1,802 research outputs found
Exchange rate uncertainty and international portfolio flows
No full textThis paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as their dynamic linkages. Specifically, a bivariate VAR GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model is estimated using bilateral monthly data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, Canada, the euro area, Japan, Sweden, and the UK over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia. The impact on net bond flows is also negative in all countries except Canada, where it is positive. Under the assumption of risk aversion, the findings suggest that exchange rate uncertainty induces a home bias and causes investors to reduce their financial activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty, this effect being stronger in the UK, the euro area and Sweden compared to Canada, Australia and Japan. Overall, the results indicate that exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used as a policy tool in countries with strong uncertainty effects to pursue economic and financial stability.
Keywords
Military spending and economic growth in China: a regime-switching analysis
No full textThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This article investigates the impact of military spending changes on economic growth in China over the period 1953 to 2010. Using two-state Markov-switching specifications, the results suggest that the relationship between military spending changes and economic growth is state dependent. Specifically, the results show that military spending changes affect the economic growth negatively during a slower growth-higher variance state, while positively within a faster growth-lower variance one. It is also demonstrated that military spending changes contain information about the growth transition probabilities. As a policy tool, the results indicate that increases in military spending can be detrimental to growth during slower growth-higher growth volatility periods. © 2014 © 2014 The Author(s). Published by Taylor & Francis
Money demand instability and real exchange rate persistence in the monetary model of USD-JPY exchange rate
No full textThis article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.This paper proposes a hybrid monetary model of the dollar-yen exchange rate that takes into account factors affecting the conventional monetary model's building blocks. In particular, the hybrid monetary model is based on the incorporation of real stock prices to enhance money demand stability and also, productivity differential, relative government spending, and real oil price to explain real exchange rate persistence. By using quarterly data over a period of high international capital mobility and volatility (1980:01-2009:04), the results show that the proposed hybrid model provides a coherent long-run relation to explain the dollar-yen exchange rate as opposed to the conventional monetary model. © 2014
Essays in exchange rates and international finance
No full textThis thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.This thesis is based on four essays in exchange rates and international finance. The first essay, examined in the second chapter, considers the long-run performance of the flexible-price monetary model as well as the real interest differential monetary model to explain the dollar–yen exchange rate during a period of high international capital mobility. We apply the Johansen methodology to quarterly data over the period 1980:01–2009:04 and show that the inadequacy of the two monetary models is due to the breakdown of their underlying building-blocks, money demand stability and purchasing power parity. In particular, modifying the monetary models by adjusting them for real stock prices to capture the stability of money demands on one hand and also for real economic variables such as productivity differential, relative government spending, and real oil price to explain the persistence in the real exchange rate on the other provide long-run relationships that appear consistent with the monetary models. Our findings of long-run weak exogeneity tests also emphasise the importance of the extended models employed here. The second essay, examined in the third chapter, is on the nature of the linkages between stock market prices and exchange rates in six advanced economies, namely the US, the UK, Canada, Japan, the euro area, and Switzerland, using data on the banking crisis between 2007 and 2010. Bivariate GARCH-BEKK models are estimated to produce evidence of unidirectional Granger causality from stock returns to exchange rate changes in the US and the UK, in the opposite direction in Canada, and of bidirectional causality in the euro area and Switzerland. Furthermore, causality-in-variance from stock returns to exchange rate changes is found in Japan and in the opposite direction in the euro area and Switzerland, whilst there is evidence of bidirectional causality-in-variance in the US and Canada. These findings imply limited opportunities for investors to diversify their assets during this period. The third essay, examined in the fourth chapter, considers the impact of net bond and net equity portfolio flows on exchange rate changes. Two-state Markov-switching models are estimated for the exchange rate of the US vis-a-vis Canada, the euro area, Japan and the UK. Our results suggest that the relationship between net portfolio flows and exchange rate changes is nonlinear for all cases considered, except that of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. The fourth essay, examined in the fifth chapter, considers the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of net portfolio flows, namely net equity and net bond flows, as well as the dynamic linkages between exchange rate volatility and the variability of these two types of flows. Specifically, a bivariate GARCH-BEKK-in mean model is estimated using bilateral data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, the UK, Japan, Canada, the euro area, and Sweden over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on net equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia, whilst two countries (Canada and Japan) showed insignificant responses. With regard to the impact of uncertainty on net bond flows, it is shown to be negative in all countries, except Canada (where it is positive). Under the assumption of risk aversion, this suggests that exchange rate uncertainty induces investors, especially those of the counterpart countries to the US, to reduce their financing activities to maximise returns and minimise exposure to uncertainty. This evidence is strong for the UK, the euro area and Sweden as opposed to Canada, Australia and Japan. Furthermore, since exchange rate volatility and the variability of flows are interlinked, exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used to pursue economic and financial stability
Ibn Jinni's Role And Contributions To Arabic Semantics [PJ6184. R165 2007 f rb].
