8,516 research outputs found
Social Exclusion: A Challenge to Macroeconomic Policy. NCRE Online Paper No. 02/01
No full text[From the Introduction]. As the conclusions from the Lisbon Council in 2000 make clear,2 the search for increased levels of employment with higher skills and increased economic growth has supplanted inflation as the key macroeconomic policy issue in the EU. This is part of a 10-year action programme to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion. Increased employment participation is central for the wider goal of improving welfare by reducing social exclusion and hence increasing social inclusion. One of three principal action areas is modernising the European social model, investing in people and combating social exclusion. In implementing this, the Council decided to apply a new open method of coordination. There is potential conflict between achievement of the wider social objective and pursuit of prudent macroeconomic policy (Gold and Mayes 1993). Trying to improve the growth rate, investment and R&D tends to increase public spending. Tackling unemployment, deprivation and other forms of exclusion involves increased transfers through the tax/benefit system. Although the consequent ‘inflation bias’ is addressed by the monetary policy framework in the Maastricht Treaty, problems remain. At some point, below current levels in the EU, such increases in the role of the public sector can be counterproductive and by reducing incentives actually diminish the overall growth in GDP and employment (Koskela and Viren 2000)
Democratic boundaries in the US and Europe: inequality, localization and voluntarism in social welfare
No full textRecent global changes have had a pronounced effect on the nature of social welfare. Ageing populations, increased immigration and mobility, changes in technology and communication, increased inequality, voluntarism and decentralization all create new conditions and new risks. Most advanced industrial countries have experienced changes in the nature of the welfare state. There has been a general shift away from the state as the sole provider of welfare and an interest in other kinds of welfare providers and forms of governance, as exemplified in the ëdisorganized welfare mixí (see Altman and Shore, chapter 6 for a discussion of this term). Civil society and private actors have become more central to welfare provision. For some, such changes constitute a radical ëcrisis of the welfare stateí (Jessop, 1999), while others claim that changes are regime-specific. Either way, such changes raise questions about how social welfare is being reformed and reshaped, and what the implications of such reforms might be for conceptions of democracy and citizenship. Our aim in this chapter is to examine three of these trends which have emerged in recent years and are contributing to important changes in the way both social welfare and democratic decision making over its form and content interact
Early intervention and prompt corrective action in Europe
No full textThe present crisis has revealed that, as expected, much of the safety net for handling failures in the banking system is deficient, particularly for cross-border banks, and the present problems had to be handled by a range of ad hoc measures. The principal new measure that needs to be undertaken in most countries is the implementation of a satisfactory special resolution regime for banks. This paper, however, deals with two further steps that could assist the operation of the safety net. The first is to ensure earlier intervention so there is more time to put a satisfactory rescue or resolution in place. The second is to implement a regime of prompt corrective action (structured early intervention and resolution, SEIR) so that both supervisors and banks know that a regime of increasing intensity will take place according to a strict timetable that will end in the authorities stepping into the bank while it still has positive capital, if the earlier stages are not effective. The paper evaluates the means of doing this in a European environment making use of the experience in the United States. It concludes that, while a lot can be done even within the current framework of national supervision, particularly through pre-positioning, cross-border banks can be better treated either by revising the home-host responsibilities or by moving to a supranational level of responsibility for SEIR for those banks whose continued operation is considered necessary for financial stability in any member state.early intervention; prompt corrective action; cross-border banks; pre-positioning; bank resolution
Globalisation, the crisis and the state: Introduction
No full textThe global financial crisis (GFC) has challenged much of conventionalwisdom. Our conception of globalisation has been called into question. Inparticular, the Washington Consensus with its emphasis on deregulationand the shrinking of the state has been undermined. Instead, the importanceof the state as regulator, investor and indeed economic saviour hasbeen emphasised. We need then to readdress the relationship betweenglobalisation, the crisis and the state, and this is the main objective of thisbook.The purpose of this chapter is firstly to give an overview of the mainissues arising from the relationship between globalisation, the GFC andthe modern state, and secondly to outline the contents of the otherchapters.<br/
Financial conditions indexes
No full textThis paper provides an exposition of the nature, means of estimation and uses of Financial Conditions Indexes (FCIs) and their relationship to the more common Monetary Conditions Indexes (MCIs) that are used by market analysts, international organisations and central banks. Using panel datasets for Western Europe we explore how asset prices, particularly house and stock prices, can provide useful additional indicators of future changes in output and inflation. We find a clear role for house prices but a poorly determined relationship for stock prices. Unfortunately the most useful role for FCIs comes from their incorporation of high frequency data and the opportunity this gives for extracting information about changes in market expectations for inflation and output. This helps market participants make judgements about likely central bank reactions and helps central banks assess the stance of policy between forecasts. While stock prices are high frequency, house prices are not. At quarterly frequency central banks in particular will want to use traditional economic forecasting methods and summary indicators like FCIs will have only a limited role. We illustrate how such an FCI can be used, drawing on monthly data for Finland.UnpublishedNon Peer ReviewedBaxter, M (1994) `Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Differentials : Have we Missed the Business
Cycle Relationship?', Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.33, pp.5-37.
