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    Potential of Analysis of Debris Flow–Fitting and Prediction of Discriminant Analysis

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    台灣處於板塊交界帶,地質狀況破碎且複雜,山崩、地滑及土石流等災害屬於正常的自然現象。每當颱風所帶來的豪雨,造成台灣各地多起土石流災害,故有許多對於土石流發生潛勢分析之研究,其中以費雪區別分析法最為常見。本研究搜集土石流之相關資料,針對南投地區被列入92年水保局所公開之1420條土石流潛勢溪流進行研究。研究重點在於費雪區別分析之擬合與預測,一開始以南投地區土石流潛勢分析為出發,將其影響因子資料庫加以檢查與修正,同時考慮抽樣溪流樣本其數目與分佈情形,其對於費雪區別函數之影響因子以及區別分析之結果皆有所影響,進而對費雪區別函數之正判率與預測準確率,其穩定性與適用性有所影響,故探討影響因子之重要性。觀察原始函數其正判率與驗證率來決定函數之最終模式,達到簡化函數但可充份反應各區土石流潛勢溪流資訊之目的。本研究將一併使用主成份分分析,採與謝育樺(2007)相異之研究方法,並將研究結果與前人相互比較,想對主成份分析其類別項影響因子萃取效果與對於費雪區別分析之適用性做討論。一步探討費雪區別模式之預測可行性,利用南投地區所建立之費雪區別函數預測其相同地質分區,南投以北的台中與南投以下的嘉義地區,討論影響因子之代表性與費雪區別函數之穩定性,並找尋其誤差與影響因子之關係,利用相似性指標(similarity index)來探討預測準確率與影響因子其相似性之關係。希望藉由統計分析的取樣與推論方法,對費雪區別分析之擬合與預測與其適用性加以研究。Taiwan is situated in the junction of tectonic plates, which induces broken and complex geological conditions with freguent, landslides, mudslides and debris flows. The heavy rains carried by typhoon, often caused landslides and debris flows in Taiwan. In this study, the potential analysis of debris flow is intended using the Fisher’s discriminant analysis. This research collects debris flow related data in Nantou County and the debris flow major disaster histories. The debris flow torrents potential analysis was performed based on the 1420 debris flow torrents by Soil-and-Water Conservation-Bureau (2003) in Nantou County.his study focused on fitting and prediction of the Fisher’s discriminant analysis, beginning with the potential analysis of debris flow in Nantou Area, considering its fitting streams using random sampling, the sample distribution. The Fisher’s discriminant analysis of their assumptive testing results have been different, and the resulting Fisher’s discriminant functions of their influence factors nay be different for fitting and prediction, which affect its stability and applicability. By comparing the fitting and prediction rate, the functions of the final model can be adequately determined. Comparisons were made between this research and previous research using the principal component analysis for the study of influence factors, adopting different methods of subdivision study area, finally the applicability of principal component analysis for the Fisher’s discriminant analysis is discussed.he discriminant model based on the Nantou district D randomly selected samples are used for predicting the same geological subdivision D in Taichung, and Chiayi areas. The influence factor stability of the Fisher’s discriminant model and the prediction rate associated with the difference in influence factors were discussed using, and used similarity index.口試委員會審定書 II謝 III要 IVbstract V錄 VI目錄 IX目錄 XI壹章 緒論 1.1 研究動機與目的 1.2 研究方法 2.3 研究內容 2貳章 文獻回顧 3.1 土石流的定義與特徵 3.2 土石流之分類 4.3 土石流發生之條件 7.4 費雪區別分析文獻之研究 9參章 研究區域與資料庫之介紹 17.1 研究區域概況 17.2 基本資料庫之架構與建立 20.3 影響因子 21.3.1 影響因子之選定條件 21.3.2 影響因子之說明 22.4 影響因子之求取 25肆章 影響因子特性與區別分析 41.1 影響因子之統計與分析 41.1.1 地質分區說明 41.1.2 南投各分區之影響因子基本特性 42.1.3 台中、南投與嘉義D地質區之影響因子基本特性 44.2 抽樣 46.2.1 抽樣之基本概念 46.2.2 簡單隨機抽樣 46.3 主成分分析 47.3.1 原理與目的 48.3.2 萃取步驟與規則 48.4 費雪區別分析 50.4.1 原理與假設 50.4.2 分析過程 51.4.3 假設檢定 52.5 影響因子之討論 54伍章 南投地區土石流潛勢分析 85.1 不分地質區之區別分析 85.2 C地質區之區別分析 86.3 D地質區之區別分析 88.4 南投各分區潛勢分級建立 89.5 抽樣與區別函數之討論 90.6 主成份分析與區別分析之討論 91.7 小結 92陸章 土石流潛勢溪流區別分析成果於預測其它地區之可行性 109.1 區別函數預測於其它地質分區 109.2 台中與嘉義D地質區潛勢分級建立 112.3 誤差與影響因子相似性分佈之討論 113.3.1 相似性指標 113.3.2 相似性指標與影響因子之討論 115.3.3 相似性指標與誤差之討論 116.4 小結 118柒章 結論與建議 131.1 結論 131.2 建議 13

