279 research outputs found
Balance Sheet Effects in Currency Crises: Evidence from Brazil
No full text"Third-generation currency crises models" argue that capital losses from exchange-rate depreciation propagate the crises to the productive sector. To test these models, we use a firm-level dataset that allows us to measure currency mismatches around the 2002 Brazilian currency crisis. We find that, between 2001 and 2003, firms that shortly before the crisis had large currency mismatches decreased their investment rates by 8.1 percentual points, relatively to other public firms. Moreover, we show that the currency depreciation implied large competitive gains for the exporters, and yet the investment of exporters with large currency mismatches fell by 12.5 percentual points, relatively to other exporters. The estimated falls in investment are economically very relevant, thereby corroborating the relevance of third generation models negative balance sheet effects.
Ficção científica e progresso tecnológico: uma análise de distopias climáticas do século XX
No full textScience fiction has been one of the most popular genres in literature since its emergence in the
19th century. The genre sought to look at the future, imagining new technological advances,
that then seemed unlimited, which brought it closer to the literature of utopia and dystopia.
After the end of World War II and the explosion of the atomic bomb, optimism in a world
guided by science diminishes considerably and dystopias considered the very end of civilization
through the apocalyptic and post-apocalyptic subgenres. The nuclear cataclysm remained
popular in fictional works throughout the century, but in 1970s, a new threat proved to be just
as dangerous for human civilization: the environmental crises. The prognosis of a collapse
created a dystopian imagery as powerful as that of a nuclear war. It was also a threat to the
capitalist mode of production since external limits to economic growth are established. If the
atomic bomb showed the destructive potential of war technology, environmental crises call into
question the same technological artifacts that allowed the optimism in the 19th century. This
dissertation asks how works of dystopian fiction characterize environmental crises over the last
century. Therefore, climatic dystopias are the object of study, defined as: fictional works located
in the near or distant future that describe a worse society, according to the author, than that of
the moment and place in which it was written and that deal with ecological or environmental
issues such as the focus, or one of the focuses, of the dysfunctionality of their world. Its
objective is to investigate the different critical perceptions regarding technology in climatic
dystopias. To do so, it proposes to examine the history of the belief in anthropogenic climate
change, to compare the dystopian character of science fiction works throughout the 20th century
and to identify in these specific criticisms the technology, taking into account its historical and
artistic context. In the results, it is observed that: the opposition between civilization and nature
is a recurring theme in the works studied, when reflecting on alternative modes of existence
outside modern industrial society; The works proved to be useful for the study of the history of
environmental crises, by revealing characteristics of key moments of awareness regarding
these; And, finally, there is no linearity in their criticism of technological progress, but they all
manifest positions contrary to the capitalist way of life.Agência 1A ficção científica tem sido um dos gêneros mais populares da literatura desde o seu surgimento
no século XIX. O gênero busca então olhar para o futuro, imaginando novos avanços
tecnológicos que então pareciam ilimitados, o que o faz se aproximar da literatura de utopia e
distopia. Após o fim da Segunda Guerra Mundial e a explosão da bomba atômica, o otimismo
em um mundo guiado pela ciência diminui consideravelmente e as distopias consideram o
próprio fim da civilização através dos subgêneros apocalíptico e pós-apocalíptico. O cataclisma
nuclear permanece popular nas obras ficcionais ao longo de todo o século, mas a partir dos anos
70, uma nova ameaça se revela tão perigosa para a civilização humana quanto: as crises
ambientais. O prognóstico de um colapso cria um imaginário distópico tão poderoso quanto o
de uma guerra nuclear, sendo também uma ameaça ao modo de produção capitalista, uma vez
que limites externos ao crescimento econômico são estabelecidos. Se a bomba atômica
evidenciou o potencial destrutivo da tecnologia bélica, as crises ambientais colocam em questão
os mesmos artefatos tecnológicos que permitiram o otimismo do século XIX. Este trabalho se
pergunta como obras de ficção distópicas caracterizam as crises ambientais ao longo do último
século. Tem objeto de estudo, portanto, as distopias climáticas, definidas como: obras ficcionais
situadas em um futuro próximo ou distante que descrevam uma sociedade pior, de acordo com
o autor, do que a do momento e local em que foi escrita e que tratem de questões ecológicas ou
ambientais como o foco, ou um dos focos, da disfuncionalidade do seu mundo. Seu objetivo é
investigar as diferentes percepções críticas em relação a tecnologia em distopias climáticas.
