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A STUDY ON TFT LCD INDUSTRY ANALYSIS AND GLOBAL SUPPLY-DEMAND MODELLING
No full text供給與需求的預測是產業與證券分析的基礎；然而，不同的內部與外部因數均會影響到產業以及市場，也因此造成了預估準確性的困難度。此篇論文主要在探討兩個主題：一、對薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器(TFT-LCD) 市場結構、產業行 為、穫利表現（SCP）作更深入的了解。二、藉由擴散理論的應用建立出一個供需模型，並對此新興科技產業的需求(2004至2010)與供給(2004至2005)做出動態的預測。
此篇研究建立在以下的結論:
1. TFT LCD是個高度競爭的產業，較鬆散的市場結構與產品的高同 性都導致面板價格在週期性的衰退過程中嚴重的跌價。藉由使用次一世代的生產技術而省下的成本大多都會轉嫁至末端的使用者身上，唯有企業獨特針對生產成本降低而開發的的新產品或過程精簡化才有可能獲得穩定的成本優勢。
2. 採取先行者優勢的策略在此產業中的成效是顯著的，新世代技術可以提高營運邊際利潤率達6-9%，比競爭對手提早推出新產品可使新 式廠房維持2.5年的經濟性獲利。對於新興的高科技，面版廠商應自初期便持續不斷的投資以擴大，或至少維持，本身的獲利能力。腳步較慢的跟隨者在推出產品時就只能以較低的價格出售，獲利率會變得較低，新世代生產線的穫利週期也會較短。
3. TFT-LCD產業就長期而言將會是持續高度成長的，先進的生產技術 及龐大的財務需求將會造成產業長期有較高的進入障礙。在這大者恆大的競賽中，我們將可以預見一個更集中的市場結構。隨著TFT-LCD的應用擴及LCD顯示器以及液晶電視(LCD TV)市場，我們可以 預期 TFT-LCD製造商的議價 能力在未來將增強。
4. 預計從2004至2010年， TFT-LCD產業會有15.8%的需 求複合年成長 率(CAGR)，而液晶電視預期將成為推動產業的主力﹔相較於筆記型電腦9.7%與LCD顯示器14.3%的CAGR，液晶電視將可達到68.3%的年成長率。
5. LCD顯示器的普及率預期將在2004年達到高峰— 也就是其問世後的 第八年﹔相較於CRT(映像管)顯示器在其推出後20年(1999)才達 到高 峰，LCD有 較快的擴散速度。
6. TFT-LCD產業對於短期的液晶電視需求過於樂觀。就目前而言，液 晶電視的買家仍視其為一個”昂貴的傳統電視”，而非一”必購”的新科技商品﹔而替代性科技商品的存在，像是電漿電視(PDP)，也都會使液晶電視的擴展速度趨於緩慢。
7. 2005年潛在的過度供給很有可能是導因於液晶電視面板生產產能過剩；然而，玻璃基板的短缺與新廠房啟用時間的延遲多少會減輕2005年供給過量的情形。Supply-demand forecasting is the groundwork for industry analysis and security analysis. However, accuracy is hard to achieve given the range of internal and external variables that affect industries and markets. The objective of this thesis is two-fold: firstly, to provide a deeper understanding of the market structure, conduct and performance (SCP) of the Thin Film Transistor Liquid Crystal Display (TFT LCD) industry, and secondly, to provide dynamic end-demand forecasts (from 2004-2010) and supply estimates (from 2004-2005) for this new technology by building a supply-demand model through the application of innovation diffusion theory.
This research posits several finding.
1. TFT LCD is a highly competitive industry. Less concentrated market structure and product homogeneity will lead to intensify price cut during a cyclical downturn. Majority of cost savings by migrating to advanced technology are passed on to end-users. Only firm-specific cost savings via product and process re-design can generate sustainable cost edges.
2. Early mover strategy counts in the industry. A new generation of technology can improve operating margins for a given product by 6-9%. Higher returns on the new fab can be sustained for 2.5 years by roll-outing new products ahead of rivals. TFT LCD companies should try to extend or sustain profitability through continued early stage investment in new technology. Latecomers will face lower prices at launch and should thus generate much lower returns over a shorter time span.
