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Analysis of energy saving potentials in energy generation: Final results
Get PDFThe introduction of best available technologies in the current fleet of fossil-fuel power generation could generate primary energy savings of 14-18% by 2030, compared to primary energy consumption in 2010.
A gradual replacement of power plants at the end of their lifetime, by the best available technology could lead to around 750 Mtoe of total primary energy savings over the period 2011-2030. Total CO2 emissions over the period would be reduced by 2.7 Gt. The largest potential is in Member States with large coal-fired power plant fleets.
These potentials are slightly higher than the PRIMES Reference scenario. In addition, around half of the potential in the PRIMES Reference scenario is due to a shift away from fossil fuels, rather than efficiency improvements. The potential is also much higher than the PRIMES Efficiency scenario. In the latter scenario, the shift away from fossil fuels is much less pronounced than in the PRIMES Reference scenario.
The results are strongly dependent on the assumptions made, hence care should be taken when interpreting them.JRC.F.6 - Energy systems evaluatio
Essays on Risk in Energy Economics
Get PDFEnergy markets are characterized by large uncertainties and risks. The annual volatility of the Brent oil price is 28%, meaning that there is a 1-in-3 chance that next year's oil price will be more than 28% higher or lower than this year's price. Similarly, the annual volatility of gas prices for domestic consumers in Belgium/Brussels is 14%. The uncertainty is much larger than in many other goods and services, such as cars, housing, or travel, to name but a few household spending categories. This phenomenon is all the more important since energy is an essential input to many production processes and consumption patterns.
The risk in energy markets has several underlying causes: technical, such as the recent application of new techniques that allow for the extraction of ‘shale gas’, which has depressed gas prices in the US; macroeconomic, such as the drop in oil demand following the 2008/2009 global economic crisis, which roughly halved oil prices; and political, such as the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis in 2006 and 2009, or the first oil shock in the 1970s.
Part I of this thesis deals with political risk, and analyzes decisions of resource-rich countries that affect the allocation of energy-related rents. Chapter 2 studies the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis and how it impacts European import strategies. Chapter 3 investigates the taxation of resource extraction in petroleum-producing countries. Chapter 4 also studies taxation, but focuses on a resource that is mostly exploited in Western countries, namely nuclear power. Chapter 5 also deals with Western countries and explores the possible outcome of potential international negotiations on the distribution of rents arising from a trans-European CO2 pipeline network for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).
Part II of this thesis investigates how firms can protect themselves against the risks in energy supply, by hedging their exposure. The main challenge in hedging is that energy markets are typically very incomplete, in that not enough different contracts (such as options) exist to enable firms to hedge their exposure completely. Chapter 6 analyzes the effect of market incompleteness on welfare and investment incentives in the specific case of an electricity market with demand uncertainty. Chapter 7 provides a generalization of the theory for a generic market structure with non-specified uncertainty.JRC.F.6 - Energy systems evaluatio
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector
No full textThe high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to 'crowding-out' of physical investments because firms' limited risk-taking capabilities are being used to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete.Electricity markets Financial markets Market completeness Hedging Investments Options
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Market Completeness - How Options Affect Hedging and Investments in the Electricity Sector
No full textThe high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to "crowding-out" of physical investments because capital is being used more profitably to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete.JRC.F.6 - Energy systems evaluatio
Market completeness: How options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector
No full textThe high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to ‘crowding-out’ of physical investments because firms’ limited risk-taking capabilities are being used to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete
Market completeness: how options affect hedging and investments in the electricity sector.
Get PDFThe high volatility of electricity markets gives producers and retailers an incentive to hedge their exposure to electricity prices by buying and selling derivatives. This paper studies how welfare and investment incentives are affected when an increasing number of derivatives are introduced. It develops an equilibrium model of the electricity market with risk averse firms and a set of traded financial products, more specifically: a forward contract and an increasing number of options. We first show that aggregate welfare (the sum of individual firms' utility) increases with the number of derivatives offered, although most of the benefits are captured with one to three options. Secondly, power plant investments typically increase because additional derivatives enable better hedging of investments. However, the availability of derivatives sometimes leads to ‘crowding-out’ of physical investments because capital is being used more profitably to speculate on financial markets. Finally, we illustrate that players basing their investment decisions on risk-free probabilities inferred from market prices, may significantly overinvest when markets are not sufficiently complete.
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