Para fazê-lo, se propõe a examinar a história da difusão da crença nas mudanças climáticas
antropogênicas, comparar o caráter distópico de obras de ficção científica ao longo do século
XX e identificar nestas críticas específicas a tecnologia, levando em conta seu contexto
histórico e artístico. Em seus resultados, observa-se que: a oposição entre civilização e natureza
é um tema recorrente nas obras estudadas, ao refletir sobre modos alternativos de existência
fora da sociedade industrial moderna; As obras se mostraram úteis para o estudo da história das
crises ambientais, ao revelar características de momentos chave da conscientização quanto a
estas; E, por fim, não há uma linearidade na crítica que realizam quanto ao progresso
tecnológico, mas todas manifestam posições contrárias ao modo de vida capitalista
From Default Rates to Default Matrices: a complete measurement of Brazilian banks' consumer credit delinquency
No full textDespite the manifold utilities of monitoring credit default rates, little attention is usually devoted to the underlying default definition. This paper proposes working simultaneously with different default severities, related to several past-due ranges, by means of transition matrices (to be named default matrices). In this way, default, as well as recovery, are depicted in a multidimensional way with the purpose of avoiding missing relevant information. The challenge lies on performing comparisons between default matrices, which requires specific metrics. In this paper, the default matrices are built to measure consumer credit delinquency at four large Brazilian banks. The study is able to draw relevant information from comparisons between estimations techniques, between default criteria, between banks and over time, as well as with recent applied literature on matrices of rating agencies.
A Class of Incomplete and Ambiguity Averse Preferences
No full textThis paper characterizes ambiguity averse preferences in the absence of the completeness axiom. We axiomatize multiple selves versions of some of the most important examples of complete and ambiguity averse preferences, and characterize when those incomplete preferences are ambiguity averse.
Financial Instability and Credit Constraint: Evidence from the Cost of Bank Financing
No full textThis paper examines the relation between the degree of firms’ financial constraint and the observed rise in the cost of bank financing during the global financial crisis of 2008. It introduces a new measure of financial constraint: the lending rate paid by each firm on working capital loans. In line with previous research, the findings point to a more severe contraction in credit supply for more credit constrained firms. Additionally, the results show that the existence of collateral and a large portfolio of lenders mitigate the credit supply contraction observed in that period.
Market Forecasts in Brazil: performance and determinants
No full textThis paper assesses a wide set of aspects of market forecasts in Brazil: rationality, predictive power, joint performance, epidemiology and determinants. Using the survey conducted by the Central Bank of Brazil (CBB) among professional forecasters during the inflation targeting period, the main results are as follows: i) credibility in Brazilian monetary policy has increased over time, since inflation targets are important to explain inflation expectations, and private agents perceive the CBB as following a Taylor-type rule that is consistent with the inflation targeting framework; ii) market inflation forecasts had similar or better forecast performance than ARMA-, VAR- and BVAR-based forecasts with standard information sets; iii) the joint performance of market forecasts has improved over the past years; iv) in the decomposition of forecast errors for inflation, interest rate and exchange rate, the common forecast error component prevails over the idiosyncratic component across survey respondents; v) top-five forecasters published by the CBB are influential in other respondents’ forecasts; vi) inflation forecasts are unbiased but not fully efficient; and vii) inflation forecast uncertainty is positively related to increasing inflation and to country-risk premium.
Foreign Exchange Market Volatility Information: An Investigation of Real-Dollar Exchange Rate
No full textPrice distributions estimation has become a relevant subject for risk and pricing literature. Special concern resides on tail probabilities, which usually presents more severe observations than those predicted by Normal distributions. This work aims to verify whether the volatility implied in dollar-real options contains useful information about unexpected large-magnitude returns. Implied volatility is also checked as a predictor for realized volatility. Our results indicate that implied volatilities indeed provide useful information on unusual returns and also work as a good predictor for observed volatility. Finally, we implement an early-warning system and implied volatilities seem to signalize large-magnitude returns.