3. TFT LCD’s industry performance should improve in the long run. HII will advance due to higher barrier of entries in terms of technology capability and financial muscle. With the “big getting bigger,” we are likely to see a more concentrated market structure in the future. With TFT LCD’s applications expanding into LCD monitor and LCD TV whose markets are even less concentrated, we expect TFT LCD makers’ bargaining power to improve going forward.
4. TFT LCD demand to rise at a CAGR of 15.8% from 2004-2010. LCD TV is forecast to be growth driver for the industry from 2004-2010 with a CAGR of 68.3%, versus notebook PC’s 9.7% and LCD monitor’s 14.3%.
5. LCD monitor’s diffusion is expected to peak in 2004—eight years after its introduction. This is shorter than CRT monitor’s, which peaked in 1999, more than 20 years after its launch. This result is in line with what Bass’ theory highlighted, that is, the expected demand dynamics can affect the process choice decision.
6. TFT LCD industry is overly optimistic on near term LCD TV demand. Currently, LCD TV buyers treat it as another conventional item to replace their existing TV rather than a “must-buy” good forced by any “technology push”. Availability of alternative technology, such as PDP, will also slow the diffusion speed of LCD TV.
7. Potential oversupply in 2005 is likely due to excess capacity for the LCD TV market. However, a shortage of mother glass and likely delay in new fab rollouts may mitigate 2005 overcapacity to some extent.Abstract …………………………………………………………………..I
Chinese Abstract …………………………………………….………….III
Acknowledgements ……………………………………….……………IV
Table of Contents …………………………………………..……………V
List of Tables ……………………………………………….…………VII
List of Figures ……………………………………………….………..VIII
1. Introduction …………………………………………………………...1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation ……………………………………1
1.2 Research Problem and Purpose …………………………………………...2
1.3 Research Structure and Flow ……………………………………………...7
2. Literature Review ……………………………………………………..8
2.1 S-curve diffusion ………………………………………………………….8
2.2 Bass model ………………………………...…………..…………………8
2.3 Product Life Cycle ……………………………………………………….11
2.4 Price elasticity ……………………….…………………………………..12
2.5 Price elasticity demand model …………………………………………..15
3. TFT LCD Industry Analysis………………………………………….17
3.1 TFT LCD emerging as growth driver in tech universe ………………….17
3.2 TFT LCD makers in the ‘three kingdoms’ ………………………………19
3.3 The economics of the industry …………..………………………………26
3.4 Market structure …………………………………………………………35
3.5 Pricing behaviour ……………….……………………………………….41
3.6 Long-term returns on TFT LCD ………………………………………...45
3.7 Price sensitivity at end-markets. …………………….…………………..52
4. Demand forecasting using diffusion theory………………………….60
4.1 The end-markets …………………..…………………………………….61
4.2 LCD monitor demand forecast …………………………………………..64
4.3 Notebook PC shipments forecast ………………………………………..76
4.4 Forecast LCD TV diffusion ……………………………………………...79
4.5 Total demand for large size TFT LCD …………………………………..86
4.6 Bass constants among various products …………………………………86
5. Supply forecasting……………………………………………………89
5.1 Model 1-- Real output simulation ……………………………………….92
5.2 Model 2-- Mathematical simulation ……………………………………..96
5.3 Model 3-- Industry aggregate output simulation ……………………...…98
5.4 Results from models ……………………………………………………100
6. Supply-demand forecasts 2004-2005………………………...…… .102
