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Multi-pathogen Infectious Disease Inference and Prediction via State-space Approaches and Filtering Methods
Dynamic systems give rise to challenges in analyzing time series data that are collected over time. State-space models are a common approach for modeling unobserved transmission processes such as infectious diseases, where often only incident cases are observed by a surveillance system. We assess the inferential ability of likelihood-based methods in a multi-serotype epidemiological model for a 4-serotype dengue system. We evaluate and compare the capacity of particle filtering and iterated filtering to draw inference for unknown parameters associated with serotype interactions in a complex dynamic disease system, based on observed data from public health surveillance systems. Likelihoods obtained from particle filtering methods are highly noisy and contain complex structured variance that can lead to bias in estimating the maximum likelihood when constructing likelihood profiles. We suggest a method that adjusts for large errors coming from likelihood-based inference methods where computational intensive Monte Carlo methods are employed. We apply the proposed estimator to simulated data that is similar to likelihoods obtained from particle filtering and show that it is able to adjust the errors coming from different components and construct likelihood profiles for noisy likelihoods. It is beneficial in inference and forecasting to incorporate immunity interactions between pathogens into models. While the inherent complexity of dynamic systems results in high dimensions and large number of mechanistic parameters, an ideal model should be complex enough to explain the key relationships between components and maintain simplicity to convey features that enable the prediction of the system dynamics. We compare models with different properties and test whether multi-pathogen models with explicit interactions could improve the predictive skill of models.Public HealthDoctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.
Fashion Illustrations Applying Wu Guanzhong's Painting Images
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Unique images and expression methods of fashion illustrations are considered as more effective way to deliver fashion messages, images and style, increasing their range of application. This study desired to analyze the conceptual meaning of painter and apply it to the fashion illustration, investigating especially the paintings of a Chinese painter, Wu Guanzhong. Artistic emotions connoted in the traditional culture have special values and meanings as valuable cultural heritages, more than just relics from the past. The purpose of this study is in suggesting various, contemporary ways of the fashion illustration, as a combination of the traditional culture and the contemporary fashion, though a research of the fashion illustration expression by investigating the images of the paintings made by Wu Guanzhong. We studied the availability of contemporary and various expression methods in the fashion illustration by trying creative way, analyzing the paintings by Wu Guanzhong. This study investigated references about Wu Guanzhong, such as preceding researches, literature studies, and Internet, and analyzed Wu Guanzhong���s oeuvre and his abstraction methods. We investigated the contemporary design cases that reflect the works of Wu Guanzhong, and analyzed the unique, abstractive, and formative characteristics, which can be seen in the dots, lines, planes and colors of the paintings worked by Wu Guanzhong after 1985. This study investigated also the fashion illustration cases Which use images in the painting works. With these theoretical considerations, we could make 8 fashion illustration works. This study remade the paintings, which is originally created by Wu Guanzhong, as a fashion illustration with contemporary sense, by reconstructing images of the unique motive and constructing simple forms of characters. Through remaking those paintings, the results are as fallow: First, We realized that the formative characteristics of the paintings drawn by Wu Guanzhong were the important motives that provide various new ideas, and they could be reinterpreted in the modern sense. Simplified faces of models and body images were able to be expressed as a fashion illustration with the application of formative characteristics of paintings by Wu Guanzhong. Second, the formative characteristics that can be found from the unique abstractive form of paintings by Wu Guanzhong were suitable for the application to the fashion illustration with his various differentiated expression methods. Third, the colors of paintings by Wu Guanzhong was suitable to be expressed as a fashion illustration, which has clear, simple images, with their contrast of high purity colors and of achromatic and primary colors. This study discovered that the various ways of attempts could be done in a fashion illustration, using images and methods which were found in the paintings made by Wu Guanzhong. Moreover, we expect that the creation of new works using expression methods of Wu Guanzhong would be continued and be used in wide field in the fashion design, through various researches.Maste
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
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