Bernrnanke, B and Gertler, M (1995) `Inside the Black Box : the Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission',
Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.9 (4), pp.27-48.
Bernrnanke, B and Gertler, M (1999) `Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility', in New Challenges
for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp .77-128.
Black, R Cassino, V, Drew, A, Hansen, E, Hunt, B, Rose D and Scott, A (1997) `The Forecasting
and Policy System : the Core Model', Reserve Bank of New Zealand Research Paper
43 .
Bryan, M F, Cechetti, S G and O'Sullivan, R (2001) `Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation',
De Nederlandsche Bank Staff Report no .62.
Byangos, V. (2000) `A Real Monetary Conditions Index for the Philippines : Is It Useful?', Institute
of Social Studies, The Hague Working Paper no.309.
Case, K E, Quigley, J M and Shiller, R J (2001) `Comparing Wealth Effects : The Stock Market ver
sus the Housing Market' Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper no 1335 .
Cechetti, S G, Genburg, H, Lipsky, J and Wadhwani, S (2000) Asset Prices and Central Bank Policy,
Geneva Report on the World Economy no .2, International Center for Monetary
and Banking Studies and CEPR .
Chiuri, M C and Jappellili, T (2000) `Financial Market Imperfections and Home Ownership : a Comparative
Study', Working Paper 44, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance,
University of Salernrno .
Eika, K H, Ericsson, N R and Nymoen, R (1997) `Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions
Index', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 58 (4), pp. 765-90.
Genburg, H (2001) `Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability', De Nederlandsche
Bank Staff Report no 64 .
Gerlach, S and Smets, F (1996) 'MCIs and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies under
Floating Rates', BIS, mimeo .
Goldman Sachs (2001) `South Africa : Easier Monetary Conditions Limit Room for Rate Cuts in
2001', EMEA Economics Analyst, issue 01/05, pp .6-8.
Goodhart, C A E (2001) `What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?',
Economic Journal, vol . I l l (June), pp.F336-57 .
Goodhart, C A E and Hofmann, B (2000) `Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy',
Sveriges Riksbank and Stockholm School of Economics conference on Asset Markets
and Monetary Policy, Stockholm, June .
Grande, G (1997) `Properties of the Monetary Conditions Index', Banca d'Italia Temi di Discussionn
no 324 .
lacoviello, M (2000) `House Prices and the Macroeconomy in Europe : Results from a Structural
VAR Analysis', European Central Bank Working Paper no . 18, April .
Jacobsen, T, Jansson, P, Vredin, A and Warne, A (1998) `A VAR Model for Monetary Policy
Analysis in a Small Open Economy', Sveriges Riksbank .
King, M (1994) `Debt Deflation : Theory and Evidence', European Economic Review, vol.38,
pp.419-35 .
Mayes, D G (1979) The Property Boom, Oxford: Martin Robertson .
Mayes,D G (1999) `The Evolution of Voluntary Rules for the European Central Bank', Contemporary
Politics and Economics of Europe, vol.8 (4), pp.357-86.
Mayes, D G and Viren, M (1998) `The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area',
Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 27/98
Mayes, D G and Viren, M (2000a) `Asymmetry and the Problem of Integration in the Euro Area',
Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 11/2000
Mayes, D G and Viren, M (2000b) `The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro
Area', Weltwirtschafftliches Archiv, vol . 136 (2), pp.199-231 .
Meltzer, A H (1995) `Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes : a Monetarist Perspective',
Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.9 (4), pp.49-72 .
Muellbauer, J (1992) `Anglo-German Differences in Housing Market Dynamics : The Role of Institutions
and Macroeconomic Policy', European Economic Review, vol.36, pp.539-
48.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (1997) `Recommendation to the 1997 CPI Revision Advisory Committee'
(May) http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/cpi.htm .
Roger, S (1993) `Asset Prices and Monetary Policy', mimeo, Reserve Bank of New Zealand .
Rudebusch, G and Svensson, L E 0 (1998) `Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting' NBER Working
Paper 6512 .
Stock, J and Watson, M (2000) `Forecasting Output and Inflation : the role of asset prices', Sveriges
Riksbank and Stockholm School of Economics conference on Asset Markets and
Monetary Policy, Stockholm, June.