6.1 Potential oversupply in 2005 …………………………………………..102
6.2 Factors likely mitigate 2005 overcapacity …………………………….105
7. Conclusions and Suggestions ………………………………………107
Appendix 1: glossary of display terms ………………………………..122
Appendix 2: TFT-LCD process ……………………………………….127
List of References ……………………………………………………..13
Identification of the Pulmonary Stem/Progenitor Cells From Different Species as the Target Cells for Influenza Virus Infection
No full text在先前的經驗中，我們成功的在無血清（serum-free）的環境下培養出小鼠肺部上皮細胞。其中有一群細胞對SARS冠狀病毒有高度敏感性，且同時表現Oct-4、 SSEA-1、Sca-1及CCSP等幹細胞/肺部前驅細胞標記。這些細胞是否會被其他呼吸道病毒所感染目前還不清楚。在本研究中，我們發現這些細胞同樣能夠被H3N2、 H5N1等流感病毒感染。在細胞被H3N2病毒感染後，在肺部前驅細胞中的HMGB1蛋白會從細胞核移動到細胞質，並釋放出來，同時也偵測到發炎前驅細胞激素（pro-inflammatory cytokines）IL-1β, IL-6及TNF-α的表現增加。然而，我們也發現小鼠肺部上皮細胞並不會被 H5N2所感染。因此，我們嘗試去尋找更適合的細胞來做病毒研究。到目前為止，狗的腎細胞（MDCK）是最常使用的細胞，但為了能夠研究病毒感染時，宿主最真實的反應，我們利用同樣方法培養出雞的肺部上皮細胞。這些細胞能夠被H5N1、H5N2、H6N1和H7N7等病毒感染，且在培養過程中，觀察到有細胞群落（colony）的形成。進一步用PCR及Q-PCR來鑑定這些細胞的特性，我們發現這些細胞表現了鹼性磷酸酶（alkaline phosphatase）、PouV（chicken Oct-4 homologue）、SOX2等幹細胞的標記。同時細胞也表現E-cadherin、pulmonary surfactant protein等肺部上皮細胞的標記。因此，我們認為雞的肺部上皮細胞可以作為很好的病毒研究平台。另一方面，我們利用pRSV-TEX質體（含有SV40 T抗原）轉染入細胞，建立雞的肺部上皮細胞株。在繼代培養6代後，發現細胞與初代培養的細胞表現同樣的特性，且帶有SV40 T抗原。若持續維持及繼代有機會成為雞的肺部上皮細胞株。We have reported a serum-free primary culture system to generate pulmonary epithelium stem/progenitor cells (Oct-4+/SSEA-1+/Sca-1+ and CCSP+) with surrounding stroma cells in mouse. These stem/progenitor cells were the target cells for SARS-CoV infection in primary cultures. However, the targeting potential of these cells for other lung infection-associated viruses remains unclear. We demonstrated the susceptible ability of these colony cells for influenza virus infection, such as H3N2 and H5N1.After H3N2 infection, HMGB1(High mobility group box 1 ) predominantly translocated to the cytoplasm in colony cells, and the pro-inflammatory cytokines like IL-1β, IL-6 TNF-α were up-regulated. However, H5N2 virus could not infect the cells at all. So far, the available cell line to study influenza virus infection was MDCK, which derived from kidney cells of dog. To examine that the pulmonary epithelium stem/progenitor cells were the first target for virus infection, and study the cross-species infection of influenza virus, we established both chicken and mouse pulmonary stem/progenitor cells and to compare their susceptibility of virus infection. The chicken lung epithelial cells were susceptible for H5N1, H5N2, H6N1 and H7N7 virus. Further experiments by RT-PCR and Q-PCR showed the expression of stem cell markers in the chicken lung cells, including alkaline phosphatase (cAP), cPouV, cSOX2, but not cNanog. The E-cadherin, pulmonary surfactant protein, and telomerase were also demonstrated to be expressed in cells. These observation suggested that the chicken pulmonary stem/progenitor cells are able to serve as a good cell model to study the influenza virus infection. Furthermore, we transfected the chicken pulmonary epithelial cells with plasmid pRSV-TEX to establish a cell line suitable for cell-based vaccine production. These cells were subcultured to passage 6, and expressed the same marker as primary cells. SV40 large T antigen also can be detected in passage 6 cells.