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    Nonlinear Growth in a Long-run Perspective

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    This study analyses the pattern of long-run growth of a cross-section of countries, adopting the distribution dynamics approach. The relationship between growth rates and income levels appears first increasing and then decreasing, indicating the existence of different growth regimes

    Productivity Polarization and Sectoral Dynamics in European Regions

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    We show that the distribution dynamics of productivity in European regions displays polarization with a nonlinear growth path. We investigate the factors explaining this behavior focusing in particular on sectoral composition. The β-convegence analysis reveals that initial shares of Manufacturing and Other Market Services have a nonlinear impact on growth, while spatial effects are not statistically significant. By decomposing the dynamics of aggregate productivity in terms of sectoral dynamics, we show that productivity in Manufacturing, Non Market Services, and Other Market Services does not converge, for the complex interaction of technological spillovers and specialization effects

    An empirical analysis of growth volatility: A Markov chain approach

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    This paper studies the determinants of growth rate volatility, focusing on the effect of level of GDP, structural change and the size of economy. First we provide a graphical analysis based on nonparametric techniques, then a quantitative analysis which follows the distribution dynamics approach. Growth volatility appears to (i) decrease with per capita GDP, (ii) increase with the share of the agricultural sector on GDP and, (iii) decrease with the size of the economy, measured by a combination of total GDP and trade openness. However, we show that the explanatory power of per capita GDP tends to vanish when we control for the size of the economy. © 2005 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

    Nonlinear Economic Growth: Some Theory and Cross-Country Evidence

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    This paper aims to test the existence of different growth regimes, that is of different relationships between growth rate and income level. We propose a simple nonlinear growth model and test its empirical implications by estimating Markov transition matrices and stochastic kernels. We show that growth is indeed nonlinear: a first phase of slow or zero growth is followed by a take-off and, finally, by a phase of deceleration. We discuss the relevance of these results with respect to the issue of convergence and reversibility of development, in the light of models of structural change and technological diffusion
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