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    The contribution of migration to population change in Europe : 1991-2011 : KING Project – Demography Unit In-depth Study n.18/October 2014

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    The present paper, by Maria Rita Testa from the “Demography” team directed by Gian Carlo Blangiardo, belongs to the research paper series of the KING – Knowledge for INtegration Governance – project. The KING project is a translation into facts of the idea that knowledge should be the foundation stone of policy-making. Co-funded by the European Commission – DG Home Affairs, it intends to gather knowledge on the present position in relation to migrant integration throughout the European Union, with a view to guiding policymaking and enhancing its outcomes. In order for policies to respond to what is a multifaceted phenomenon, a multidisciplinary approach is used for providing insightful and relevant recommendations. Thus, the Advisory Board of the project comprises experts of seven different disciplines: EU POLICY – Yves Pascouau POLITICAL SCIENCE - Alberto Martinelli PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION – Walter Kindermann SOCIAL SCIENCE – Rinus Penninx APPLIED SOCIAL STUDIES – Jenny Phillimore ECONOMICS – Martin Kahanec & Alessandra Venturini DEMOGRAPHY – Gian Carlo Blangiardo. The project consists in the conduct of a preliminary desk research followed by an empirical in-depth analysis of specific key topics identified within the desk research. To carry out these two tasks, each Advisory Board member chose and coordinated a team of three to four researchers, who have been assigned a range of topics to cover. The KING project is coordinated by the ISMU Foundation - Initiatives and Studies on Multiethnicity. Learn more about the project and download all the research papers and reports at www.king.ismu.org

    Family Formation in France: Individual Preferences and Subsequent Outcomes

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    In France, as in all European countries, the birth of a first child has been increasingly delayed over time, but the reasons why individuals decide to postpone the time to become a parent still remain to be deeply investigated at the micro level. In this prospective study we analyse fertility preferences and subsequent reproductive behaviour of childless people, and implement a model that uses desires, or intentions, with their related timing, as key covariates. Results show that desired and intended fertility are a strong predictor of subsequent family formation, even after controlling for the effects of other relevant variables, and people become more realistic about their short-term childbearing plans when asked to assess their personal chance to have a future birth. Moreover, highly educated people anticipate their own transition to parenthood more precisely, as compared to low educated people. Age is the most crucial factor determining the probability to remain involuntarily childless in the interval between the surveys, while persistent childlessness is mostly associated with the lack of a partner if it is a consequence of a deliberate choice to postpone childbearing.
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