縮寫表...................................................i文摘要................................................iiBSTRACT...............................................iii一章 緒論..............................................1.1 A型流行性感冒病毒...................................2.1.1 A型流行性感冒之背景及流行現況.....................2.1.2 A型流行性感冒病毒之結構及基因體...................2.1.3 A型流行性感冒病毒之感染途徑及機制.................3.1.4 A型流行性感冒病毒感染所造成之宿主反應.............4.1.5 A型流行性感冒的治療與預防.........................5.1.6 流感疫苗的發展....................................6.2 研究動機............................................7二章 材料與實驗方法....................................8.1 實驗材料與藥品.......................................9.2 細胞株培養..........................................11.3 肺部上皮細胞的初級培養（primary culture）...........11.4 病毒培養、力價測定及感染............................13.5 鹼性磷酸酶（alkaline phosphatase）活性測定..........14.6 細胞免疫染色（Immunocytochemistry）.................14.7 細胞上sialic acid-α2,3-galactose及sialic acid-α2,6-galactose的偵測.........................................15.8 反轉錄聚合酶連鎖反應................................15.9 同步定量聚合酶連鎖反應（Real-time PCR）.............18 .10 雞肺部上皮細胞株建立...............................20三章 實驗結果.........................................22.1 H3N2病毒感染小鼠肺部上皮細胞的情形..................24.2小鼠肺部上皮細胞sialic acid-α2,3-galactose及sialic acid-α2,6-galactose的分佈情形...............................24.3小鼠肺部上皮細胞受到H3N2病毒感染後發炎前驅細胞激素（proinflammatory cytokine）的表現......................24.4小鼠肺部上皮細胞受到H3N2病毒感染後HMGB1的表現........25.5 H5N1及H5N2病毒感染小鼠肺部上皮細胞的情形............25.6 雞肺部上皮細胞群落（colony）型態與形成..............26.7 H5N1及H5N2病毒感染雞肺部上皮細胞的情形..............26.8 H6N1及H7N7病毒感染雞肺部上皮細胞的情形..............26.9雞肺部上皮細胞sialic acid-α2,3-galactose及sialic acid-α2,6-galactose的分佈情形...............................27.10雞肺部上皮細胞特性之鑑定............................27.11雞肺部上皮細胞在不同培養天數下與幹細胞有關之mRNA表現......................................................27.12雞肺部上皮細胞株的建立..............................28.13 pRSV-TEX轉染並繼代培養之雞肺部上皮細胞之鑑定.......28四章 討論.............................................29五章 結論與未來展望...................................36考文獻................................................6
The Study of the Reform toward Regime for Cultural Administration after the 16th NCCPC (Nov,2002-Oct,2006)
No full text本研究從中國共產黨第十六次全國代表大會的整體內外環境因素出發，探討中共文化行政管理體制改革的背景，於歸納改革的目標、過程及作為後發現：
中共文化行政管理體制改革的主要成效為創造盈利、轉變政府職能、推動文化建設、加強法制建設、促進文化事業機關和就業人口的成長及開放文化市場等等，增加了文化活力及競爭力。而中共文化行政管理體制改革目前尚未解決黨與政組織重疊、文化產業與文化事業界線不清及文化法規制定尚未完善的問題。
中共文化行政管理體制改革的主要影響：從政治面來看，改革的成功與否將影響胡錦濤未來的政治之路及中共政治的穩定，並在改革的過程中逐步邁向國際的政治體系；從經濟面來看，改革促進了國家的經濟成長及增加國家的稅收；從社會面來看，改革增加就業機會、提高勞工保障、減少城鄉差距，但也可能衝擊農村價值觀及影響社會穩定。
本研究發現，文化行政管理改革具有延續過去的改革基礎，路徑一致，且為國家整體改革的一部分的特色，而改革方向則分為以科學管理的方式整併組織職能、降低交易成本、統一全國的文化建設，和以權力下放的方式改革文化審批制度、建立法治、對文化事業的放權等等。最後並對政府提出政策規劃及文化事業改革的政策性建議。The study starts out from the internal and external environment after the 16th NCCPC (National Congress of Communist Party of China) to explore the background of the Reform toward Regime for Cultural Administration and with the following discoveries made after deducting revolutionary objective, process, and performance.
The achievement of the Reform toward Regime for Cultural Administration is in generating profits, changing governmental functions, promoting cultural construction, reinforcing regulatory construction, promoting cultural business department and increasing employment population, and opening up cultural market that help reinforce cultural energy and competitiveness. However, it has not yet helped resolve the issues of party and governmental organization overlapping, ambiguity between cultural industry and cultural business, and integrity of cultural regulations.