No full textKajian ini menganalisis peranan dan sumbangan Ibn Jinni terhadap semantik Arab melalui tinjauan idea-idea dan pandangan-pandangannya yang terdapat dalam buku-bukunya seperti, “al-Muhtasab” – Perbendaharaan -, “al-Hasais” –
Yang Tertentu -, dan “al-Munsif” – Manusia yang Adil. Kajian ini juga membincangkan pandangan dan idea Ibn Jinni terhadap isu-isu tertentu tentang semantik, seperti semantik sosial, semantik morfologi, semantik fonetik, dan
semantik tatabahasa.
This study analyzes Ibn Jinni’s role and contribution to Arabic semantics by surveying his ideas and opinions presented in his books, such as “al Muhtasab”- The Treasurer-, “al-Hasa’is”-The Particularity-, and “al- Munsif”-The Just Man. It discusses Ibn Jinni’s opinions on certain issues of semantics, such as, social semantics, morphological semantics, phonetic semantics, and grammatical semantics
An analytical study of the theatre of the Syrian playwright Saadallah Wannous, with particular emphasis on the plays written after the 1967 war
No full textThis study is an examination of the life and work of
the Syrian dramatist Saadallah Wannous (1941-1997). Wannous's name is virtually unknown in the West; only two academic studies of any significance have appeared in English on this eminent and challenging writer, who was honoured by UNESCO at the end of his life. Even in the Arab world his standing rests largely upon his celebrity as a cultural icon, since professional performances of his plays are rare due to the decline of the theatre in the region, and little attention has been devoted to theatre studies by Arab academics. The two studies in English do not attempt to be comprehensive but focus on particular stages of Wannous's career. This study is, therefore, the first to encompass the full range of Wannous's work. To do so it combines an account of his life which seeks to comprehend the various forces that shaped his thinking with an analysis of his dramatic works. The study concentrates on the plays written in the years following the trauma inflicted on the Arab world by the catastrophe of their
defeat in the Arab-Israeli war of June, 1967. Wannous's career can be divided into three phases: the immature plays of his young manhood which are influenced by European models and generally focus on the social condition of the individual; his middle period - the `theatre of politicisation', when his Marxist politics were the main
factor shaping his drama; and his late works, which are characterised by an extraordinary freedom of thought and expression. The introduction places Wannous in his historical and sociocultural context and provides a brief background explaining the literary and theatrical traditions of the Arab world that influenced his activity as a dramatist. Each phase is then examined in turn and the plays are analysed in accordance with the focus of the study. This means that emphasis is given to the middle period,
but no significant work is neglected. The study aims to trace the trajectory of Wannous's development using a
variety of sources: the plays themselves, Wannous's own journalism and critical writings, interviews with his widow, his friends and colleagues, and numerous
journals, books and articles, some of which contain
important interviews with Wannous that shed light on his thought and ways of working. Use is also made of the
two studies mentioned above. The study shows that Wannous's theatre was influenced by the key political, social and cultural developments of his time, and that he
constantly sought to find forms that would express those transformations in dramatic terms
Family altruism and incentives
No full textThe author builds on the altruistic model of the family, to explore the strategic interaction between altruistic parents, and selfish children, when children's efforts are endogenous. If there is uncertainty about the amount of income the children will realize, and if parents have imperfect information, the children have an incentive to exert little effort, and to rely on their parent's altruistically motivated transfers. Because of this, parents face a tradeoff between the insurance that bequests implicitly provide their children, and the disincentive to work prompted by their altruism. The author shows that if parents can credibly commit to a pattern of transfers, they will choose not to compensate children in bad outcomes, as much as predicted by the standard (no uncertainty, no asymmetric information) dynastic model of the family. Alternatively, parents may choose to forgo any insurance, and offer a fixed level of bequest, to elicit greater effort from their children. The optimal transfers structure that the author derives, reconciles the predictions of the altruistic family model, with much of the existing evidence on inter-generational transfers, which suggests that parents compensate only partially, or not at all, for earnings differentials among their children. Moreover, the author shows that Ricardian equivalence holds in this setup, except when non-negativity constraints are binding.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Educational Sciences,Safety Nets and Transfers
Cultural aspects of multi-channel customer management: A case study in Italy
No full textChannel management is one of CRM systems component much influenced by the behaviour of customers in relation to its implementation and use. The consumers’ behaviours, preferences, perceptions and expectations are crucial for the implementation and use of channel management. Customers’ contact with the organization’s multi-channels can occur at several touch points throughout the customer lifecycle. Customers’ behaviours may be differentiated according to the individual or micro level, but it might also differ at an ecological or macro level of analysis (Ramaseshan et al., 2006). In this paper the author has conducted a case study in a multinational organization in Italy to analyze customers’ behaviours at a macro level and customers channel choices, through out the customer lifecycle. The author has used a content analysis technique to define the themes of the case study and then used the Structurational Analysis model by Ali and Brooks, (2008) to identify the cultural values dimensions (Ali, et al. 2008a) that influence multi-channel customer management in Italy. The research findings highlight the cultural dimensions, which should be considered while adopting multi-channel customer strategy. Also, the research findings encourage the articulation of situated cultural approach to study cultural impact within IS discipline as alternative approach than predefined culture archetype
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