34 research outputs found
Return and Maturity Relationship for Treasury Auctions: Theory and Evidence From Turkey / Hakan Berument and Ery M. Yucel
No full textEstimation and forecasting of PM10 air pollution in Ankara via time series and harmonic regressions
No full textIn this study, monthly particulate matter (PM10) values in Ankara (39.9334° N, 32.8597° E) from January 1993 to December 2017 are examined. The PM10 are those thoracic particles whose aerodynamic diameter is less than 10 μm (micrometers), and it is of critical health importance due to the penetrability to the lower airways. As an alternative to classical unit root tests, a unit root test primarily based on periodograms is introduced owing to its advantages over alternatives. After examining the stationarity of the series through periodogram-based test as well as its standard rivals, periodic components in the series are examined and it is observed that the series has both periodic and seasonal components. These components are modeled, using the inherent dynamics of a time series alone, within a trigonometric harmonic regression setup, eventually yielding the forecast values for 2018 that turns out to be superior to those obtained by means of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average). This is a striking result since the modeling framework requires no assumptions, no parameter estimations except for the variance of the white noise series, no simulations of the power of tests, no adjustments of test statistics with respect to sample size and no preliminary work as to independent variable which is simply time, i.e., the period of forecast
Click to Download Data : An Event Study of Internet Access to Economic Statistics
No full textThis study examines the online access statistics of the Central Bank of Turkey's Electronic Data Delivery System within an event study framework. The comparisons of pre-event and post-event statistics suggest that announcements of both the policy interest rates and the consumer price data considerably affect society's data access behavior. The timing and amplitude of these effects are further studied with respect to inflation expectations and surprise content of events; yet no solid pattern was revealed.Data access, Macroeconomic data, Market efficiency, Event study
The Day-of-the-Week Effect on Stock-Market Volatility and Return: Evidence from Emerging Markets (in English)
No full textThis study investigates day-of-the-week (DOW) anomalies in the stock markets of twenty emerging economies. The authors use a modified exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in-mean (EGARCH-M) modeling strategy that allows for the simultaneous examination of DOW effects on market return and variability. The effects on both are limited in the authors´ sample. To summarize, DOW effects are present in market returns for only three countries, in market volatility for only five countries, and they are present in both for only one country, when the estimates are evaluated at the 1 percent significance level. Despite this, at lower levels of significance the common qualitative patterns in the estimates are extracted such that the higher returns are concentrated around Fridays, whereas volatility is highest on Mondays and lowest on Tuesdays and Fridays.day-of-the-week effect, EGARCH-M, emerging-market economies, volatility
Return and Maturity Relationship for Treasury Auctions: Theory and Evidence From Turkey
No full textHakan Berument and Ery M. Yuce
A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models
No full textThis note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis
A bibliometric review of the research papers of the Central Bank of Turkey
No full textThis paper presents a bibliometric assessment of the research papers produced in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from 1988 to 2009. Concentration over subjects and the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification codes are provided in addition to the time distribution of bibliography cited in the research papers. Overall, it is observed that the examined series did provide an adequate pool of knowledge for both academics and the general public.Bibliometrics; Central bank research; Economic research
Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data
No full textThe effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed
Does Ramadan Have Any Effect on Food Prices: A Dual-Calendar Perspective on the Turkish Data
No full textThe effects of a specific religious tradition on the food prices establish the central theme of this paper. In specific, I investigate whether the month Ramadan has any effect on food prices. I perform the analysis under two alternative calendar conventions, namely the Gregorian and Hijri calendars. Under both conventions, the paper reveals the effects of Ramadan, yet these effects are better captured when the latter is used. This highlights the importance of the calendar choice on econometric analysis, on the basis of a simple-yet-genuine socio-economic exercise. Possible benefits from this exercise in pedagogical terms as well as in inflation forecasting are also addressed.Seasonality; Ramadan; Food prices; Calendar effects
A bibliometric review of the research papers of the Central Bank of Turkey
No full textThis paper presents a bibliometric assessment of the research papers produced in the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey from 1988 to 2009. Concentration over subjects and the Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) classification codes are provided in addition to the time distribution of bibliography cited in the research papers. Overall, it is observed that the examined series did provide an adequate pool of knowledge for both academics and the general public