    Ab initio investigation on the infrared cutoff of the primordial power spectrum

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    有許多文獻探討宇宙背景輻射的非等向性溫度分布中,l = 2模態的強度和理論預測相比異常偏低的問題。大部分的文獻都提出和標準暴漲模型不同的預測,認為宇宙初始能譜在大尺度的部分有截止的現象。我們研究一個在暴漲期之前具有一段物質主宰時期的早期宇宙模型,並且以第一原理進行計算,檢查這樣的截止現象是否存在。The problem of quadrupole anomaly in the cosmic microwave background temperature anisotropy spectrum is treated in many works. Most of them provide scenarios different from the one of standard inflation and point to a cutoff of power in the primordial power spectrum at large scales. We study the scenario of the early universe with a pre-inflation matter era, and make an ab initio calculation to check the existence of the infrared cutoff

    Study of 2-D and 3-D Nanosphere Lithography for Optoelectronic Device and Sensor Applications

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    奈米球微影術乃是利用自組裝之方式在基板上堆疊出六方緊密週期排列奈米球,其可以把奈米球當做類似光阻之遮罩,並可藉由選擇奈米球大小來控制其週期尺寸;由於其所需設備費用及時間相對於半導體製程便宜且快速,且可應用的範圍很廣,因此是目前奈米製程技術研究的重點之一。而在奈米球的自組裝堆疊中,我們以旋鍍法堆疊出大面積緊密排列的單層奈米球,並且將其當作似光阻作用的遮罩,分別以濕式及乾式蝕刻在矽基板上製作出次波長金字塔結構的抗反射層,成功將反射率由原本的40~50%降至3%以下,另外也利用堆疊在透明基板的六方緊密週期排列單層奈米球製作出在可見光波段具高穿透表面電漿特性之金屬週期性孔洞薄膜。 而在三維蛋白石光子晶體方面,我們探討在不同環境下及奈米球表面帶電荷對堆疊的影響,讓我們對蛋白石的堆疊機制有更進一步的瞭解;另外提供一個可以快速製作二氧化矽反蛋石結構之方式,並以反蛋白石結構滲入金奈米粒子,由於要在微結構內均勻接著金奈米粒子而不聚集有一定難度,但我們找到最佳方式,製作出具三維金奈米粒子的光子晶體,此光子晶體同時具有光子能隙(PBG)及表面電漿(LSPR)之現象,而這兩個特性能個別偵測填入溶液之折射率及接著在金奈米粒子上的生物分子特性。最後我們在有機發光材料添加入光子晶體的實驗中,以液滴滴著法添加之方式,知道有機發光材料滲入光子晶體結構,則會使有機材料的發光波長在光子能隙波段會被侷限住,並且添加發光材料的蛋白石受激發光時會隨著偵測角度的不同,而使光的侷限波段改變,而且可藉由聚苯乙烯的能量轉移使發光強度增加,而能吸附發光材料的結構表面積愈多,能使發光材料能分散的表面積變大,亦能增強發光。Nanosphere lithography (NSL) is a novel method for the fabrication of hexagonal close-packed structures by self-assembly monolayer nanosphere array on flat substrates. Here the monolayer nanospheres are taked as etching mask layer like patterned resists. Furthermore, the period and dimension can be controlled by the size of nanospheres. Because of cheap, rapid, and extensive applications, it’s one of the important nanofabrication techniques. In the fabrication of monolayer nanosphere array, we fabricate large-area monolayer nanospheres by spin coating method and using as etching mask for the fabrication of sub-wavelength pyramid anti-reflection structure on silicon substrate by wet etching and dry etching processes. And the reflectance of silicon substrates can be reduced to 3%. Besides, we fabricate periodical metal hole-arrays which have high surface plasma transmission by deposition and lift-off processes on monolayer nanospheres. And in three-dimensional (3D) opal-like photonic crystal, we investigate the influence of different