The impact of the Reform toward Regime for Cultural Administration: In terms of politics, the success of reformation will affect the political life of Chairman J.T. Hu and the stability of Chinese politics; moreover, the way to internationalized political system throughout the reformation. In terms of economy, the reformation helps improve national economic growth and increase national tax income. In terms of society, the reformation helps increase employment opportunity, improve labor protection, minimize difference between urban and rural, and impact the value of countrymen and social stability.
The study finding, the Reform toward Regime for Cultural Administration is extended from the reformation in the past and it is in conformity with that reformation; moreover, it has made the national reformation unique. The said reformation includes the tasks of: (1) Integrating organizational functions, reducing trade cost, and consolidating national cultural construction in a scientific way; (2) Reforming cultural review system (review approval), establishing law and order, and freeing cultural business (loosening up the control over culture business) through liberation (transferring government control over to business entities). Propose strategic suggestions to government for policy planning and cultural business reformation.第一章 緒論 1
一、問題緣起 2
二、研究動機與研究目的 5
三、研究途徑及研究方法 6
四、概念界定 9
五、文獻探討 15
六、研究範圍與研究限制 24
七、研究架構 25
第二章 十六大前中共文化行政管理體制改革的回顧 27
第一節 十一屆三中全會至十四大前 27
一、改革的特點 28
二、改革的主要內容 29
三、改革的成效和影響 29
第二節 十四大至十六大前 33
一、改革的特點 33
二、改革的主要內容 34
三、改革的成效和影響 37
第三章 十六大中共文化行政管理體制改革的背景 39
第一節 內在因素 41
一、政治環境 41
二、經濟環境 48
三、社會環境 53
第二節 外在因素 58
一、政治方面 58
二、經濟方面 61
三、文化方面 63
第四章 十六大以來中共文化行政管理體制改革的目標和過程及作為 67
第一節 改革的目標 68
一、總體目標 68
二、個別目標 70
第二節 改革的過程 71
一、全面建設小康社會（十六大） 72
二、第五次政府機構改革（十六屆二中全會） 73
三、完善社會主義市場經濟（十六屆三中全會） 74
四、加強黨的執政能力（十六屆四中全會） 76
五、十一五規劃（十六屆五中全會） 77
六、建構社會主義和諧社會（十六屆六中全會） 78
第三節 改革的作為 84
一、轉變政府職能 84
二、加強文化建設 89
三、行政的法制化 97
四、文化事業轉企改制 110
五、改革的試點1 15
第五章 十六大以來中共文化行政管理體制改革的結果和影響 131
第一節 結果評估 133
一、成效 133
二、尚待解決問題 138
第二節 影響評估 141
一、政治面的影響 141
二、經濟面的影響 143
三、社會面的影響 145
第六章 結論 149
第一節 研究發現 149
一、改革的特色 149
二、改革的方向 153
第二節 研究建議 160
一、對政府的政策性建議 160
二、對後續研究的建議 167
參考書目 16
sj-docx-2-tah-10.1177_20406207231179331 – Supplemental material for Real-world patient characteristics and treatment patterns of polycythemia vera in Taiwan between 2016 and 2017: a nationwide cross-sectional study
No full textSupplemental material, sj-docx-2-tah-10.1177_20406207231179331 for Real-world patient characteristics and treatment patterns of polycythemia vera in Taiwan between 2016 and 2017: a nationwide cross-sectional study by Tsung-Hsien Tsai, Lennex Hsueh-Lin Yu, Ming-Sun Yu, Shih-Hao Huang, Alex Jia-Hong Lin, Kuan-Der Lee and Min-Chi Chen in Therapeutic Advances in Hematology</p
sj-docx-1-tah-10.1177_20406207231179331 – Supplemental material for Real-world patient characteristics and treatment patterns of polycythemia vera in Taiwan between 2016 and 2017: a nationwide cross-sectional study
No full textSupplemental material, sj-docx-1-tah-10.1177_20406207231179331 for Real-world patient characteristics and treatment patterns of polycythemia vera in Taiwan between 2016 and 2017: a nationwide cross-sectional study by Tsung-Hsien Tsai, Lennex Hsueh-Lin Yu, Ming-Sun Yu, Shih-Hao Huang, Alex Jia-Hong Lin, Kuan-Der Lee and Min-Chi Chen in Therapeutic Advances in Hematology</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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