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    The Dynamic Effect of Word of Mouth-Take American Movies as Examples

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    這是一個快速經濟的時代,現在的消費者口味多變,企業為了迎合消費者,往往不斷的推出新產品。同時,在這資訊極為流通的時代,消費者無時不接受到「口碑」及「網路口碑」的訊息,也因此左右了消費者的消費決定。而電影等娛樂產業的產品,與一般的耐久財相較,更具有快速變遷、生命週期短且不確定性高的特性。因此對電影出版者而言,希望有一套完整的預測模式來預測電影的銷售量。而過去研究探討的口碑效果對電影票房的影響,多著重於口碑效果對於整體票房的影響力,極少探討到口碑的動態性效果。 本研究以美國IMDB網站(www.imdb.com)為資料的來源,蒐集2006年在美國上映的電影中,總票房最高的前30名電影的上映資料為研究對象,並且蒐集這30部電影的各週的消費者評分、消費者評分人數及其他電影的基本資料。而研究分析模式的主要分析方法為Bass 擴散模式及線性迴歸模式。其中Bass 擴散模式更包含了Bass 擴散模式的原型和修正過後的Bass 擴散模式,其中修正過後的Bass 擴散模式是將模仿係數q做不同的設定。線性迴歸模式則是分別以每週各電影資料的自變數的組合,以應變數為當週票房boxofficet跑線性迴歸,也以應變數為當週票房與上週票房的變化率 跑線性迴歸。 在兩種主要模式的分析之下,研究電影的口碑效果是否的確具有動態性影響,並且探討哪些自變數會影響到當週票房及票房變化率,有哪些自變數會造成正向且顯著的影響?針對研究結果提出行銷意涵,期望對企業有所貢獻,也對後續研究有所助益。We live in a generation of fast economy and the tastes of the consumer are highly changeable. All enterprises want to catch the appetite of the consumers, giving them the best and the most suitable product. Meanwhile, in the generation that the information circulate so fast, consumers’ decisions are affected by the “word-of-mouth” and “word-of-mouse”. Movie and the entertainment industry are especially affected by these information flows. Comparing with the durable goods, entertainment industry provides the products with the characteristics of changing speedy and short product life cycle. Therefore, the movie publishers are willing to know what the consumers really want and what really have impact on their choice. The database of this research is American website: IMDB (www.imdb.com). I collected the top 30 selling movies in America during the year 2006 and the information and critics of the movies on the website for research purpose. The research models are Bass Diffusion model and linear regression. Among the Bass Diffusion model, there are the prototype and the revise type of it. The revise model changes the imitation factor q. And the linear regression is the combinations of the movie independent variable with the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. Under these models, the research examines whether there’s a movement of movie word-of-mouse, and what kinds of independent variable will have the positive effect on the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. In light of the research results, hoping to find out the marketing meaning of the movie industry and also having contribution to the further research.口試委員審定書..........................................................................................................I謝..............................................................................................................................II文摘要......................................................................................................................III文摘要......................................................................................................................IV錄...............................................................................................................................V一章 緒論第一節 研究背景與動機.......................................................................................1第二節 研究目的...................................................................................................1第三節 論文架構概述...........................................................................................2二章 文獻探討第一節 口碑效果...................................................................................................4 一、口碑的定義...................................................................................................4 二、口碑的使用時機...........................................................................................5 三、口碑的說服效果...........................................................................................6第二節 網路口碑...................................................................................................7 一、網路口碑的形式和定義...............................................................................7 二、傳統口碑與網路口碑的差異.......................................................................7第三節 創新擴散概念...........................................................................................8 一、創新使用者類型...........................................................................................8 二、創新決策過程的模式..................................................................................10 三、溝通效果層級..............................................................................................11 四、決定接受創新接受率的變數......................................................................13 第四節 擴散模式..................................................................................................15 一、Bass擴散模式..............................................................................................15 二、Bass擴散模式參數估計法..........................................................................16三章 研究方法第一節 研究架構..................................................................................................21第二節 研究方法與模式......................................................................................22 一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型.....................................................................22 二、線性迴歸.....................................................................................................24四章 實證分析研究第一節 資料來源分析.........................................................................................26 一、電影銷售資料.............................................................................................26第二節 實證模型建構.........................................................................................31 一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型.....................................................................31 二、修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式 ..............................................................31 三、線性迴歸 ...................................................................................................31五章 結論與建議第一節 研究數據與結果.....................................................................................34 一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型....................................................................34 二、修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式...............................................................41 三、線性迴歸....................................................................................................48第二節 研究發現與行銷意涵............................................................................50第三節 研究限制................................................................................................51 一、基本資料限制............................................................................................51 二、模式限制....................................................................................................51第四節 後續研究建議........................................................................................51 一、基本資料的搜集........................................................................................51 二、模式限制....................................................................................................52目錄 圖2-3-1 創新產品使用者類型(Rogers分法) ......................................................8 圖2-3-2 創新產品使用者類型(Bass分法) ........................................................10 圖2-3-3 創新決策模式.........................................................................................11目錄 表2-1 創新決策過程的各個階段......................................................................12 表3-2 口碑效果的評分的四大類型..................................................................23 表4-1 30部電影基本資料.................................................................................29表5-1-1  Bass連續型擴散模式的原型,q>0.0001.........................................34表5-1-2 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型,q>0.00001.........................................36 表5-1-3 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型,q>0.000001.......................................38表5-1-4 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式,q=v*g...........................................41表5-1-5 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式,q=v*wom.....................................43表5-1-6 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式,q=v*ab.........................................45表5-1-7 應變數為boxofficet..............................................................................48表5-1-8 應變數為 .........................................................49表5-1-9 boxoffice = + theater + totalt-1 + avgt-1...........................49考文獻一、中文部份.........................................................................................................53二、英文部分.........................................................................................................53錄附錄一 各電影的票房變化趨勢.........................................................................5

