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Barriers and drivers for the integration of electric mobility and renewable energies in Lithuania :
No full textModellierung zukünftige Bevölkerungshitzevulnerabilität in Großere Hamburg
No full textHitzewellen sind für die meisten durch Naturkatastrophen hervorgerufenen Personenschäden in den westlichen (Post-)Industriegesellschaften verantwortlich. Infolge der zu erwartenden Klimaerwärmung, aber auch aufgrund der alternden Gesellschaft sowie der zunehmenden Urbanisierung, ist davon auszugehen dass die auf Hitzestress zurückzuführende Mortalität in Zukunft noch weiter ansteigen wird. Um die zukünftige Vulnerabilität der Bevölkerung gegenüber Hitzewellen zu senken, sind für Entscheidungsträger in Planung und Politik Erkenntnisse über die räumliche Verteilung von Hitzeeinwirkung und die besonders hitzeanfällige Bevölkerung von hoher Bedeutung. Bedauerlicher Weise wird die zukünftige Bevölkerungsverteilung und die Stadtlandschaft bei den aktuell verfügbaren Abschätzungen des Klimawandels noch nicht hinreichend berücksichtigt. Mit der vorliegenden Studie wird ein innovativer Ansatz verfolgt, die zukünftige Situation in der Metropolregion Hamburg (2050) auf Grundlage des Proxy-Parameters der „Urban Vulnerability Climate Zones” (UVCZ) zu modellieren.
Beim UVCZ-Ansatz handelt es sich um eine räumliche Klassifikation städtischer Areale auf der Grundlage der Differenzierung von Landschaft, Lokalklima sowie der Prognose zukünftiger Wohnbevölkerung. Die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen über die zukünftige Wohnbevölkerung wurden auf Basis der gegenwärtigen räumlich ungleichen Verteilung von Bevölkerungsgruppen verschiedenen Alters, Einkommen und Wohndichten in den verschiedenen UVCZ-Klassen getroffen und getestet. Hierdurch eröffnet sich die Möglichkeit, die zukünftige Stadtstruktur bzw. urbane Landnutzung auf Grundlage eines auf zellulären Automaten basierenden Verfahrens zu simulieren, wobei von einem zukünftigen Klimaszenario (MPI RCP 4.5), einer stabilen sozio-ökonomischen Weiterentwicklung sowie vier unterschiedlichen räumlichen Entwicklungsszenarien ausgegangen wurde (a) Weiter so wie bisher, b) Konzentration der Stadtentwicklung auf eine starke Innenentwicklung, c) Dezentrale Konzentration auf suburbane Zentren im Umland sowie d) Unkontrollierte Suburbanisierung). Dabei wurden sowohl absolute, als auch relative Vulnerabilitätsprognosen auf Basis eines Indexverfahrens angestellt. Obgleich eine Bevölkerungszunahme auch eine Folgewirkung für die modellierten Stadtentwicklungsszenarien erkennen lässt, ist eine räumliche Konzentration der zukünftigen Stadtentwicklung auf eine starke Innenentwicklung die vorteilhafteste Strategie, wenn die relative Vulnerabilität der Bevölkerung möglichst auf einem niedrigen Niveau bleiben soll. Die moderateste Zunahme an absoluter Vulnerabilität ergibt sich mit dem „Weiter so wie bisher“-Stadtentwicklungsszenario.
Unabhängig vom betrachteten Stadtentwicklungsszenario werden die höchsten Vulnerabilitäts-Werte mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit in den östlichen Teile der Kernstadt Hamburg auftreten, vor allem aufgrund des dort höherer Konzentration des Alters der Wohnbevölkerung sowie der dortigen Sozialstruktur der Bewohnerschaft. In den Außenbezirken der Metropolregion Hamburg ist eine Zunahme der Vulnerabilität vor allem in den östlichen und südlichen Arealen zu erwarten – insbesondere aufgrund der höheren durchschnittlichen Temperaturminima, den Maximaltemperaturen sowie der weniger flächendeckend ausgebauten Gesundheitsinfrastruktur. Weitergehende Analysen zeigen, dass basierend auf extremen Annahmen der zukünftigen globalen Klimaentwicklung bis zu 225% erhöhte Vulnerabilitäten erzeugen würden, während die Zunahme der älteren Bevölkerung um eine halbe Standardabweichung eine Zunahme der durchschnittlichen Vulnerabilität um nur 18% bewirkt. Obgleich die Modellierung der zukünftigen Vulnerabilität mit einer hohen Unsicherheit behaftet ist, eröffnet der in dieser Arbeit entwickelte Ansatz zur Modellierung zukünftiger Zustände mithilfe zellulärer Automaten neue Möglichkeiten für Entscheidungsträger, verschiedene Entwicklungsszenarien auf kleinräumiger Ebene zu simulieren. Das vorgestellte Vorgehen kann auf andere urbane Regionen weltweit übertragen werden.Heat waves are responsible for most of the human losses, inflicted by natural disasters, in post-industrial countries. Due to rising temperatures, aging population and increasing urbanization, the heat-related mortality in the future might be even higher. In order to lower future population’s vulnerability to heat waves, the decision makers need to know where the highest heat impact will occur and the heat-vulnerable people will live. Unfortunately, current future vulnerability to climate change assessments does not fully address the future population and urban landscape. This study takes an innovative approach to model future conditions (2050) in Greater Hamburg, Germany, via the proxy parameter, the Urban Vulnerability Climate Zones (UVCZ).
UVCZ is a spatial classification of the urban areas by landscape, climate and, based on verified hypothesis – population. The hypothesis has been verified through statistical analysis which showed uneven distribution of population groups with different age, income and density among the potential housing UVCZ classes. This enabled to model future conditions, through four future UVCZ spatial allocations, simulated by cellular automata-based future land use modeling software under one climate (MPI RCP 4.5), one socio-economic and four urban development (business as usual, concentration, de-central concentration and uncontrolled urban sprawl) scenarios. Future conditions were composed into relative and absolute vulnerability indices. Although the low projected population increase would cause limited effect on extreme urban development scenarios, the concentration scenario would be the most favorable in case of lowest average relative vulnerability while the lowest absolute vulnerability would be typical for the business as usual scenario.
In most of the cases, the eastern areas of Hamburg City would experience the highest relative vulnerability, mainly due to higher concentration of older population and welfare recipients. Along the outskirts of Greater Hamburg, the eastern and southern areas would also be vulnerable, because of higher monthly average minimum, maximum temperatures and the long distance to the closest healthcare facility. The sensitivity analysis has shown that climate data from other global climate model would cause 225% higher average vulnerability, meanwhile the increase of older population by 0,5 of standard deviation would cause higher average vulnerability by only 18%. Although the modeling of future vulnerability has high uncertainty, this new approach to model future conditions, operated by cellular automata, opens new doors for decision makers to pilot multiple scenarios at the building block scale. The provided framework can be used in other urban areas around the world
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
Author-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.
No full textAuthor-wise bibliometric analysis based on entropy.</p
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