305,981 research outputs found
Distinguishing trends and shifts from memory in climate data
No full textThe detection of climate change and its attribution to the corresponding underlying processes is challenging because signals such as trends and shifts are superposed on variability arising from the memory within the climate system. Statistical methods used to characterize change in time series must be flexible enough to distinguish these components. Here we propose an approach tailored to distinguish these different modes of change by fitting a series of models and selecting the most suitable one according to an information criterion. The models involve combinations of a constant mean or a trend superposed to a background of white noise with or without autocorrelation to characterize the memory, and are able to detect multiple changepoints in each model configuration. Through a simulation study on synthetic time series, the approach is shown to be effective in distinguishing abrupt changes from trends and memory by identifying the true number and timing of abrupt changes when they are present. Furthermore, the proposed method is better performing than two commonly used approaches for the detection of abrupt changes in climate time series. Using this approach, the so-called hiatus in recent global mean surface warming fails to be detected as a shift in the rate of temperature rise but is instead consistent with steady increase since the 1960s/1970s. Our method also supports the hypothesis that the Pacific decadal oscillation behaves as a short-memory process rather than forced mean shifts as previously suggested. These examples demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed approach for change detection and for avoiding the most pervasive types of mistake in the detection of climate change. © 2018 American Meteorological Society
'I know <i>my</i> economy’: a political ethnography of how everyday actors understand ‘the economy'
No full textThis thesis is a political interpretivist ethnographic study of everyday actors’ understanding of the term ‘the economy’. Political scholars have neglected this subject despite its central relevance; often treating the economy as if it is an uncontested concept. I conducted fieldwork with sixty residents from two contrasting districts in a city on the south coast of England between 2016 and 2017. When people are asked to define ‘the economy’, answers are often thin, along the lines of ‘to do with money’, but using methods like participant observation, semi-structured interviews and focus groups reveals fuller and more nuanced understanding.The thesis suggests that the dominant pattern in how everyday actors’ understandings of the economy vary is based on their economic circumstances. High income participants, regardless of their political beliefs, understand the economy to be an umbrella for potentially benign forces. Their distrust of economic expertise is growing but not deep-rooted. In contrast, low income participants, regardless of their political beliefs and despite expressing deep economic concerns, contest the official discourse on the economy. Most low income participants understand ‘the economy’ to be a rigged system in which wealthy elites, including politicians and economic experts, ‘write the rules’. They are three times less likely to use the term ‘the economy’ than higher income participants and less likely to label their own political behaviour in relation to recent political events as ‘economic’, even when their wider reasoning has been about issues that would usually be interpreted as economic in analyses of political behaviour. The thesis reveals that both high and low income participants entwine their moral and economic beliefs, which raises questions for how we as political scientists categorise what is economic and non-economic and interpret trends in current political behaviour
Athenian instability during the Peloponnesian war : a survey of Aristophanes and Thucydides
No full textGoing Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
No full textThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
No full textWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
Author, publisher and bookseller : a tripartite synergy in Nigerian book industry
No full textThis work is about the roles of Author, Publisher and Bookseller in Book development in
Nigeria. The paper started by delving into the history of Book Publishing in Nigeria after
which it proceeded by defining who an author, a publisher, and a bookseller is and
expatiated on the indispensable roles of these key actors in Nigerian Book Industry and in
the emerging Information Society. Furthermore, the various constraints to book
development were identified while the paper advised on how the Book Industry can be
further promoted in Nigeria. However, the paper concluded and made recommendations
on how the Book sector can help in enhancing scholarship in the country
p53 is upregulated in Alzheimer's disease and induces tau phosphorylation in HEK293a cells
No full textp53 and tau are both associated with neurodegenerative disorders. Here, we show by Western blotting that p53 is upregulated approximately 2-fold in the superior temporal gyrus of Alzheimer's patients compared to healthy elderly control subjects. Moreover, p53 was found to induce phosphorylation of human 2N4R tau at the tau-1/AT8 epitope in HEK293a cells. Confocal microscopy revealed that tau and p53 were spatially separated intracellularly. Tau was found in the cytoskeletal compartment, whilst p53 was located in the nucleus, indicating that the effects of p53 on tau phosphorylation are indirect. Collectively, these findings have ramifications for neuronal death associated with Alzheimer's disease and other tauopathies. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved
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