Interaction between electrons and nucleotides
No full textEstudos teóricos e experimentais acerca de danos em biomoléculas induzidos pela captura eletrônica em meio biológico têm sido largamente discutidos ao longo da última década. No presente trabalho, abordou-se o problema da captura eletrônica pelo nucleotídeo monofosfato 3\'-dGMP com técnicas de estrutura eletrônica, explorando estados ligados do ânion. Buscou-se investigar o ânion em fase gasosa e em solução aquosa, além de estimar barreiras de energia pontecial e energia livre associadas à sua dissociação (quebra da ligação ribose-fosfato). Utilizando os modelos de solvatação implícita (PCM) e explícita (simulação computacional com o método de Monte Carlo), concluiu-se que, em meio aquoso, o estado fundamental do ânion 3 -dGMP apresenta caráter de valência sobre a base nitrogenada (orbital com ocupação simples), em oposição ao resultado em fase gasosa, que prevê um estado ligado por dipolo. A barreira de dissociação, relativa ao estiramento da ligação entre os grupos ribose e fosfato, foi estimada em 16-30 kcal/mol, dependendo da técnica de solvatação utilizada.Theoretical and experimental studies on the damage to biomolecules induced by electron attachment in the biological environment have been widely discussed over the past decade. In the present work, we addressed electron capture by the monophosphate nucleotide 3 -dGMP with electronic structure techniques, exploring bound anion states. We have investigated these anion states in gas phase and in aqueous solution, and estimated the potential and free energy barriers related to the dissociation reaction (breakage of the ribose-phosphate bond). Employing implicit (PCM) and explicit (computer simulation with the Monte Carlo method) solvation models, we have concluded that, in aqueous environment, the ground state of the 3-dGMP specie has valence character with the singly occupied molecular orbital localized on the base. In contrast, the gas phase results point out a dipole-bound ground state. The free energy barrier for the dissociation mechanism, according to the present results, would be around 16-30 kcal/mol in aqueous solution, depending on the salvation model
Off-training physical behaviors, internal load, and training effects on judo athletes
No full textO judô is a dynamic and physically demanding sport. In modalities with such characteristics, it is desirable for the preparation routine to include strategies related to load control and the effects of training. However, the time allocated to training represents a small fraction of athletes' day. When added to sleep time, it can be stated that sports professionals are unaware of the physical activity behaviors adopted by athletes when they are awake. Physical activity, sedentary behavior, and sleep are integrated physical behaviors. In this sense, the aim of this study was to investigate and compare such behaviors, as well as the internal load and acute effects of judo athletes' training. Twenty professional male judo athletes (21.6 ± 3.09 years) participated in the study. Data collection took place over three weeks, with physical behaviors measured using a triaxial accelerometer, Actigraph brand, GT3X model, over 14 days. Internal load was measured using session rating of perceived exertion and training impulse methods. The scale of subjective perception of recovery, well-being questionnaire, and the countermovement jump protocol were used to assess training effects. The normality of variables was checked by the Shapiro-Wilk test, and measures of central tendency and variability were defined based on the distribution of data. Paired t-test and Wilcoxon test were used in comparisons at different times. Additionally, the magnitude of identified differences was evaluated through effect size (r). The analysis of physical behaviors was performed using ActiLife software (version 6.13.4). Rstudio® software (version 3.5.3) was used for graph creation, and IBM SPSS Statistics 23 was used for statistical analyses, with a significance level of 5% adopted. Judo athletes allocated the majority of the off-training period to behaviors that require minimal effort, with 40.8% in sleep and 33% in sedentary behavior. For the remaining time, athletes engaged in physical activities, with 21.4% at a light intensity and 4.5% at a moderate to vigorous intensity. There was a significant reduction (p = 0.034) in moderate/vigorous physical activity from the first week (4.78%) to the second week (4.20%). Similarly, moderate/vigorous physical activity was lower (p = 0.001) on Saturdays and Sundays (2.85%) compared to the other days of the week (5.62%). However, there was a significant increase (p = 0.030) in sedentary behavior on weekends (35.5%) compared to other days (32.9%). Light physical activity and sleep were similar in both observed periods. Regarding internal load, no difference was noted between the two weeks of the study, both for session perceived effort (p = 0.832) and training impulse (p = 0.636). The analysis of acute training effects indicated that, at the end of the microcycles, a reduction in