21 research outputs found
Educational attainment alone can correctly classify over 90% of local authorities by voting outcome in the EU referendum
No full textWhile it is well established that educational attainment is highly correlated with Brexit voting patterns, the predictive capacity of education has attracted less attention. Using full-sample and split-sample exercises, Rob Calvert Jump and Jo Michell demonstrate that educational attainment alone can correctly classify over 90% of local authorities by voting outcome in the 2016 referendum to leave the EU, depending on the prediction model and classification method used. This illustrates the importance of education as a key factor in the geography of Brexit
Educational attainment and the Brexit vote
No full textThe Brexit vote is the most significant political event in recent British history. We present bivariate choropleth maps comparing the Leave vote share with age-adjusted secondary educational attainment. This provides an immediate visual representation of the spatial and bivariate correlations between these variables, as well as their geographical distribution. Only 12 of the 85 local authorities that voted Remain had lower than expected age-adjusted educational attainment; only 10 of the 95 local authorities in which the Leave vote share exceeded 60% had higher than expected age-adjusted educational attainment. While the effectiveness of choropleth maps for exploring the spatial characteristics of bivariate relationships has been discussed by a number of authors, our technique of using borders to highlight a threshold value appears to be under-utilised
Dollar liquidity, financial vulnerability and monetary sovereignty
No full textPeriods of dollar-led global monetary tightening generate negative effects in many lower and middle-income countries. The tightening cycle which commenced in early 2022 has exacerbated the financial dislocation experienced by countries including Zambia, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. How can policy makers protect their economies from such external shocks and foster a stable developmental environment? Some recent contributions argue that the capacity of countries to insulate domestic policy from global financial conditions depends upon 'monetary sovereignty'. We argue that this misrepresents the constraints to macroeconomic policy and development strategy. Monetary sovereignty, if narrowly defined, is necessary but not sufficient for domestic policy autonomy. Stronger definitions impose unrealistic requirements on debt denomination and exchange rate regimes. We argue that, outside of currency unions, the main policy constraints for developing countries are limited domestic productive capacity and integration into global trade and financial networks rather than monetary arrangements. We illustrate our discussion with an empirical examination of three recent episodes of global illiquidity and/or policy tightening: the 2013 taper tantrum, the March 2020 liquidity shock, and the 2022 dollar tightening cycle. We find evidence that monetary sovereignty does not insulate a country from episodes of dollar illiquidity. While 'fundamentals' such as current account deficits and foreign exchange reserves provide limited power in identifying vulnerability, measures of financial depth and activity do appear related to vulnerability
Financial and legal barriers to the creation and operation of a British national investment bank
No full textThere is growing momentum in the UK for the creation of a British National Investment Bank (NIB) that would bring the UK into line with other large advanced economies, all of which have NIBs of varying forms and sizes. This is due to both the UK’s poor track record in providing patient finance (Mazzucato and Macfarlane, 2017) and because of the threat of Brexit which would involve the European Investment Bank (EIB) winding down its significant UK lending activity (House of Lords, 2019).
The Labour Party introduced plans to create a NIB in its 2017 manifesto, with a supporting document entitled, “A National Investment Bank for Britain: Putting Dynamism into our Industrial Strategy” laying out some of the key characteristics of the policy (Labour Party, 2017). This policy note examines some of the financial and legal barriers to the creation of a NIB along the lines proposed by Labour
Financial and legal barriers to the creation and operation of a British national investment bank
No full textThere is growing momentum in the UK for the creation of a British National Investment bank (NIB) that would bring the UK into line with other large advanced economies, all of which have NIBs of varying forms and sizes. This is due to both the UK’s poor track record in providing patient finance (Mazzucato and Macfarlane, 2017) and because of the threat of Brexit which would involve the European Investment Bank (EIB) winding down its significant UK lending activity (House of Lords, 2019). The Labour Party introduced plans to create a NIB in its 2017 manifesto, with a supporting document entitled, “A National Investment Bank for Britain: Putting Dynamism into our Industrial Strategy” laying out some of the key characteristics of the policy (Labour Party, 2017). This policy note examines some of the financial and legal barriers to the creation of a NIB along the lines proposed by Labour
Building blocks of a heterodox business cycle theory
No full textA key characteristic of heterodox theories of the business cycle is their focus on endogenous business cycle mechanisms. This paper provides an overview and comparison of four models in heterodox business cycle theory: multiplier-accelerator models, Goodwin models, Minskyan debt-cycle models, and momentum trader models. A representative model from each theory is formulated as a two-dimensional predator-prey system in continuous time, which allows us to identify the different stabilising and destabilising mechanisms. We argue that the theories are substantially competing, as they posit different mechanisms that explain cycles, but we also argue that these mechanisms are not mutually exclusive. We suggest that heterodox economists work towards a synthesis