Soderlind, P and Svensson, L E 0 (1997) `New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from
Financial Instruments' Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.40 (2), pp.373-429.
Svensson, L E 0 (2001) `What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgement in Monetary Policy
through Targeting Rules', mimeo July
Valckx, N (2001) `Factors Affecting Asset Price Expectations : Fundamentals and Policy Variables',
Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 13/2001 .
Winkler, B (2000) `Which Kind of Transparency? On the Need for Clarity in Monetary Policy
Making', European Central Bank Working Paper no.26
Financial conditions indexes
No full textThis paper provides an exposition of the nature, means of estimation and uses of Financial Conditions Indexes (FCIs) and their relationship to the more common Monetary Conditions Indexes (MCIs) that are used by market analysts, international organisations and central banks. Using panel datasets for Western Europe we explore how asset prices, particularly house and stock prices, can provide useful additional indicators of future changes in output and inflation. We find a clear role for house prices but a poorly determined relationship for stock prices. Unfortunately the most useful role for FCIs comes from their incorporation of high frequency data and the opportunity this gives for extracting information about changes in market expectations for inflation and output. This helps market participants make judgements about likely central bank reactions and helps central banks assess the stance of policy between forecasts. While stock prices are high frequency, house prices are not. At quarterly frequency central banks in particular will want to use traditional economic forecasting methods and summary indicators like FCIs will have only a limited role. We illustrate how such an FCI can be used, drawing on monthly data for Finland.UnpublishedNon Peer ReviewedBaxter, M (1994) `Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Differentials : Have we Missed the Business
Cycle Relationship?', Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.33, pp.5-37.
Bernrnanke, B and Gertler, M (1995) `Inside the Black Box : the Credit Channel of Monetary Transmission',
Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.9 (4), pp.27-48.
Bernrnanke, B and Gertler, M (1999) `Monetary Policy and Asset Price Volatility', in New Challenges
for Monetary Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pp .77-128.
Black, R Cassino, V, Drew, A, Hansen, E, Hunt, B, Rose D and Scott, A (1997) `The Forecasting
and Policy System : the Core Model', Reserve Bank of New Zealand Research Paper
43 .
Bryan, M F, Cechetti, S G and O'Sullivan, R (2001) `Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation',
De Nederlandsche Bank Staff Report no .62.
Byangos, V. (2000) `A Real Monetary Conditions Index for the Philippines : Is It Useful?', Institute
of Social Studies, The Hague Working Paper no.309.
Case, K E, Quigley, J M and Shiller, R J (2001) `Comparing Wealth Effects : The Stock Market ver
sus the Housing Market' Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper no 1335 .
Cechetti, S G, Genburg, H, Lipsky, J and Wadhwani, S (2000) Asset Prices and Central Bank Policy,
Geneva Report on the World Economy no .2, International Center for Monetary
and Banking Studies and CEPR .
Chiuri, M C and Jappellili, T (2000) `Financial Market Imperfections and Home Ownership : a Comparative
Study', Working Paper 44, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance,
University of Salernrno .
Eika, K H, Ericsson, N R and Nymoen, R (1997) `Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions
Index', Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol 58 (4), pp. 765-90.
Genburg, H (2001) `Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability', De Nederlandsche
Bank Staff Report no 64 .
Gerlach, S and Smets, F (1996) 'MCIs and Monetary Policy in Small Open Economies under
Floating Rates', BIS, mimeo .
Goldman Sachs (2001) `South Africa : Easier Monetary Conditions Limit Room for Rate Cuts in
2001', EMEA Economics Analyst, issue 01/05, pp .6-8.
Goodhart, C A E (2001) `What Weight Should Be Given to Asset Prices in the Measurement of Inflation?',
Economic Journal, vol . I l l (June), pp.F336-57 .
Goodhart, C A E and Hofmann, B (2000) `Asset Prices and the Conduct of Monetary Policy',
Sveriges Riksbank and Stockholm School of Economics conference on Asset Markets
and Monetary Policy, Stockholm, June .
Grande, G (1997) `Properties of the Monetary Conditions Index', Banca d'Italia Temi di Discussionn
no 324 .
lacoviello, M (2000) `House Prices and the Macroeconomy in Europe : Results from a Structural
VAR Analysis', European Central Bank Working Paper no . 18, April .
Jacobsen, T, Jansson, P, Vredin, A and Warne, A (1998) `A VAR Model for Monetary Policy
Analysis in a Small Open Economy', Sveriges Riksbank .
King, M (1994) `Debt Deflation : Theory and Evidence', European Economic Review, vol.38,
pp.419-35 .