environments and nanospheres with different surface charge distribution on opal structures. Besides, we provide a rapid fabrication method of fabricating silica inverse opal structure. And we try to infiltrate gold nanoparticles (Au NPs) into inverse opal. It’s hard to catch Au NPs in 3D nano structure without aggregation, but we find the optimal parameter to fabricate inverse opal structure with adhered Au NPs uniformly. This photonic crystal have both photonic band gap(PBG) and localized surface plasma resonance (LSPR) effects, and the two properties in one structure can be used to probe the refractive index of infiltrated solution and the properties of bio-molecular which adhered on Au NPs. At last, we use drop coating method to add organic luminescence material on opal and find the luminescence wavelength at photonic band gap is confined by opal structures. When the detector angle is changed, the confined luminescence wavelength of opal which added organic luminescence material is also changed. Besides, the emission intensity can be enhanced by energy transfer of polystyrene and large surface area.摘 要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III 目 錄 IV 圖目錄 VIII 表目錄 XV 第一章 序論 1 1.1 前言 1 1.2 論文架構 1 第二章 文獻回顧 3 2.1 微影術之簡介(Introduction of Lithography) 3 2.2 奈米球微影術(Nanosphere Lithography,NSL) 6 2.3 二維奈米球微影術 6 2.3.1 奈米球的自組裝方法 6 2.3.2 二維奈米球微影術的應用 10 2.4 太陽能電池的抗反射結構 11 2.5 三維奈米球微影術 14 2.5.1 光子晶體 15 2.5.2蛋白石光子晶體結構的製作 16 2.5.3 反蛋白石光子晶體結構的製作 17 2.6 具表面電漿特性的三維光子晶體介紹 19 2.7 金奈米粒子之特性 21 2.8 混摻有機發光材料之光子晶體 22 第三章 單層奈米球的製作與應用 25 3.1 研究動機與目的 25 3.2 實驗方法 26 3.2.1 實驗材料 26 3.2.2實驗儀器 26 3.2.3實驗步驟 27 3.3 單層聚苯乙烯球製作方法 29 3.3.1 傾斜滴著法 29 3.3.2 旋鍍法 33 3.4 利用單層奈米球製作次波長抗反射層 45 3.4.1 乾式蝕刻抗反射層 45 3.4.2 濕式蝕刻抗反射層 48 3.5 利用單層奈米球製作金屬週期性孔洞薄膜 50 3.6 單層奈米球的製作與應用總結 54 第四章 三維光子晶體接著金奈米粒子之研究 55 4.1 研究動機與目的 55 4.2 實驗方法 55 4.2.1實驗材料 55 4.2.2實驗儀器 56 4.2.3 實驗步驟 57 4.3 蛋白石結構之基本性質 59 4.4 蛋白石結構的堆疊 61 4.4.1 防潮箱與恆溫恆濕箱之比較 63 4.4.2 二元蛋白石結構之概念 63 4.4.3 表面電荷對堆疊之影響 63 4.5 反蛋白石結構 66 4.5.1 反蛋白石結構的製作 66 4.5.2反蛋白石結構的光子特性 69 4.6 金奈米粒子的合成與光學特性 71 4.7 在三維光子晶體內接著金奈米粒子的方式 72 4.7.1在室溫下接著金奈米粒子溶液在不同接著時間之探討 73 4.7.2 在50˚C下對接著效果在不同時間之探討 78 4.7.3 沸騰100˚C下對接著效果在不同時間之探討 81 4.7.4 稀釋不同濃度金奈米粒子對接著的影響 82 4.8 完整接著金奈米粒子的三維光子晶體光學特性 86 4.9 在結構中滲入溶液之測量與研究 88 4.10 三維光子晶體接著金奈米粒子總結 92 第五章 三維光子晶體添加有機發光物之研究 93 5.1 研究動機與目的 93 5.2 實驗方法 93 5.2.1 實驗材料 93 5.2.2 實驗儀器 94 5.2.3 實驗步驟 94 5.3 有機發光材料AMIP的光學性質 95 5.4 量測試片的準備 97 5.5 光子晶體的選擇 97 5.6 螢光光譜儀量測結果與討論 100 5.6.1 光子能隙對發光現象影響之研究 102 5.6.2 能量轉移之現象 111 5.6.3 表面積大小對發光強度的影響 113 5.7 三維光子晶體添加有機發光物研究總結 115 第六章 結論 116 6.1實驗結論 116 6.1.1單層奈米球的製作與應用 116 6.1.2 三維光子晶體接著金奈米粒子之研究 117 6.1.3 三維光子晶體添加有機發光物之研究 117 6.2 未來展望 117 參考文獻 11

