1,720,988 research outputs found
The COVID-19 black swan crisis: Reaction and recovery of various financial markets
No full textThis paper examines and compares financial market reaction and recovery of four broad classes of financial assets – equity indexes, precious metals, 10-year benchmark bonds and cryptocurrencies, to the COVID-19 pandemic. The data set comprises daily observations of close prices in the selected markets from 17-04-2018 to 20-06-2021. Using the Yang and Zhao (2020) and Koenker and Xiao (2004) quantile unit-root tests for return persistence, we find heterogeneity in reactions and recovery patterns not only across asset classes, but also within them. Specifically, we find strong potential for mean reversion in equity markets even at high levels of shocks. While gold offers limited mean reversion, platinum shows very strong resistance to the COVID. Government bonds show small declines in value to the COVID in addition to high persistence. Cryptocurrencies, as a group, turn out to be the riskiest in the long-term, with more than a 50% decline in value coupled with high degrees of persistence. Our results raise questions as to the safe haven characteristics of the newly-popular Bitcoin. Our findings are useful for policy makers and investors through a better understanding of differences in the potential for mean reversion provided by different asset classes
The effects of a “black swan” event (COVID-19) on herding behavior in cryptocurrency markets
No full textThis paper analyses herding in cryptocurrency markets in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We employ a combination of quantitative methods to hourly prices of the four most traded cryptocurrency markets - USD, EUR, JPY and KRW - for the period from 1st January 2019 to 13th March 2020. While there are several strong theoretical reasons to observe the “black swan” effect on cryptocurrency herding, our results suggest that COVID-19 does not amplify herding in cryptocurrency markets. In all markets studied, herding remains contingent on up or down markets days, but does not get stronger during the COVID-19. These results are important for cryptocurrency investors and regulators to enhance their understanding of cryptocurrency markets and the financial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic
“Shiny” crypto assets: A systemic look at gold-backed cryptocurrencies during the COVID-19 pandemic
No full textIn this paper, we empirically analyse the performance of five gold-backed stablecoins during the COVID-19 pandemic and compare them to gold, Bitcoin and Tether. In the digital assets' ecosystem, gold-backed cryptocurrencies have the potential to address regulatory and policy concerns by decreasing volatility of cryptocurrency prices and facilitating broader cryptocurrency adoption. We find that during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold-backed cryptocurrencies were susceptible to volatility transmitted from gold markets. Our results indicate that for the selected gold-backed cryptocurrencies, their volatility, and as a consequence, risks associated with volatility, remained comparable to the Bitcoin. In addition, gold-backed cryptocurrencies did not show safe-haven potential comparable to their underlying precious metal, gold.</p
Shall the winning last? A study of recent bubbles and persistence
No full textIn this study, we analyze stock market performance of 43 firms that show very large price rises in COVID-19 times for the period 21/11/2019 – 20/1/2021. These cover 6 industries - work-from-home companies, stay-at-home companies, Cryptocurrency companies, Bitcoin companies, Coronavirus Vaccine companies and Coronavirus therapeutics companies. Our results demonstrate the presence of bubbles and persistence patterns
To the Problem of Financial Safety Estimation: the Index of Financial Safety of Turkey
Full text linkThis paper proposes an approach to explore the strength of the financial system of Turkey against the possibility of financial disturbances appearing based on the construction of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of a country. For this purpose the macro-prudential approach, system analyses, the basic principles of the theory of logical inference, principal of parsimony, principal component analysis are used. The results showed that the IFS applied to Turkey is able to capture the main perturbations in its financial system
Теоретичні засади розвитку мезоекономічних систем
Full text linkThe main theoretical problems of meso-economic system development have been analyzed in this article. For this purpose the system theory, synergetic and gomeostatic approaches, the main principles of dialectics (especially principle contradiction) have been used. Meso-systems (including economic ones) were analysed as ways (methods) to reach the macro-goal (in the selected scale). The structure of meso-economic systems, processes, goals, functions, typology of meso-systems were discovered
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The role of interpersonal trust in cryptocurrency adoption
Full text linkDespite the impressive adoption of cryptocurrencies since Bitcoin was introduced in 2008, little academic attention has been paid to the role of interpersonal trust in fostering this adoption. In this paper, we quantify the effect of interpersonal trust on the interest in and adoption of the three largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization – Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin using data from the 7th wave of the World Values Survey, Twitter, and Google Trends. Our results indicate a positive and statistically significant effect of trust on interest in and adoption of cryptocurrencies, confirming the importance of trust in the growth of financial markets
Theoretical principles of messo-economic systems development
Full text linkThe main theoretical problems of meso-economic system development have been analyzed in this article. For this purpose the system theory, synergetic and gomeostatic approaches, the main principles of dialectics (especially principle contradiction) have been used. Meso-systems (including economic ones) were analysed as ways (methods) to reach the macro-goal (in the selected scale). The structure of meso-economic systems, processes, goals, functions, typology of meso-systems were discovered.meso-economic systems, complex systems, development, мезо-економічні системи, складні системи, розвиток
Forecasting the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa using neural networks
Full text linkThis paper investigates neural network tools, especially the nonlinear autoregressive model with exogenous input (NARX), to forecast the future conditions of the Index of Financial Safety (IFS) of South Africa. Based on the time series that was used to construct the IFS for South Africa (Matkovskyy, 2012), the NARX model was built to forecast the future values of this index and the results are benchmarked against that of Bayesian Vector-Autoregressive Models. The results show that the NARX model applied to IFS of South Africa and trained by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm may ensure a forecast of adequate quality with less computation expanses, compared to BVAR models with different priors
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