1,720,985 research outputs found
Time Aggregation Bias in Discrete Time Models of Aggregate Duration Data
Full text linkThe paper focuses on the dynamics of unemployment in the Czech Republic over the period 1992-–2007. Unemployment dynamics are elaborated in terms of unemployment inflows and unemployment duration. The paper contributes to the literature dealing with discrete time models of aggregate unemployment duration data by accounting for time aggregation bias. Another innovation relates to the way we examine the impact of time-varying macroeconomic conditions on individual duration dependence and unemployment inflow composition. The estimation results suggest that both unobserved heterogeneity and individual duration dependence are present. The relative impact of the two factors on the aggregate duration dependence, however, changes over time. Next, seasonal effects on the individual hazard rate are detected. We do not find a significant role of macroeconomic influences. Finally, we demonstrate the profound influence of time aggregation of duration data on unemployment duration parameters for empirical data for France and the Czech Republic.Duration dependence, time aggregation bias, unemployment, unemployment duration.
Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic
Full text linkWe investigate the evolution of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the Czech Republic over the 1996-2010 period by employing a time-varying parameters Bayesian vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. We evaluate whether the response of GDP and the price level to exchange rate or interest rate shocks changes over time, with a focus on the period of the recent financial crisis. Furthermore, we augment the estimated system with a lending rate and credit growth to shed light on the relative importance of financial shocks for the macroeconomic environment. Our results suggest that output and prices have become increasingly responsive to monetary policy shocks, probably reflecting financial sector deepening, more persistent monetary policy shocks, and overall economic development associated with disinflation. On the other hand, exchange rate pass-through has weakened somewhat over time, suggesting improved credibility of inflation targeting in the Czech Republic with anchored inflation expectations. We find that credit shocks had a more sizeable impact on output and prices during the period of bank restructuring with difficult access to credit. In general, our results show that financial shocks are less important for the aggregate economy in an environment of a stable financial system.Monetary policy transmission, sign restrictions, time-varying parameters.
Inflation Persistence in New EU Member States: Is It Different Than in the Euro Area Members?
Full text linkIs inflation persistence in the new EU Member States (NMS) comparable to that in the euro area countries? We argue that persistence may not be as different between the two country groups as one might expect. We confirm that one should work carefully with the usual estimation methods when analyzing the NMS, given the scope of the convergence process they went through. We show that due to frequent breaks in inflation time series in the NMS, parametric statistical measures assuming a constant mean deliver substantially higher persistence estimates for the NMS than for the euro area countries. Employing a time-varying mean leads to the reversal of this result and suggests similar or lower inflation persistence for the NMS compared to euro area countries. Structural measures show that backward-looking behavior may be a more important component in explaining inflation dynamics in the NMS than in the euro area countries.Inflation persistence, new hybrid Phillips curve, new member states, timevarying mean.
Are Bayesian Fan Charts Useful for Central Banks? Uncertainty, Forecasting, and Financial Stability Stress Tests
Full text linkThis paper shows how fan charts generated from Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models can be useful for assessing 1) the forecasting accuracy of central banks’ prediction models and 2) the credibility of stress tests carried out to evaluate financial stability. Using unique data from the Czech National Bank (CNB), we compare our BVAR fan charts for inflation, GDP growth, interest rate and the exchange rate to those of the CNB, which are based on past forecasting errors. Our results suggest that in terms of the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, BVAR fan charts typically do not outperform those of the CNB, providing a useful cross-check of their accuracy. However, we show how BVAR fan charts can rigorously deal with the non-negativity constraint on the nominal interest rate and usefully complement the official fan charts. Finally, we put forward how BVAR fan charts can be useful for assessing financial stability and propose a simple method for evaluating whether the assumptions of banks’ stress tests about the macroeconomic outlook are sufficiently adverse.Bayesian vector autoregression, fan chart, inflation targeting, stress tests, uncertainty.
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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