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Forecasting of GDP Growth in the South Caucasian Countries Using Hybrid Ensemble Models
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Forecasting of GDP Growth in the South Caucasian Countries Using Hybrid Ensemble Models
by Gaetano Perone 1,2,*ORCID andManuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate 3ORCID
1
Department of Economics and Management, University of Pisa, Via Cosimo Ridolfi 10, 56124 Pisa, Italy
2
Kutaisi International University, Akhalgazrdoba Ave. Lane 5/7, 4600 Kutaisi, Georgia
3
Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 0901952, Ecuador
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Econometrics 2025, 13(3), 35; https://doi.org/10.3390/econometrics13030035
Submission received: 29 June 2025 / Revised: 1 September 2025 / Accepted: 2 September 2025 / Published: 10 September 2025
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Abstract
This study aimed to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) of the South Caucasian nations (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) by scrutinizing the accuracy of various econometric methodologies. This topic is noteworthy considering the significant economic development exhibited by these countries in the context of recovery post COVID-19. The seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), exponential smoothing state space (ETS) model, neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model, and trigonometric exponential smoothing state space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, and trend and seasonal components (TBATS), together with their feasible hybrid combinations, were employed. The empirical investigation utilized quarterly GDP data at market prices from Q1-2010 to Q2-2024. According to the results, the hybrid models significantly outperformed the corresponding single models, handling the linear and nonlinear components of the GDP time series more effectively. Rolling-window cross-validation showed that hybrid ETS-NNAR-TBATS for Armenia, hybrid ETS-NNAR-SARIMA for Azerbaijan, and hybrid ETS-SARIMA for Georgia were the best-performing models. The forecasts also suggest that Georgia is likely to record the strongest GDP growth over the projection horizon, followed by Armenia and Azerbaijan. These findings confirm that hybrid models constitute a reliable technique for forecasting GDP in the South Caucasian countries. This region is not only economically dynamic but also strategically important, with direct implications for policy and regional planning
Conferimenti in società
No full textLa voce si propone di offrire una ricostruzione uniforme della fattispecie e della disciplina dei conferimenti in società, la quale, pur non ignorando le differenze esistenti nella regolamentazione dei singoli tipi societari, individui in termini generali i requisiti caratterizzanti dell'istituto e i tratti costanti dello stesso
Knowledge-driven fuzzy consensus model for team formation
Get PDFThe correct allocation of human resources is of utmost importance for any kind of enterprise and organization. Many approaches have been defined so far to support team formation leveraging on different techniques, from knowledge engineering to operational research and computational intelligence. Unfortunately, these approaches are often specifically thought for large organizations owning the right set of technological assets and human resources able to manage and use these approaches. In this work, we propose an original approach to team formation, namely the KnowMIS-Team approach, specifically designed for knowledge-intensive small and medium enterprises. This is a lightweight hybrid approach that combines three different techniques: a knowledge-driven technique for finding the most competent team for a given project based on a lightweight semantic model of knowledge, skills and attitudes; a top-down, leader-selected approach wherein the competent members selected in the previous phase can propose their candidate teams; a bottom-up fuzzy consensus-based mechanism in which the employees of the organization can express their preferences on the candidate teams. A conceptual architecture of an intelligent system implementing the approach is also presented. The KnowMIS-Team approach is the overall result of many years of experience in team formation and management for a research center and embeds all the best practices therein adopted, and it has been experimented in the same center and in other university spin-offs for many years, contributing to the realization of successful projects
Peroperative control of surgical infections.
No full textThe overall incidence of post-surgical infection actually amount to 3-10%, in different multicentric trial, although the data may underrepresent the true incidence of such infections owing to increase of day-surgery. Antibiotic prophylaxis rapresents the first choice in the management of surgical patients, which standardization and selection can determine a real protection for all the operating time. Standardization of intraoperative procedure, considering utility of a multistep precautionary measure and the weight of these measures on post-operative stay of patients, may be an arm for control really post-operative infectious complications, according with control of sterilization's procedures and diffusion of dedicated device
Role of bariatric surgery in early detection of renal cell carcinoma: report of two cases and review of the literature.
No full textObesity is considered a strong risk factor for renal cell carcinoma, the most common primary renal malignant neoplasm. An association between renal cell carcinoma and obesity has been reported in numerous trials. Several potential mechanisms may be responsible for the risk of renal cell carcinoma in obese subjects. We report the cases of two patients, submitted to bariatric malabsorbtive surgery, who presented a renal clear cell carcinoma several months after the operation. The diagnosis was made by routine postoperative ultrasound examination and confirmed by computed tomography in both cases. Both were treated surgically. Our approach after diagnosis of cancer consisted in evaluation of the patient's immunological, metabolic and nutritional status to establish whether it was a case of real malnutrition or an oncological risk condition. We judged that restoration of original gastrointestinal continuity was not necessary. In the literature, we found no evidence of an association between a cancer histotype and bariatric surgery. Confirming the association between renal cell carcinoma and morbid obesity, these case reports indicate the importance of imaging control, especially with non-invasive diagnostic studies, in high-risk cancer patients, such as obese patients, to detect lesions incidentally at an early stage. After a thorough review of the literature data, we consider bariatric patients a suitable group to be assessed for an early diagnosis of various types of cancer, detectable at preoperative or postoperative screening. Weight loss and continuous instrumental exams are conditions favourable to an early diagnosis. Guidelines regarding the management of oncological patients with a history of bariatric surgery are indispensable
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