1,720,966 research outputs found
SCORING ALTERNATIVE FORECAST DISTRIBUTIONS: COMPLETING THE KULLBACK DISTANCE COMPLEX
Full text linkWe develop two surprising new results regarding the use of proper scoring rules for evaluating the predictive quality of two alternative sequential forecast distributions. Both of the proponents prefer to be awarded a score derived from the other's distribution rather than a score awarded on the basis of their own. A Pareto optimal exchange of their scoring outcomes provides the basis for a comparison of forecast quality that is preferred by both forecasters, and also evades a feature of arbitrariness inherent in using the forecasters' own achieved scores. The well-known Kullback divergence, used as a measure of information, is evaluated via the entropies in the two forecast distributions and the two cross-entropies between them. We show that Kullback's symmetric measure needs to be appended by three component measures if it is to characterise completely the information content of the two asserted probability forecasts. Two of these do not involve entropies at all. The resulting "Kullback complex" supported by the 4-dimensional measure is isomorphic to an equivalent vector measure generated by the forecasters' expectations of their scores, each for one's own score and for the other's score. We foreshadow the results of a sophisticated application of the Pareto relative scoring procedure for actual sequentional observations, and we propose a standard format for evaluatio
Predictive distributions that mimic frequencies over a restricted subdomain
Full text linkA predictive distribution over a sequence of N+1 events is said to be “frequency mimicking” whenever the probability for the final event conditioned on the outcome of the first N events equals the relative frequency of successes among them. Exchangeable distributions that exhibit this feature universally are known to have several annoying concomitant properties. We motivate frequency mimicking assertions over a limited subdomain in practical problems of finite inference, and we identify their computable coherent implications. We provide some examples using reference distributions, and we introduce computational software to generate any complete specification desired. Theorems on reduction and extendability of frequency mimicking assertions delineate the extent of the usefulness of such distributions
A General Theory of Conditional Prevision and the Problem fo the State-Dependent Preferences
No full text1 online resource (PDF, 23 pages)Lad, Frank; Dickey, James M.. (1989). A General Theory of Conditional Prevision and the Problem fo the State-Dependent Preferences. Retrieved from the University Digital Conservancy, https://hdl.handle.net/11299/199548
Combining Experts’ Probabilities via the Product of Odds
No full textWe resolve a useful formulation of the question how a statistician can coherently incorporate the information in a consulted expert’s probability assessment for an event into his/her own posterior probability assertion. Using a framework that recognises the total information available as composed of units available only to each of them along with units available to both, we show that: a sufficient statistic for the all the information available to both the expert and the statistician is the product of their odds ratios in favour of the event; the geometric mean of their two probabilities specifies a contour of pairs of assertions in the unit-square that yield the same posterior probability; the information-combining function is parameterised by an unknown probability for the event conditioned only on the unspecified information that is common to both the statistician and the expert; and that an assessable mixing distribution over this unspecified probability allows an integrable mixture distribution to represent a computable posterior probability. The exact results allow the identification of the subclass of coherent probabilities that are externally Bayesian operators. This subclass is equivalent to that of probabilities that honour the principles of uniformity and compromise
The Duality of Entropy/Extropy, and Completion of the Kullback Information Complex
Full text linkThe refinement axiom for entropy has been provocative in providing foundations of information theory, recognised as thoughtworthy in the writings of both Shannon and Jaynes. A resolution to their concerns has been provided recently by the discovery that the entropy measure of a probability distribution has a dual measure, a complementary companion designated as “extropy”. We report here the main results that identify this fact, specifying the dual equations and exhibiting some of their structure. The duality extends beyond a simple assessment of entropy, to the formulation of relative entropy and the Kullback symmetric distance between two forecasting distributions. This is defined by the sum of a pair of directed divergences. Examining the defining equation, we notice that this symmetric measure can be generated by two other explicable pairs of functions as well, neither of which is a Bregman divergence. The Kullback information complex is constituted by the symmetric measure of entropy/extropy along with one of each of these three function pairs. It is intimately related to the total logarithmic score of two distinct forecasting distributions for a quantity under consideration, this being a complete proper score. The information complex is isomorphic to the expectations that the two forecasting distributions assess for their achieved scores, each for its own score and for the score achieved by the other. Analysis of the scoring problem exposes a Pareto optimal exchange of the forecasters’ scores that both are willing to engage. Both would support its evaluation for assessing the relative quality of the information they provide regarding the observation of an unknown quantity of interest. We present our results without proofs, as these appear in source articles that are referenced. The focus here is on their content, unhindered. The mathematical syntax of probability we employ relies upon the operational subjective constructions of Bruno de Finetti
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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