101,620 research outputs found
AIM/CGE V2.0: Basic Feature of the Model
No full textThis chapter documents a main model structure and how to implement scenario assumptions for the analysis of long-term climate mitigation taken by AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium). There are six aspects which are going to be discussed. First, macroeconomy, labor, and population treatment are explained. Second, energy supply sector representation is described. Energy supply sectors are one of the key elements for decarbonizing economic systems. Third, energy demand sectors are discussed. Fourth, agriculture and land use are critically important for stringent climate mitigation policy since large bioenergy implementation combined with carbon capture and storage and afforestation would be thought as measures which enables so-called negative emissions. Fifth, nonenergy-related GHG reduction measures follow. They are mostly related to agricultural sectors. Sixth, we discuss how to add new sectors into the CGE system
Temporal and spatial distribution of global mitigation cost: INDCs and equity
No full textEach country's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) pledges an emission target for 2025 or 2030. Here, we evaluated the INDC inter-generational and inter-regional equity by comparing scenarios with INDC emissions target in 2030 and with an immediate emission reduction associated with a global uniform carbon price using Asian-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium. Both scenarios eventually achieve 2 °C target. The results showed that, as compared with an immediate emission reduction scenario, the inter-generational equity status is not favorable for INDC scenario and the future generation suffers more from delayed mitigation. Moreover, this conclusion was robust to the wide range of inequality aversion parameter that determines discount rate. On the other hand, the INDC scenario has better inter-regional equity in the early part of the century than does the immediate emission reduction scenario in which we assume a global carbon price during the period up to 2030. However, inter-regional equity worsens later in the century. The additional emissions reduction to the INDC in 2030 would improve both inter- and inter-regional equity as compared to the current INDC. We also suggest that countries should commit to more emissions reductions in the follow-up INDC communications and that continuous consideration for low-income countries is needed for global climate change cooperation after 2030
AIM/CGE V2.0 Model Formula
No full textThis chapter describes the (1) model structure of AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium), (2) data structure (social accounting matrix (SAM)), and (3) formula and list of sets, parameters, equations, and variables. The aim of this chapter is to present all equations written in the model which is used in the other chapter’s analysis and make the analysis made in this book transparent
Introduction: Overview and Key Messages
No full textThis book analyzes the roles of technologies and their prevalence in implementing intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), estimates the economic impacts and co-benefits of INDCs, clarifies the gaps between the current INDCs and the long-term target of the Paris Agreement to stay well below 2 °C, and investigates measures to narrow these gaps. Analyses of the INDCs of six Asian countries with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Modeling/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model are introduced. The book is also intended to support climate policy analyses by introducing methodologies to analyze the economic impacts of climate policies using AIM/CGE. These analyses show the feasibility of INDCs, their implications for the long-term climate goal, and the challenges to increase the levels of ambition of INDCs
Asian INDC Assessments: The Case of Thailand
No full textOn 1st October 2015, Thailand had submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and stated that by 2030 GHG emissions will be reduced by 20–25% when compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. The Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in Paris. In addition, Thailand provided signature at the United Nations in New York on 22 April 2016 and ratified the Paris Agreement on 21 September 2016. This paper assesses the impacts of GHG emission reduction targets in Thailand’s INDC by using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE). Four scenarios are established by the given GHG emission constraints and the renewable power generation target. Results show that, under the Power Development Plan in 2015, the INDC target is achievable. As a result, macroeconomic loss is low in low reduction target, but it will be high in the high reduction target. In addition, it needs more renewable energy push to realize stringent climate policy. Thus, the availability of land for deploying the renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, and biomass needs to be evaluated to meet higher GHG emission levels. Furthermore, the stringent GHG emission levels also induce the reduction of other air pollutants. Finally, the result of this study has been used in the design of roadmap for GHG reduction targets in 2030, and Thailand has more confidence on the achievement of the Paris Agreement
Risks from Global Climate Change and the Paris Agreement
No full textThe objectives of the Paris Agreement (PA) include limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C (“the 2 °C goal”) and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (“the 1.5 °C goal”). The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of the relevant scientific knowledge on the risks from climate change corresponding to different levels of mitigation efforts, including the two long-term goals in the PA, as well as the expected consequences of extending the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) without strengthening them.
According to figures summarizing risks from climate change in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR5), if the global temperature increase could be limited to below 1.5 °C above the preindustrial level, this would reduce the risks from climate change as evaluated from several perspectives. However, some of the risks (such as the effects on unique and threatened systems and the risks from extreme events) would still be considerable even at 1–2 °C above the preindustrial level.
Even with a similar degree of climate change, the levels of risk could differ under different degrees of exposure and/or vulnerability. To increase the accuracy of assessments of global climate risks for different temperature increases, explicit consideration of future changes in exposure and vulnerability will be necessary. Internationally coordinated development of new socioeconomic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) is expected to promote such studies for the next round of the IPCC report
Introduction: Overview and Key Messages
No full textThis chapter provides an overview of Indonesia's current economy, energy sector, land use, and climate policies. We assessed Indonesia's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) using an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium model coupled with an agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) model. The model shows that the emission reduction target of INDC can be achieved at low economic cost (less than 1% of GDP) and that the mitigation actions required would not harm economic development. While emissions from land use and land use change are high nowadays, the energy sector is expected to grow rapidly and become more important in the future. Therefore, climate-related policymakers should focus equally on land use and the energy sector in the future
Model of superconducting vortices in layered materials for the interpretation of transmission electron microscopy images
No full textMore realistic simulations of the magnetic field and electron optical phase shift associated to pancake vortices in layered high-T-c superconducting specimen require a number of layers larger than 7, the practical upper limit set by the discrete algebraic approach followed so far. This goal can be achieved by resorting to a continuum approximation of the screening layers above and below the one containing the pancake vortex. It is thus possible to increase the number of layers and to investigate more exotic vortex core structures than those represented by the pancakes pinned at tilted columnar defects. In particular it will be shown how recently observed dumbbell-like contrast features in the out-of-focus images of superconducting vortices forming a large angle with the specimen surfaces can be interpreted as due to a kinked structure of the pancakes
Letter, [Author unclear] to Paulina T. Merritt
No full textHandwritten letter to Paulina Merritt from an unknown author, October 1, 1876.
Implication of Paris Agreement in the context of long-term climate mitigation goals
No full textThe Paris Agreement confirmed the global aim to achieve a long-term climate goal, in which the global increase in mean temperature is kept below 2 °C compared to the preindustrial level. We investigated the implications of the near-term emissions targets (for around the year 2030) in the context of the long-term climate mitigation goal using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model framework. To achieve the 2 °C goal, a large greenhouse gas emissions reduction is required, either in the early or latter half of this century. In the mid-term (from 2030 to 2050), it may be necessary to consider rapid changes to the existing energy or socioeconomic systems, while long-term measures (after 2050) will rely on the substantial use of biomass combined with carbon capture and storage technology or afforestation, which will eventually realize so-called negative CO2 emissions. With respect to the policy context, two suggestions are provided here. The first is the review and revision of the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in 2020, with an additional reduction target to the current NDCs being one workable alternative. The second suggestion is a concrete and numerical mid-term emissions reduction target, for example to be met by 2040 or 2050, which could also help to achieve the long-term climate goal
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