietary involvement in symptomatic iron deficiency manifesting in medical conditions. In this study, we quantified the global burden of dietary iron deficiency, focusing on where inadequate dietary iron intake leads to clinical manifestations such as anemia. We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 to estimate dietary iron deficiency prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), stratified by age, sex, geography and socio-demographic index (SDI) across 204 countries. In 2021, global age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates were 16,434.4 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 16,186.2-16,689.0) and 423.7 (285.3-610.8) per 100,000 population, with rates decreasing by 9.8% (8.1-11.3) and 18.2% (15.4-21.1) from 1990 to 2021. A higher burden was observed in female individual (age-standardized prevalence, 21,334.8 (95% UI, 20,984.8-21,697.4); DALYs, 598.0 (402.6-854.4)) than in male individual ((age-standardized prevalence, 11,684.7 (11,374.6-12,008.8); DALYs, 253.0 (167.3-371.0)). High-SDI countries presented greater improvement, with a 25.7% reduction compared to 11.5% in low-SDI countries. Despite global improvements, dietary iron deficiency remains a major health concern with a global prevalence of 16.7%, particularly affecting female individuals, children and residents in low-SDI countries. Urgent interventions through supplementation, food security measures and fortification initiatives are essential
Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackgroundOverweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050. MethodsLeveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends. FindingsRates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity. InterpretationNo country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.This study was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1152504)
Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions. In this Article we report current estimates of overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence, progress over time, and forecasts to inform specific actions. Methods: Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5–14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15–24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which leveraged temporal and spatial correlation in epidemiological trends to ensure comparability of results across time and geography. Prevalence forecasts from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a generalised ensemble modelling approach assuming continuation of current trends. For every age-sex-location population across time (1990–2050), we estimated obesity (vs overweight) predominance using the log ratio of obesity percentage to overweight percentage. Findings: Between 1990 and 2021, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents doubled, and that of obesity alone tripled. By 2021, 93·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 89·6–96·6) individuals aged 5–14 years and 80·6 million (78·2–83·3) aged 15–24 years had obesity. At the super-region level in 2021, the prevalence of overweight and of obesity was highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and the greatest increase from 1990 to 2021 was seen in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Taiwan [province of China], Maldives, and China). By 2021, for females in both age groups, many countries in Australasia (eg, Australia) and in high-income North America (eg, Canada) had already transitioned to obesity predominance, as had males and females in a number of countries in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Qatar) and Oceania (eg, Cook Islands and American Samoa). From 2022 to 2050, global increases in overweight (not obesity) prevalence are forecasted to stabilise, yet the increase in the absolute proportion of the global population with obesity is forecasted to be greater than between 1990 and 2021, with substantial increases forecast between 2022 and 2030, which continue between 2031 and 2050. By 2050, super-region obesity prevalence is forecasted to remain highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and forecasted increases in obesity are still expected to be largest across southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Timor-Leste and North Korea), but also in south Asia (eg, Nepal and Bangladesh). Compared with those aged 15–24 years, in most super-regions (except Latin America and the Caribbean and the high-income super-region) a greater proportion of those aged 5–14 years are forecasted to have obesity than overweight by 2050. Globally, 15·6% (12·7–17·2) of those aged 5–14 years are forecasted to have obesity by 2050 (186 million [141–221]), compared with 14·2% (11·4–15·7) of those aged 15–24 years (175 million [136–203]). We forecasted that by 2050, there will be more young males (aged 5–14 years) living with obesity (16·5% [13·3–18·3]) than overweight (12·9% [12·2–13·6]); while for females (aged 5–24 years) and older males (aged 15–24 years), overweight will remain more prevalent than obesity. At a regional level, the following populations are forecast to have transitioned to obesity (vs overweight) predominance before 2041–50: children and adolescents (males and females aged 5–24 years) in north Africa and the Middle East and Tropical Latin America; males aged 5–14 years in east Asia, central and southern sub-Saharan Africa, and central Latin America; females aged 5–14 years in Australasia; females aged 15–24 years in Australasia, high-income North America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa; and males aged 15–24 years in high-income North America. Interpretation: Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents. Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilise due to further increases in the population who have obesity. Increases in obesity are expected to continue for all populations in all world regions. Because substantial change is forecasted to occur between 2022 and 2030, immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council