subjective perception of recovery, fatigue, muscle soreness, and subjective well-being was identified. In general, it can be concluded that this study contributes to the advancement of research in the field of evaluating physical behaviors in professional athletes. Judo athletes dedicated a significant portion of their time when not training to sedentary behavior and sleep. It is worth noting that, even though rest is considered essential during the training process, it should not exceed what athletes need. Finally, information about the type of off-training behavior athletes engage in can aid professionals in identifying inappropriate behaviors and developing individualized strategies to optimize the recovery process and, consequently, enhance sports performance. However, it is essential for investigations into physical behaviors in sports to continue advancing.O judô é um esporte dinâmico e fisicamente exigente. Em modalidades com essas características é desejável que a rotina de preparação contemple estratégias relacionadas ao controle da carga e aos efeitos do treinamento. Entretanto, o tempo destinado ao treino representa uma pequena fração do dia dos atletas. Se somado ao tempo de sono, pode-se afirmar que os profissionais do esporte desconhecem os comportamentos associados à atividade física adotados por atletas quando estão acordados. A atividade física, o comportamento sedentário e o sono integram os comportamentos físicos. Nesse sentido, o objetivo deste estudo foi investigar e comparar tais comportamentos, bem como a carga interna e os efeitos agudos do treinamento de atletas de judô. Participaram do estudo 20 atletas profissionais de judô do sexo masculino (21,6 ± 3,09 anos). A coleta de dados foi realizada durante três semanas, sendo os comportamentos físicos mensurados utilizando um acelerômetro triaxial, da marca Actigraph, modelo GT3X, durante 14 dias. A carga interna foi mensurada empregando os métodos de percepção subjetiva de esforço da sessão e impulso do treinamento. A escala de percepção subjetiva de recuperação e o questionário de bem-estar, além do protocolo de salto com contramovimento, foram os parâmetros utilizados para avaliar os efeitos do treinamento. A normalidade das variáveis foi verificada pelo teste de Shapiro-Wilk, e as medidas de tendência central e de variabilidade foram definidas com base na distribuição dos dados. O teste t de Student pareado e o de Wilcoxon foram utilizados nas comparações em momentos distintos. Ainda, a magnitude das diferenças identificadas foi avaliada por meio do tamanho do efeito (r). A análise dos comportamentos físicos foi realizada pelo software ActiLife (versão 6.13.4). O software Rstudio® (versão 3.5.3), foi usado na elaboração dos gráficos, e o software IBM SPSS Statistics 23 foi utilizado nas análises estatísticas, sendo adotado um nível de significância de 5%. Os atletas de judô destinaram a maior parte do período off-training a comportamentos que demandam poucos esforços, sendo 40,8% no sono e 33% no comportamento sedentário. No restante do tempo, os atletas estiveram engajados em atividades físicas, sendo 21,4% com intensidade leve e 4,5% com intensidade moderada a vigorosa. Houve redução significativa (p = 0,034) da atividade física moderada/vigorosa da primeira (4,78%) para a segunda semana (4,20%). De maneira semelhante, a atividade física moderada/vigorosa foi menor (p = 0,001) aos sábados e domingos (2,85%) do que no decorrer dos outros dias da semana (5,62%). Entretanto, houve aumento significativo (p = 0,030) do comportamento sedentário nos finais de semana (35,5%) em comparação com os demais dias (32,9%). A atividade física leve e o sono foram semelhantes nos dois momentos observados. Com relação à carga interna, não foi notada diferença entre as duas semanas do estudo, tanto para a percepção subjetiva de esforço da sessão (p = 0,832) quanto para o impulso do treinamento (p = 0,636). A análise dos efeitos agudos do treinamento indicou que, ao final dos microciclos, foi identificada uma redução da percepção subjetiva de recuperação, fadiga, dor muscular e bem-estar subjetivo. De modo geral, pode-se concluir que este estudo contribui para o avanço de pesquisas na área de avaliação dos comportamentos físicos de desportistas profissionais, em que os atletas de judô destinaram grande parte do tempo quando não estavam treinando ao comportamento sedentário e ao sono. Cabe ressaltar que, mesmo que durante o processo de treinamento o descanso seja considerado imprescindível, ele não deve ser superior àquele que os atletas necessitam. Por fim, informações sobre o tipo de comportamento que os atletas realizam off-training podem favorecer a identificação dos comportamentos inadequados pelos profissionais, bem como a elaboração de estratégias individualizadas, com o intuito de otimizar o processo de recuperação e, consequentemente, promover o desempenho esportivo. No entanto, é necessário que as investigações sobre os comportamentos físicos no esporte continuem avançando.CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superio
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