    Earthquake risk estimation and management–A case study of compulsory earthquake insurance

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    中文摘要國88年9月21日集集大地震造成全台嚴重損失,政府於民國91年4月1日開辦住宅地震保險提供民眾投保。但是和世界上先進國家相比,我國住宅地震保險投保率仍然偏低,且民眾對地震風險認知仍然不足,因此政府有必要將住宅地震保險納入強制性社會保險中,期望能夠在地震發生時提供民眾保障。於政府開辦強制地震保險,必須重新對我國住宅地震保險基金面對的風險重新估計,制定出合理的保費以及危險分散機制。因此,本研究使用已知的理論模型,包含了地震事件推測模組、地震危害度分析模組、建築物損害分析模組、財務分析模組,假設政府開辦全國強制性地震保險的情境下,重新估計住宅地震保險基金面對的風險,嘗試估計合理的保費,並對保費做敏感性分析,以及找出危險承擔限額,以供決策者參考。目錄…………………………………………………………… i 圖目錄…………………………………………………………… vi 表目錄…………………………………………………………… vii 一章 緒論………………………………………………… 1 一、研究動機……………………………………………………… 1 二、研究目的……………………………………………………… 2 三、研究內容及流程……………………………………………… 2 四、研究限制……………………………………………………… 2二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………… 4 一、台灣的地震風險……………………………………………… 4 二、台灣住宅地震保險基金簡介………………………………… 5三章 理論基礎與模型建構……………………………… 11 一、地震事件推測模組………………………………………… 11 二、地震危害度分析模組……………………………………… 14 三、建築物損害分析模組……………………………………… 15 四、財務分析模組……………………………………………… 16 五、各項數值模擬方法…………………………………………20四章 模擬結果與數值分析……………………………… 23 一、地震事件之年平均損失以及年平均損失標準差…… 23、地震基金之應收保費………………………………… 24、損失超越機率曲線以及危險承擔限額……………… 26、敏感性分析:在不同的風險係數下之應收保費…… 30 五、敏感性分析:投保率對於保費收入之影響…………31、地震基金的損失分配圖………………………………… 32五章 結論………………………………………………… 34考文獻……………………………………………………… 3

    The PI/SI Effects on Ultra High-Speed and Low Voltage SDRAM I/O Circuits with Decoupling Capacitors

