1,720,963 research outputs found
Reconstructing global overturning from meridional density gradients
No full textDespite the complexity of the global ocean system, numerous attempts have been made to scale the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), principally in the North Atlantic, with large-scale, basin-wide hydrographic properties. In particular, various approaches to scaling the MOC with meridional density gradients have been proposed, but the success of these has only been demonstrated under limited conditions. Here we present a scaling relationship linking overturning to twice vertically-integrated meridional density gradients via the hydrostatic equation and a “rotated” form of the geostrophic equation. This provides a meridional overturning streamfunction as a function of depth for each basin. Using a series of periodically forced experiments in a global, coarse resolution configuration of the general circulation model NEMO, we explore the timescales over which this scaling is temporally valid. We find that the scaling holds well in the upper Atlantic cell (at 1000 m) for multi-decadal (and longer) timescales, accurately reconstructing the relative magnitude of the response for different frequencies and explaining over 85 % of overturning variance on timescales of 64–2048 years. Despite the highly nonlinear response of the Antarctic cell in the abyssal Atlantic, between 76 and 94 % of the observed variability at 4000 m is reconstructed on timescales of 32 years (and longer). The scaling law is also applied in the Indo-Pacific. This analysis is extended to a higher resolution, stochastically forced simulation for which correlations of between 0.79 and 0.99 are obtained with upper Atlantic MOC variability on timescales >25 years. These results indicate that meridional density gradients and overturning are linked via meridional pressure gradients, and that both the strength and structure of the MOC can be reconstructed from hydrography on multi-decadal and longer timescales provided that the link is made in this way
The effect of model bias on Atlantic freshwater transport and implications for AMOC bi-stability
Full text linkEvidence from paleo-proxy records suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can be in both an AMOC on state, the AMOC as we observe it today, and an AMOC off state, where the AMOC becomes extremely weak or even collapses. The freshwater transport due to the AMOC () at 34°S in the Atlantic has often been used as an indicator for bi-stability, with a positive suggesting a monostable AMOC and a negative suggesting a bi-stable AMOC. Often studies have shown that the sign of the divergence of the might be a good indicator of AMOC bi-stability. In this study we investigate how model bias affects the sign of across all latitudes in the Atlantic basin, through a detailed analysis of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. , in the CMIP5 models is generally too positive in the southern Atlantic due to a salinity bias, while in the subtropical North Atlantic the values of are influenced by a combination of velocity and salinity biases. We compare these results to observations, reanalysis products and Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 global configuration version 2, a current generation coupled model which exhibits a stable AMOC off state, and discuss the differences that can lead to the possibility of a bi-stable AMOC as opposed to a monostable AMOC
Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a model study
No full textObservations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision
The importance of deep, basinwide measurements in optimised Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation observing arrays
No full textThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key process in the global redistribution of heat. The AMOC is defined as the maximum of the overturning stream function, which typically occurs near 30°N in the North Atlantic. The RAPID mooring array has provided full-depth, basinwide, continuous estimates of this quantity since 2004. Motivated by both the need to deliver near real-time data and optimization of the array to reduce costs, we consider alternative configurations of the mooring array. Results suggest that the variability observed since 2004 could be reproduced by a single tall mooring on the western boundary and a mooring to 1500 m on the eastern boundary. We consider the potential future evolution of the AMOC in two generations of the Hadley Centre climate models and a suite of additional CMIP5 models. The modeling studies show that deep, basinwide measurements are essential to capture correctly the future decline of the AMOC. We conclude that, while a reduced array could be useful for estimates of the AMOC on subseasonal to decadal time scales as part of a near real-time data delivery system, extreme caution must be applied to avoid the potential misinterpretation or absence of a climate time scale AMOC decline that is a key motivation for the maintenance of these observations
Using atmospheric model output to simulate the meteorological tsunami response to Tropical Storm Helene (2000)
No full textIn the fall of both 1999 and 2000, unexpected “rapid tides” occurred along the coast of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. These rapid tides have been linked to the passing of Tropical Storm Jose (1999) and Tropical Storm Helene (2000) over the Grand Banks. Here we examine the dynamic ocean response to Tropical Storm Helene (2000) using a barotropic shallow water ocean model forced by atmospheric pressure and surface winds derived from a simulation of Helene using a dynamical model of the atmosphere. The ocean model is able to capture the main features of the observed response at the coast of Newfoundland as seen in the available tide gauge data. Results show that the simulated sea level response at the coast is driven by a combination of wind stress and atmospheric pressure forcing, the former generally dominating. An exception is Conception Bay, Newfoundland, where the response is captured mainly by atmospheric pressure forcing. Offshore near the edge of the Grand Banks, atmospheric pressure and wind stress forcing are equally important. The wind‐forced response depends on the divergence of the surface wind stress and hence on the structure of the storm in the atmospheric model simulation. Sensitivity studies show the importance of having a small time interval (on the order of minutes) at which the atmospheric forcing is supplied to the ocean model and show the importance of the location of the storm track
The effect of stochastic perturbations on plankton transport by internal solitary waves
Full text linkInternal solitary and solitary-like waves are a commonly observed feature of density stratified natural waters, including lakes and the coastal ocean. Since such waves induce significant currents throughout the water column they can be responsible for significant transport of both passive and swimming biota. We consider simple models of moving zooplankton based on the Langevin equation. The small amplitude randomness significantly alters the nature of particle motion. In particular, passage through the wave leads to strongly non Gaussian particle distributions. When the plankton swims to return to its equilibrium photic level, a steady state that balances randomness, swimming and wave-induced motions is possible. We discuss possible implications of this steady state for organisms that feed on plankton
Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM
No full textThe impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe’s landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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