1,720,959 research outputs found
FIRM BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION USING SOFT TECHNIQUES OF CALCULATION (Prognozowanie upadlosci firm przy wykorzystaniu miekkich technik obliczeniowych)
No full textThis article is about the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in Poland. In the article the author compares seven methods of artificial intelligence of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. It is first attempt of comparative analysis of such wide variety of artificial intelligence methods in predicting bankruptcy in Poland. In the conducted research the author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. The author's developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method
FORECASTING BUSINESS BANKRUPTCY WITH THE USE OF SOFT COMPUTING
No full textThis article is about the prediction of bankruptcy of companies in Poland. In the article author compares seven methods of artificial intelligence of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. It is first attempt of comparative analysis of such wide variety of artificial intelligence methods in predicting bankruptcy in Poland. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method
Challenge and Research Trends of Forecasting Financial Energy
No full textThe measurement of economic entities' financial strength is one of the significant challenges of modern economic and financial research. With increased financial globalization, faster economic changes, and a new dimension of increased financial risk in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis due to its biological nature and broad scope, affecting the whole world simultaneously, the issue of forecasting financial energy is gaining much more importance currently. This Special Issue entitled „Challenge and Research Trends of Forecasting Financial Energy” is devoted to the broad research area of forecasting financial energy of economic units such as enterprises, households, local governments, etc. Conceptualizing the term of financial energy, we aim to capture a wide spectrum of predicting and evaluating the financial standing, including various aspects of corporate finance, personal finance, and public finance
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Assessment of trajectories of non-bankrupt and bankrupt enterprises
Get PDFPurpose: The aim of this study is to show how long-term trajectories of enterprises can be used to increase the forecasting horizon of bankruptcy prediction models. Design/Methodology/Approach: The author used seven popular forecasting models (two from Europe, two from Asia, two from North America and one from Latin America). These models (five multivariate discriminant analysis models and two logit models) were used to develop 17-year trajectories separately for non-bankrupt enterprises and those at risk of financial failure. Findings: Based on a sample of 200 enterprises, the author evaluated the differences between non-bankrupt and bankrupt firms in development during 17 years of activity. The long-term usability of the models was demonstrated. To date, these models have been used only to forecast bankruptcy risk in the short term (1–3 years’ prediction horizon). This paper demonstrates that these models can also serve to evaluate long-term growth and to identify the first symptoms of future bankruptcy risk many years before it actually occurs. Practical Implications: It was proven and specified that long-term developmental differences exist between non-threatened and future insolvent companies. These studies proved that the process of going bankrupt is very long, perhaps even longer than the literature has previously demonstrated. Originality/value: This study is one of the first attempts in the literature globally to assess such long-term enterprise trajectories. Additionally by implementing a dynamic approach to the financial ratios in the risk-forecasting model let visualize the changes occurring in the company.peer-reviewe
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Evaluation of the factors influencing business bankruptcy risk in Poland
No full textAbstract
This article is devoted to the issue of assessing the causes of business failure. The presented studies answer two research questions – what are the causes of corporate bankruptcies in Poland and how to more effectively predict the scale of bankruptcies in the country. The author has conducted a study to analyze the specific endogenous and exogenous causes of company bankruptcy depending on the type of the bankruptcy with consideration of the three different phases of the crisis in enterprises. The research is based on 185 companies (60 bankrupt and 125 non-bankrupt firms) listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange. For each company the author has calculated 14 different financial ratios for each of the six years before classifying the firm as bankrupt or non-bankrupt.
The author has also done research to identify specific macroeconomic variables affecting the bankruptcy process of the companies in Poland. This provided specification of the manner and how strongly the various factors affect the quantity and intensity of bankruptcy applications in this region of Europe. Additionally, with the use of selected macroeconomic variables the author programmed a fuzzy logic model to forecast the general intensity of bankruptcies in Poland. This study is the first attempt at using fuzzy logic to predict the risk of bankruptcy in a macro aspect. The results demonstrate the great potential of this method. The received effectiveness of the fuzzy logic model is at the level of 84%.</jats:p
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
- …