    The variations of current on Green Island Ridge in the southeast of Taiwan

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    黑潮是流經臺灣東部海域重要的洋流,源於北緯10度至20度由東向西流的北赤道洋流,當北赤道洋流向西流至菲律賓東邊附近海域後分為南北兩支流,北向分支即為黑潮,沿菲東岸往北流經呂宋海峽流向臺灣東部海域。然而過去研究中,臺灣東南海域長時間的現場觀測資料較為稀少,為了對流經此區域的黑潮以及此區域的潮汐有更詳細的了解,有必要進一步的研究討論。本研究主要利用五組位於綠島西北面海域的錨碇式都卜勒流速剖面儀於2011年5月到2012年8月期間所測得的海流資料,來探討臺灣東南海域海流的變化。 觀測流速資料顯示較靠近綠島的S1站海流流向為北北東,北向流速最快可達2.26 m/s,靠近臺灣的S5站海流流向為東北,平行於臺灣東海岸線,北向流速可達1.77 m/s。流速資料經頻譜分析的結果顯示此區域潮流運動以O1潮、K1潮、M2潮為主,各分潮的潮流橢圓垂直結構也顯示本區域潮流包含了正壓以及斜壓潮流運動,本研究利用深度平均法將正壓潮與斜壓潮分解,結果顯示斜壓潮呈現一個節點以及兩個節點為主的情形。進一步將觀測海流資料經過16天的低通濾波濾除相對高頻的潮汐訊號後,從流速時序資料可看到數個季節內低頻的變化,本文定義北向流速在兩個月內變化超過0.1 m/s 為變動事件,歸納總共連續15個月橫跨夏季以及冬季的觀測資料,共有5次流速增強的事件以及3次流速減弱的事件。利用衛星觀測海面高度資料研究海表面高度異常的分佈以及了解海流於空間上的變化,結果顯示5次增強事件中可能有4次與正的海表面高度異常有關,而3次減弱事件中有2次可能與負的海表面高度異常有關。此外,有些流速的增減事件也與上游黑潮路徑向太平洋方向偏移或者入侵南海等現象有關。而海表面高度異常的分佈可能會改變觀測區域的流速,亦可能改變本研究區域的水文垂直結構進而改變斜壓潮流流場。Kuroshio is the major current flowing through the east of Taiwan, which is originated from the North Equatorial current between 10 degrees to 20 degrees north latitude.When the North Equatorial current flows westward to the east of Philippines, it is divided into north and south branch.The north branch is the Kuroshio,and it flows along the east coast of Philippines and then truns northward to the Luzon Strait to the east of Taiwan. There were few mooring observations of the current in the southeast of Taiwan in previous studies. In this study, we used five Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler which set up on the northwest of Green Island from May 2011 to August 2012,to explore the variation of this current in the southeast of Taiwan. The current velocity data showed that the current flow is north north east at the S1 station which is near to Green Island. The velocity of the northward current can reach 2.26 m/s. Similarly, the current flow is northeast at the S5 station which is close to Taiwan, and it is parallel to the coastline of east Taiwan, and the velocity of the northward current can reach 1.77 m/s . Using Spectrum analysis to study the velocity data, the results showed of O1、K1、M2 tidal currents in this area significantly. The vertical structure of each tidal currents also showed that the tidal currents in this area are containing the barotropic tide and baroclinic tide.This study discussed the barotropic tide and baroclinic tide by depth-average separating. The results showed that the 1st baroclinic mode and 2nd baroclinic mode dominated. Further this study analyzed the current by using the sixteen days low pass filter to filter the tidal signals which are relative high frequency. After low pass filter, the current displays many of the intraseasonal variations of the low frequency.This study defined the north velocity changes more than 0.1 m/s for the event during two months. Sumed up the observation in a total of 15 consecutive months which across the summer and winter, there are 5 velocity enhancing events and 3 velocity decreasing events. Using the satellite altimetry data sea level anomaly to distinguish eddies and to study the currents on the horizontal space. The results showed that there were four times events contacted with the warm eddy within five enhancing events and two times events contacted with the cold eddy within three decreasing events. In addition, the velocity enchancing events and the decreasing events were also contacted with the path of Kuroshio shifted to the Pacific Ocean or the invasion of the South China Sea. The eddies not only changed the velocity but also change the hydrology of the vertical structure and then changed the baroclinic tidal currents

