1,720,991 research outputs found
Rec. di Luca De Angelis, Qualcosa di più intimo. Aspetti della scrittura ebraica del Novecento italiano: da Svevo a Bassani. Prefazione di Alberto Cavaglion, Firenze, La Giuntina, 2006
No full textrecensione della monografia di Luca De Angelis, dedicata agli aspetti di "ebraicità" degli scrittori ebrei; la ricaduta stilistica di tali caratteristiche sembra estremamente rilevante
Rec. di Luca De Angelis, Qualcosa di più intimo. Aspetti della scrittura ebraica del Novecento italiano: da Svevo a Bassani. Prefazione di Alberto Cavaglion, Firenze, La Giuntina, 2006
No full textrecensione della monografia di Luca De Angelis, dedicata agli aspetti di "ebraicità" degli scrittori ebrei; la ricaduta stilistica di tali caratteristiche sembra estremamente rilevante
Efficiency of online football betting markets
No full textThis paper evaluates the efficiency of online betting markets for European (association) football leagues. The existing literature shows mixed empirical evidence regarding the degree to which betting markets are efficient. We propose a forecast-based approach for formally testing the efficiency of online betting markets. By considering the odds proposed by 41 bookmakers on 11 European major leagues over the last 11 years, we find evidence of differing degrees of efficiency among markets. We show that, if the best odds are selected across bookmakers, eight markets are efficient while three show inefficiencies that imply profit opportunities for bettors. In particular, our approach allows the estimation of the odds thresholds that could be used to set profitable betting strategies both ex post and ex ante. (C) 2018 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
PARX model for football match predictions
Full text linkWe propose an innovative approach to model and predict the outcome of football matches based on the Poisson autoregression with exogenous covariates (PARX) model recently proposed by Agosto, Cavaliere, Kristensen, and Rahbek (Journal of Empirical Finance, 2016, 38(B), 640-663). We show that this methodology is particularly suited to model the goal distribution of a football team and provides a good forecast performance that can be exploited to develop a profitable betting strategy. This paper improves the strand of literature on Poisson-based models, by proposing a specification able to capture the main characteristics of goal distribution. The betting strategy is based on the idea that the odds proposed by the market do not reflect the true probability of the match because they may also incorporate the betting volumes or strategic price settings in order to exploit betters' biases. The out-of-sample performance of the PARX model is better than the reference approach by Dixon and Coles (Applied Statistics, 1997, 46(2), 265-280). We also evaluate our approach in a simple betting strategy, which is applied to English football Premier League data for the 2013-2014, 2014-2015, and 2015-2016 seasons. The results show that the return from the betting strategy is larger than 30% in most of the cases considered and may even exceed 100% if we consider an alternative strategy based on a predetermined threshold, which makes it possible to exploit the inefficiency of the betting market
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Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets
Full text linkStudies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win. These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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