197,693 research outputs found
Euroland : recovery is under way
No full textThe economy in the euro area has turned around. While GDP stagnated during the second half of 2001, there are more and more signs that output will increase considerably in the first half of this year. All in all, the slowdown has not been very pronounced. One indication for this is that in 2001, the year of the downturn, unemployment remained more or less constant. The factors which led to the cyclical slowdown have turned around and now stimulate economic activity: Monetary policy has become expansionary, oil prices have dropped substantially, and there is a recovery in the rest of the world. Key interest rates in the euro area have remained unchanged since early November 2001. Real short-term interest rates are well below their historical average. Therefore, economic activity is stimulated by monetary policy. Until spring 2003, the ECB will raise key interest rates to the neutral level which should prevail when the output gap is closed and when inflation is at its target; this neutral rate lies between 4 and 4.5 percent. Money growth has exceeded the reference value of 4.5 percent for M3 considerably for several months. This increase implies that the velocity of money shows an unusually large deviation from its trend. According to the judgment of the ECB, the demand for M3 has become unstable only in the short run due to special factors. If this judgment is correct, money growth will slow down markedly in the coming months. As a consequence, velocity will return to its trend without an increase in inflation. This implies, however, that the expected slowdown of money growth should not be used as an indication that monetary policy is tight and needs to be loosened because the deceleration of M3 growth is nothing but a normalization. Fiscal consolidation has been insufficient in several countries. Governments in Germany, France, Italy and Portugal should begin to pursue a strict consolidation course. Empirical evidence shows that countries that undertook credible consolidation strategies based on expenditure cuts did not experience cyclical downturns. If the governments of these countries were to dampen the increase in government spending, there would be room for a reduction of the tax burden and of budget deficits. This would improve the growth perspectives for the medium term. In 2001, wages in the euro area increased somewhat faster than in the previous years largely reflecting the improvement of the labor market situation due to the strong upswing. Also, employees tried to limit the reduction of real wages, which was the consequence of the higher than expected rate of inflation. In our forecast, wage increases will average about 3 percent both this year and next. This implies that there is room for an increase in employment although it is smaller than at the end of the 1990s. Nevertheless, the development of wages does not imply a risk for price level stability. The leading indicators suggest that the European economy has reached its trough in the first quarter of 2002 and that the upswing is imminent. From spring on, real GDP will increase at a faster pace than potential output. On average, it will increase by 1.7 percent in 2002. In the course of the coming year, the increase in production will gradually slow down. The upswing in the world economy will probably pass its peak in the first half of next year implying a less dynamic external demand for European products. Domestic demand will also lose some momentum. This is due to the fact that monetary policy will return to a neutral course and that the effects of the preceding easing will gradually fade. We expect real GDP to increase by 3 percent in 2003. --
Length Normalization in XML Retrieval
No full textThe full paper appeared as: J. Kamps, M. de Rijke, and B. Sigurbj¨ornsson,
“Length Normalization in XML Retrieval,” In: Proceedings 27th Annual
International ACM SIGIR Conference (SIGIR 2004), pages 80-87, 2004.
Data supporting: Scuffing mechanisms of EN-GJS 400-15 spheroidal graphite cast iron against a 52100 bearing steel in a PAO lubricated reciprocating contact
No full textThis data supports the following publication (see below for paper abstract):
Kamps, T.J., Walker, J.C., Wood, R.J., Lee, P.M. and Plint, A.G. (2017) Scuffing mechanisms of EN-GJS 400-15 spheroidal graphite cast iron against a 52100 bearing steel in a PAO lubricated reciprocating contact. Wear, 1-16
Scuffing of the automotive piston ring on liner contact is likely to increase due to engine downsizing and the use of low viscosity engine oils to achieve greater fuel efficiency. This work investigated the scuffing mechanism of EN-GJS 400-15 spheroidal graphite cast iron caused by reciprocating sliding of a 52100 roller bearing element lubricated with PAO base oil.