    Frequency Dependent On-Chip Inductance Modeling

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    晶片電感的模塑是現今超大型積體電路設計中最熱門的話題之一。快速且準確地根據不同的操作頻率計算晶片電感的值是很重要的。 隨著操作頻率超過十億赫茲,晶片電感所造成的效應將不能再像往常一樣的被忽略。有許多不同的研究專注在模塑晶片電感的效應,而他們大部分都是場擷取器(field solver),例如FastHenry。場擷取器提供了精確的量測以及模擬結果,但是他們卻需要花費很多算上的時間。 在這篇論文裡,我們提出了一個新的方法來模塑晶片電感,而這個方法是針對集膚效應(skin effect)這個現象為主。我們首先套用容積細絲模型(volume filament model)來將導線本身切成更小的細絲(filament),然後測量每一條的電感值。在這之後,我們我們會將每一條測出來的值,乘以一個由電流分布密度(current density distribution)得來的衡量因子(weighting factor)。在這裡,我們為了將電流分布密度的預測簡單化,我們會使用數學近似的方法。當最後每條細絲都乘上了衡量因子,我們會把他們加總,得到最後的電感值。 由於使用了近似的公式來預測電流分布密度,我們可以大大的減少自身電感(self inductance)以及相互電感(mutual inductance)的測量上所需要的計算時間,而且不會損失其準確性。因此,整個晶片上的晶片電感萃取便可快速且準確地被完成。On-chip inductance modeling is one of the most popular issues in VLSI designs nowadays. It is important to calculate on-chip inductance values efficiently and accurately according to the operating frequencies. As the operating frequency reaches over gigahertz, the effect of inductance can no longer be ignored as it used to be. There are many of different researches focusing on modeling on-chip inductance and most of them are field solvers such as FastHenry. Field solvers provide accurate evaluated results but they require much more computational complexity and are time consuming. In this Thesis, we proposed a new method of modeling on-chip inductance that features the skin effect phenomenon. We first apply the volume filament model to divide the traces into smaller filaments and then evaluate the inductance value of each filament. After that, we multiply each filament with a weighting factor, which is derived from the current density distribution in the trace. Here we made the prediction of current density distribution easy to calculate by using mathematical approximation. Having all the weighted inductance value of each filament, we can therefore derive the inductance value of the whole trace. By using the approximated formulation of current density distribution, we can tremendously decrease the time of evaluating both self-inductance and mutual inductance values without losing accuracy. Therefore, the whole chip inductance extraction can be completed accurately and efficiently.ABSTRACT i LIST OF FIGURES v CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Motivation 1 1.2 Difficulties of Inductance Extraction 2 1.3 Inductance Calculation 4 1.3.1 Loop Inductance 4 1.3.2 Partial Inductance 5 1.4 Previous Work 8 1.5 Our Contribution 10 1.6 Thesis Organization 11 CHAPTER 2 HIGH FREQUENCY EFFECTS 13 2.1 High Speed Behavior of Interconnect 13 2.2 Skin Effect 14 2.2.1 The Cause of Skin Effect 15 2.2.2 Frequency Dependent Resistance and Inductance 16 2.2.3 Skin Depth 17 2.3 Proximity Effect 18 2.4 Skin Effect Modeling 19 2.5 Volume Filament Model 21 2.5.1 Brief Overview 21 2.5.2 Discretization 22 CHAPTER 3 CURRENT DISTRIBUTION MODEL 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 Bessel Function 26 3.3 Modified Bessel Function 29 3.4 Current Distribution Computation 31 3.5 Simplified Current Distribution Model 35 CHAPTER 4 INDUCTANCE MODEL 41 4.1 Brief Overview 41 4.2 Self Inductance Modeling 42 4.2.1 Formula Based Model 42 4.2.2 The Compound Current Density Model 44 4.2.3 Estimation of Self Inductance 45 4.3 Mutual Inductance Modeling 48 4.3.1 Estimation of Mutual Inductance 49 4.3.2 Some Discussion about Mutual Inductance 50 CHAPTER 5 EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS 53 5.1 Characteristics of Our Model 53 5.2 Self Inductance 56 5.3 Mutual Inductance 59 CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSION 61 REFERENCE 6

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods

    Author Index

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    koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist

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    We have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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