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The Financial Risk Analysis of Taiwan High Speed Rail
No full text台灣高速鐵路的營建為目前世界上金額最大的BOT案，由政府授權予台灣高鐵公司35年的特許興建及營運期。本研究即以此背景，藉由前人對台灣高鐵所做的研究瞭解與高速鐵路相關的概念及風險種類，並藉由在國外已營運多年之成功高速鐵路的財務分析，與台灣高鐵之情況做比較，進而分析其未來所可能遭遇的風險。
本研究之主要結果彙整敘述如下：
1. 台灣高鐵的銷售數量風險程度為中等，其所服務的多為中長程旅次的乘客，公司估算運量通車營運第一年每天約14.8萬人次，短中程的乘客則易選擇客運或台鐵等替代運具。
2. 銷售價格風險程度也屬中等，依據3.459元/人公里為基本費率標準，北高直達車票價約1,299元，介於飛機票價及台鐵票價之間。這對往來北高、習慣搭乘客運或台鐵的民眾會帶來票價昂貴的印象。
3. 台灣高鐵的生產變動成本風險則偏高，高鐵屬於勞力相當密集的產業，而其所帶來的人事成本費用也相對來得多。
4. 台灣高鐵的營運槓桿風險屬於極大的風險，因為軌道運輸具有固定成本高、成本沈沒且自然獨占等等特性，台灣高鐵為世界最大之BOT案，投資金額龐大。
5. 同樣地，台灣高鐵的財務槓桿風險也相當大，高鐵五大站區的事業開發，前五年都處於投資期，無法增加營收，每天光靠票箱收入，不但要攤平固定管銷成本，又要償還數千億元的借款與利息，台灣高鐵所背負的財務壓力相當沉重。The construction of Taiwan High Speed Rail is the biggest Building -Operation-Transfer case in the world. The Taiwanese government has granted the Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation a 35-year period of construction and operation. The research project is based on former studies concerning Taiwan High Speed Rail and risks of high speed rail, and compares the current situation of Taiwan High Speed Rail with the operational results of foreign high speed rail companies and analyzes all the potential risks Taiwan High Speed Rail may encounter in the future.
The research findings are as follows:
1. The sales quantity risk level of Taiwan High Speed Rail is medium. Taiwan High Speed Rail Corporation estimates the number of passengers in the first year of operation is around 148,000. Passengers traveling shorter distances tend to choose other methods of transportation.
2. The sales price risk level is also medium. According to the basic rate of 3.459 NT dollars per passenger-kilometer, the ticket price of a Taiwan High Speed Rail direct ride from Taipei to Kaohsiung approximates NT 1,299, which is between the price of going by plane and by train. To passengers who are used to take a coach or train this will give the impression that the price of Taiwan High Speed Rail is high.
3. However, the production variable cost risk level is higher. Taiwan High Speed Rail belongs to the highly labor-dense industry, so the salary expenses will be high.
4. On the other hand, the operating leverage risk level of Taiwan High Speed Rail is extremely high because High Speed Rail has high fixed cost and high sunk cost.
5. Likewise, the financial leverage risk level is also extremely high. Taiwan High Speed Rail has to pay back huge loans and interest and has difficulty increasing the revenue at the very beginning of operation. Therefore, the financial burden is quite heavy.目錄
謝詞
中文摘要
英文摘要
目錄
表次
圖次
第一章 緒論……………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機……………………………………………… 1
第二節 研究目的……………………………………………… 2
第三節 研究方法……………………………………………… 2
第四節 研究架構……………………………………………… 3
第二章 文獻回顧與BOT探討…………………………………… 4
第一節 BOT之定義與架構…………………………………… 4
第二節 專案融資風險評估…………………………………… 5
第三節 BOT之財務風險種類…………………………………… 6
第四節 實質選擇權……………………………………………… 9
第三章 台灣高速鐵路公司之個案介紹……………………………11
第一節 台灣高鐵公司之歷史沿革……………………………11
第二節 總體經濟情勢分析……………………………………16
第三節 高鐵對國內航空業及台鐵之衝擊……………………18
第四章 國外高速鐵路之營運現況分析……………………………22
第一節 日本新幹線700系………………………………………23
第二節 西班牙高鐵AVE…………………………………………34
第三節 歐洲THALYS…………………………………………46
第四節 美國Acela Express………………………………………54
第五章 台灣高速鐵路之風險分析…………………………………70
第一節 風險之衡量概念………………………………………70
第二節 銷售風險………………………………………………77
1. 銷售數量風險………………………………………………77
2. 銷售價格風險………………………………………………84
第三節 生產風險…………………………………………………87
第四節 營運槓桿風險……………………………………………89
第五節 財務槓桿風險……………………………………………92
第六節 整體風險評估……………………………………………93
第六章 結論與建議…………………………………………………96
第一節 結論………………………………………………………96
第二節 建議………………………………………………………99
1. 研究限制………………………………………………99
2. 後續研究………………………………………………100
參考文獻.......................................100
附錄一 JR西日本公司2003年財務報表.............109
附錄二 西班牙國鐵RENFE 2003年財務報表.........128
附錄三 荷蘭鐵路公司NS 2003年財務報表..........133
附錄四 美國Amtrak 2003年財務報表..............136
附錄五 台灣高鐵公司2003年財務報表（創業期間）...16
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koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
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Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
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Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1893-1902
No full textIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Dedication -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Spirit Truth -- 2. From Absorption to Theatricality and Back Again -- 3. "I Will Build a New Present" -- 4. Sons as Authors -- 5. Fathers as Publishers -- 6. The Daughter as Author -- 7. Lovers as Authors -- 8. At Sea with the Family -- 9. Yellow News, Yellow Stories -- 10. The Return Home -- Notes -- Bibliography -- Index -- About Jay WilliamsIn Author Under Sail, Jay Williams offers the first complete literary biography of Jack London as a professional writer engaged in the labor of writing. It examines the authorial imagination in London's work, the use of imagination in both his fiction and nonfiction, and the ways he defined imagination in the creative process in his business dealings with his publishers, editors, and agents. In this first volume of a two-volume biography, Williams traverses the years 1893 to 1902, from London's "Story of a Typhoon" to The People of the Abyss. The Jack London who emerges in the pages of Author Under Sail is a writer whose partnership with publishers, most notably his productive alliance with George Brett of Macmillan, was one of the most formative in American literary history. London pioneered many author models during the heyday of realism and naturalism, blurring the boundaries of these popular genres by focusing on absorption and theatricality and the representation of the seen and unseen. London created an impassioned, sincere, and extremely personal realism unlike that of other American writers of the time. Author Under Sail is a literary tour de force that reveals the full range of London as writer, creative citizen, and entrepreneur at the same time it sheds light on the maverick side of machine-age literature.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
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