The contact was conditioned at 100N and 15 Hz over a stroke of 25 mm at 180 oC. Subsequently the load was incremented in 100 N/min steps at 5 minute intervals until severe scuffing occurred, indicated by a rapid rise in the average friction coefficient. High speed friction was used to determine the onset of mild and severe scuffing. Stylus and 3D optical profilometery revealed that mild scuffing produced a smooth surface with small cracks compared to the severe scuffed surface which contained adhesive wear craters of 40 ?m in depth. Focused ion beam cross-sections of the mild scuffed surface and EDS analysis of the microstructure indicated that cracks were initiated by dross inclusions with a similar morphology to flake graphite. The transition to severe scuffing occurred at 700N when crack networks facilitated adhesive transfer of cast iron material to the counter-surface.</span
Euroland: Upswing postponed
No full textThe recovery in Euroland has started at the beginning of this year but it has remained rather moderate. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of less than 1½ percent during the first half of 2002. Capacity utilization has declined further and unemployment continued to go up. While exports have gained some strength, domestic demand has just about stabilized. Against the background of weak economic activity the increase in consumer prices has calmed down considerably. Several factors can be made responsible for the sluggish economic performance. Consumer sentiment was affected by the price increases at the beginning of this year and obviously also by the introduction of the new currency. Profit expectations of firms have not improved sufficiently as it is also reflected in the collapse of stock prices. In addition, export expectations have deteriorated recently because of the uncertainty about the US economy and the appreciation of the euro. In the light of the recent turbulences on stock markets and the increased uncertainty about the economic outlook in the euro area, the ECB will probably not raise interest rates this year as was expected a few months ago. In fact, there is a discussion whether the ECB would — or even should — lower interest rates. According to both pillars of its monetary policy strategy, an easing of monetary policy cannot be justified. Money growth still exceeds the reference value by a wide margin. Although our analysis indicates that money demand has become unstable recently, there is a risk that there is some excess liquidity in the euro area and that the high money growth cannot be explained by special factors alone. The perspectives for price level stability have also not improved considerably. The budget deficit in Portugal and also in Germany will probably exceed 3 percent of GDP this year; in Italy and France it is approaching this level. The European Commission has started the excessive deficit procedure for Portugal and may do the same for Germany soon. However, it is not certain there will be the necessary majority in the ECOFIN Council for the decision whether an excessive deficit exists. One cannot exclude that Italy and France have an interest to block such a decision because they also have problems of meeting the obligations of the Stability and Growth Pact. So it is possible that the finance ministers of these four countries which together have 35 votes in the Council will prevent the decision about the excessive deficit procedure. The coming months will show whether the Pact really has teeth. We are strongly in favor of a strict application of the Stability and Growth Pact. The recent deterioration of consumer and business sentiment does not, in our view, imply that a renewed downturn is imminent. After a relatively sluggish growth in the rest of this year, economic activity will pick up considerably in the course of 2003 and real GDP will rise faster than potential output. For the year as a whole, real GDP will increase by 2.3 percent, after 0.8 percent in 2002. The labor market situation will improve slowly in the course of next year. Inflation will remain moderate also because the ECB will tighten monetary policy gradually; in addition we expect that wages will rise only moderately. The consumer price index will increase by 1.6 in 2003, after 2.1 this year. --
Welcome Session with Awards and Readings
No full textWelcome remarks by Richard Howorth, Owner of Square Books, and Dr. Ivo Kamps, chair of the Department of English. William Faulkner Society Fellows, Donald M. Kartiganer. Presentation of Eudora Welty Awards in Creative Writing by Ted Ownby. Screening of The Story of Temple Drake, the film adaptation of Faulkner\u27s Sanctuary
Der Blick ins Auge: Sezieren eines Schweineauges im diversitätssensiblen Biologieunterricht
No full textKamps L-M, Langer LE, Basten M, Großmann N. Der Blick ins Auge: Sezieren eines Schweineauges im diversitätssensiblen Biologieunterricht. MNU-Journal. 2024;77(4):309-313
Cumulative entropies and sums of moments of order statistics
No full textGeneralized weighted cumulative residual entropies and generalized weighted cumulative entropies are represented by means of weighted sums of moments of upper and lower order statistics, respectively. A variety of examples is shown by specifying the weight function
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