Mayes, D G (1979) The Property Boom, Oxford: Martin Robertson .
Mayes,D G (1999) `The Evolution of Voluntary Rules for the European Central Bank', Contemporary
Politics and Economics of Europe, vol.8 (4), pp.357-86.
Mayes, D G and Viren, M (1998) `The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro Area',
Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 27/98
Mayes, D G and Viren, M (2000a) `Asymmetry and the Problem of Integration in the Euro Area',
Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 11/2000
Mayes, D G and Viren, M (2000b) `The Exchange Rate and Monetary Conditions in the Euro
Area', Weltwirtschafftliches Archiv, vol . 136 (2), pp.199-231 .
Meltzer, A H (1995) `Monetary, Credit and (Other) Transmission Processes : a Monetarist Perspective',
Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol.9 (4), pp.49-72 .
Muellbauer, J (1992) `Anglo-German Differences in Housing Market Dynamics : The Role of Institutions
and Macroeconomic Policy', European Economic Review, vol.36, pp.539-
48.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (1997) `Recommendation to the 1997 CPI Revision Advisory Committee'
(May) http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/cpi.htm .
Roger, S (1993) `Asset Prices and Monetary Policy', mimeo, Reserve Bank of New Zealand .
Rudebusch, G and Svensson, L E 0 (1998) `Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting' NBER Working
Paper 6512 .
Stock, J and Watson, M (2000) `Forecasting Output and Inflation : the role of asset prices', Sveriges
Riksbank and Stockholm School of Economics conference on Asset Markets and
Monetary Policy, Stockholm, June.
Soderlind, P and Svensson, L E 0 (1997) `New Techniques to Extract Market Expectations from
Financial Instruments' Journal of Monetary Economics, vol.40 (2), pp.373-429.
Svensson, L E 0 (2001) `What is Wrong with Taylor Rules? Using Judgement in Monetary Policy
through Targeting Rules', mimeo July
Valckx, N (2001) `Factors Affecting Asset Price Expectations : Fundamentals and Policy Variables',
Bank of Finland Discussion Paper 13/2001 .
Winkler, B (2000) `Which Kind of Transparency? On the Need for Clarity in Monetary Policy
Making', European Central Bank Working Paper no.26
Peaks and troughs: economics and political economy of central bank independence cycles
No full textDavid Ricardo’s ideas represent, nowadays, a closer representation of the functioning of monetary policy institutions than ever before in history. Central bankers can implement their policies with a degree of autonomy that their predecessors would have only dreamed of. Yet, the history of central banks is rich in modifications to their role and functions (Goodhart, 1988; Lastra, 1996; Goodhart, 2011). In particular, over the past four decades, central banks around the world have seen their mandates progressively narrowed and zoomed on the goal of price stability
Banking Crisis Resolution Policy - Lessons from Recent Experience - which elements are needed for robust and efficient crisis resolution?
No full textThe current financial crisis has sparked intense debate about how weak banks should be resolved. Despite international efforts to coordinate and converge on such policies, national policy advice and resolution practices differ. The resolution methods adopted in the Nordic banking crises in the 1990s are generally acknowledged to include important elements of “best practice”. But some of these lessons have proved hard to implement during the current crisis, and new policies have been developed as a response, particularly in the UK. Still, unresolved issues remain. These are discussed in a review of the resolution methods in the US, UK and NZ.crisis resolution, banks, special resolution regime
Creating stable hydrophilic surfaces with blends of branched and linear polymers
No full textThesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Science and Engineering, 1997.Includes bibliographical references (p. 137-145).by David G. Walton.Ph.D
Asymmetries in the Euro area economy
No full textUsing quarterly data for the period since 1987 this paper explores, in the context of a small model of the EU economy, the degree to which monetary policy has been asymmetric. It shows in particular that monetary policy has been much more responsive to threats that inflation would lie outside the price stability target than to equal sized shocks within the target zone. Similarly monetary policy has responded to threats of large positive and negative output gaps but has remained largely unresponsive to smaller divergences. It thus appears that the ECB and its predecessors have been avoiding 'fine-tuning' but have been aggressive in responding to substantial threats to macroeconomic stability. The action seems to have been stronger with respect to inflationary pressure than to deflation but this may offset any bias in fiscal policy. The asymmetric response of policy in part reflects considerable non-linearities and asymmetries in the behaviour of the euro area economies. High unemployment has relatively limited effect in pulling inflation down while low unemployment can be much more effective in driving it up. Economic downturns are both more rapid and sustained in driving unemployment up than recoveries are in bringing it down. There is considerable variety in these relationships and IS curves across countries, sectors and regions. Monetary policy reacts in the light of this.monetary policy; asymmetry
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