1,721,024 research outputs found
A Bayesian vector error corrections model of the U.S. economy
Get PDFThis paper presents a small-scale macroeconometric time-series model that can be used to generate short-term forecasts for U.S. output, inflation, and the rate of unemployment. Drawing on both the Bayesian VAR and vector error corrections (VEC) literature, the author specifies the baseline model as a Bayesian VEC. The author documents the model's forecasting ability over various periods, examines its impulse responses, and considers several reasonable alternative specifications. Based on a root-mean-square-error criterion, the baseline model works best, and the author concludes that this model holds promise as a workhorse forecasting tool.Forecasting ; Time-series analysis
Regional Currency Arrangements in North America
Get PDFRegional and International Currency Arrangements
Market reform and state paternalism in Hungary: a path-dependent approach
Get PDFHungary is one of the worst-hit countries of the current financial crisis in Central and Eastern Europe. The deteriorating economic performance of the country is, however, not a recent phenomenon. A relatively high ratio of redistribution, a high and persistent public deficit and accelerated indebtedness characterised the country not just in the last couple of years but also well before the transformation, which also continued in the postsocialist years. The gradualist success of the country – which dates back to at least 1968 – in the field of liberalisation, marketisation and privatisation was accompanied by a constant overspending in the general government. The paper attempts to explore the reasons behind policymakers’ impotence to reform public finances. By providing a path-dependent explanation, it argues that both communist and postcommunist governments used the general budget as a buffer to compensate losers of economic reforms, especially microeconomic restructuring. The ever-widening circle of net benefiters of welfare provisions paid from the general budget, however, has made it simply unrealistic to implement sizeable fiscal adjustment, putting the country onto a deteriorating path of economic development
Why do not They Move from Rural to Urban Areas? Inter-Regional Migration in Romania
Get PDFThis paper examines the role of wages and unemployment rates as major potential economic causes of internal migration between the separate regions of Romania in the period 1995-2005. The different inter-regional migration routes are treated as cross-section units in a panel data structure, with unobserved characteristics for each route modelled as fixed effects. The cross-section SUR (seemingly unrelated regressions) estimation indicates that wage in origin regions had a significant influence on internal migration flows, but unemployment rates in origin and destination regions have apparently played no part. When time is accounted for, results show that wages in destination regions become very significant and migration is explained by pull rather than push effects.regional migration, Harris-Todaro model, transition economies, Romania, SUR estimation
What About a World Currency? Proposal for a Common Currency among Rich Democracies. One World Money, Then and Now
Get PDFRegional and International Currency Arrangements
Exchange-Rate Arrangements and Financial Integration in East Asia: On a Collision Course?
Get PDFFinancial integration in Ease Asia is actively being pursued and will in due course lead to substantial mobility of capital between economies in the region. Plans for monetary cooperation as a prelude to monetary integration and ultimately monetary unification are also proposed. These plans often suggest that central banks should adopt some form of common exchange rate policy in the transition period towards full monetary union. This paper argues that this is a dangerous path in the context of highly integrated financial markets. An alternative approach is proposed where independent central banks coordinate their monetary policies through the adoption of common objectives and by building an appropriate institutional framework. When this coordination process has progressed to the point where interest rate developments are similar across the region, and if in the meantime the required institutional infrastructure has been build, the next step towards monetary unification can be taken among those central banks that so desire. The claim is that this transition path is likely to be robust and will limit the risk of currency crises.Regional and International Currency Arrangements
Central Bank and Price Stability: Is a Single Objetive Enough?
Get PDFCurrent developments in monetary theory, coupled with the recent practical experience of many and diverse central banks, suggest a number of basic tenets that could be regarded as effective guideposts in the search for successful practices that could contribute to attain and to sustain macroeconomic stabilization. While common sense, the myriad of accompanying circumstances within which policies and institutions develop, tend to confound their significance and to blur their basic meaning and implications. The purpose of this paper is to review and revisit, in the light of prevailing experience, the state of the art regarding monetary and central banking policies and analyze, by outlining these experiences in the form of seven basic principles, their significance for the achievement and the maintenance of macroeconomic stabilization. While each of these principles can be reviewed independently, they are, of course closely linked. The paper first scrutinizes the manner in which the literature has dealt with these issues and, in light of recent experiences, attempts to integrate them into an unified framework and to draw a number of policy lessons and theoretical implications.
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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