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    本論文闡述一個操作在1.1伏特傳輸速度為3.2Gb/s的DDR4 I/O介面傳輸電路,並以聯電90-nm CMOS製程製作。在此晶片中包含了傳輸器以及接收器電路,並加入了多組的去耦合電容以及傳輸器電路,用來探討電源完整性的議題。另外在文中也會考慮此傳輸接收器在不同的情況下所產生的眼圖及傳遞延遲時間,討論電路的信號完整性。於在本文中有探討關於不同製程、電壓、溫度的影響下且用不同的模型,其中包含晶片、晶片加上封裝、晶片加上封裝及電路板的模型所模擬出來的結果,發現在不同製程、電壓、溫度下電路的效能雖然會有影響,但其影響皆沒有我們加入了封裝及電路板的模型進行模擬後的差異來的大,由此可知在高速電路下封裝及電路板模型建立的重要性,因此在此高速電路下我們也針對了板子的特性進行了模型的建立來進行模擬,並在最後比較我們量測及模擬的結果。This thesis presents a DDR4 I/O interface circuits operated at 1.1V and data rate is 3.2Gb/s. It is produced by standard UMC 90-nm CMOS process. In this chip, the transmitter and receiver circuits are included. To discuss the power integrity issue, we add many decoupling capacitors and transmitter circuits. In addition, we also consider transceiver’s eye-diagram and propagation delay time in different condition and discuss the signal integrity of this circuit.n this thesis, the variation of process, voltage and temperature with different model is discussed. It is included chip, chip with package and chip with package and board model which are simulated. And the result shows that although the performance is affected by the variation of process, voltage and temperature. But the effect by PVT is not more critical than we add the package and board model. Due to this reason, it is important to establish the package and board model in our simulation. Therefore, we also establish the board model which we measured and use it into our simulation. At the end, we compare with the result of our measurement and simulation.致謝.......................................................I要.....................................................IIIbstract..................................................IVable of Contents..........................................Vist of Figures..........................................VIIist of Tables.............................................Xhapter 1 Introduction.....................................1.1 Motivation.............................................1.2 Thesis organization....................................3hapter 2 Architecture of Transceiver......................5.1 Introduction...........................................5.2 Voltage mode transceiver architectures.................5.2.1 Low swing transceiver................................5.2.2 AC coupled transceiver...............................6.2.3 Bidirectional transceiver............................8.2.4 Multi-Level bidirectional transceiver................9.3 Current mode transceiver architectures................10.3.1 LVDS transceiver....................................10.3.2 Single ended transceiver............................12.3.3 Bidirectional transceiver...........................14.3.4 Multi-Level bidirectional transceiver...............15.3.5 Current sensing transceiver.........................15hapter 3 Circuit Implementation..........................17.1 Introduction..........................................17.2 Architecture..........................................17.2.1 I/O circuits........................................17.2.2 RCV.................................................18.2.3 CMFB................................................19.2.4 OCD.................................................20.2.5 Level shift.........................................21.2.6 Edge alignment......................................21.2.7 Slew rate control...................................22.2.8 Output impedance control............................26.2.9 Output driver and ODT...............................27hapter 4 Chip-Package-Board Model with PVT Variation.....30.1 Introduction..........................................30.2 Simulation setup......................................30.3 Simulation result.....................................34.3.1 Number of OCDs and decoupling capacitors............34.3.2 PVT.................................................37.3.3 Parameters of package and board models..............40hapter 5 Measurement Result and Simulation Result with Board Model Established...................................43.1 Introduction..........................................43.2 PCB design............................................43.3 Board model setup.....................................46.4 Test setup............................................51.5 Floor plan and layout considerations..................53.6 Simulation and Experiment results.....................56.6.1 Eye-diagram of OCD and RCV..........................56.6.1.1 OCD...............................................56.6.1.2 RCV...............................................58.6.2 Different number of OCD.............................62.6.3 Different number of decoupling capacitors...........68.6.4 Power line noise....................................73.6.4.1 Power line noise analysis.........................76.7 Sources of the performance-degradation................80.8 Summary...............................................83hapter 6 Conclusions.....................................84ibliography..............................................8

    Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis

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    The present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed

    Variations on the Author

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    “Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship

    Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis

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    We provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis

    Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts

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    We conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more sophisticated methods
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