Dedicated traffic management system for truck and vehicle platooning on intersections
No full textCongestion is a major problem on the Dutch road networks, which is a widely researched topic. Multiple factors contribute to this increasing congestion, examples of these are increasing traffic demands and inefficient traffic signal control. The focus of this research is on arterial traffic networks consisting of signalized intersections. The effects of two innovations that aim to reduce congestion have been evaluated, which are intelligent traffic signal control using the data of connected vehicles and truck/vehicle platooning. Research has shown promising results in both areas, but there are still some gaps to be filled. Especially in the area of truck/vehicle platooning on intersections and the combination of intelligent intersection control and truck/vehicle platooning. These two innovations have therefore been combined in this study to develop a dedicated traffic management system that leverages vehicle connectivity and platooning capabilities to control the traffic on a signalized intersection. The objective of this study is to determine the traffic flow effects that this system has in mixed traffic conditions. This leads to the following main research question:What dedicated traffic management system can potentially improve the traffic flows on a logistic corridor where truck platoons drive in mixed traffic (consisting of regular and connected vehicles) and what are the traffic flow effects on this corridor when the system is implemented?The effectiveness of this dedicated traffic management has been determined by doing a microsimulation on an existing logistic corridor. This study is commissioned by the Province of Noord-Holland, so the chosen corridor for this is located in Noord-Holland. This corridor is a part of the logistic corridor between the largest flower auction in the world, Royal FloraHolland, and the A4 highway. The used part of the corridor consists of three intersections, from which the intersection between the N201 and Koolhovenlaan has been used to implement the dedicated traffic management system. The currently used signal controller on this intersection is a vehicle-actuated signal controller, which uses measurements done by induction loops to update the signal phase and timings plan. The intersection is also a part of a field experiment where freight traffic is granted priority based on vehicle connectivity…Civil Engineering | Transport and Plannin
Short and medium term financial-real cycles: An empirical assessment
No full textTheories such as Minsky's financial instability hypothesis or New Keynesian financial accelerator models assign a key role to financial factors in business cycle dynamics. We present descriptive statistics and a simple estimation framework to examine the financial-real interaction mechanisms that are at the core of these theories. Specifically, we examine cycle frequencies in seven OECD countries over the period 1970 to 2015, and find that interest rates, business debt, and household debt exhibit cycle lengths of 4-6, 8-11, and 14-26 years, respectively. We then estimate bivariate VAR models which provide evidence for financial-real interaction mechanisms, (i) at high frequencies between interest rates and GDP, and (ii) at low frequencies between business debt and GDP. In contrast, there is no evidence for a cycle mechanism between household debt and GDP
The invisible artist: Arrangers in popular music (1950-2000): Their contribution and techniques
No full textThis thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and was awarded by Brunel University.This thesis is based on the research conducted by the author for the series,
Richard Niles' History of Pop Arranging, seven thirty-minute documentary
programmes for BBC Radio 2, researched, written and presented by the author and
broadcast in 2003. It also draws on interviews conducted by the author (and other
research) between 2002 and 2007 both for the radio series and for this thesis and on
the author's experience as a professional arranger in popular music working with
many of the genre's significant recording artists including Paul McCartney, Ray
Charles, Cher, Tina Turner, Westlife, Tears For Fears, Dusty Springfield, James
Brown, Pet Shop Boys, Kylie Minogue and producers including Trevor Hom, Steve
Lipson, Steve Mac and Steve Anderson.
It will be argued that the role of the arranger in popular music has often been
undervalued and that during a critical period of popular music history (1950-2000)
arrangers played a significant part in the evolution of musical content. This thesis is,
to the best of the author's knowledge, the first time (apart from the above mentioned
documentary) the subject has ever been examined. The arranger is "invisible" because musical arrangers are often un-credited on
record liner notes or in books or articles concerning popular music. A considerable
amount of research has been necessary to determine who wrote many of the
arrangements considered herein. Motown's Berry Gordy purposely kept the names of
musicians and arrangers off the records because he feared others might 'poach' the
trademark 'Motown Sound'. Other record labels considered the job of the arranger to
be reminiscent of an earlier era, diluting the Rock 'n' Roll image of emotion and
spontanaeity they wished to promote. Some producers and recording artists disliked
sharing credit for their work. Motown arranger David Van dePitte told the author that
arranging was "thankless and anonymous - a very service-oriented profession where
others often take credit for what you've done." Arranging has therefore remained an
intrinsically unseen art created by 'invisible' artists. By analyzing many recordings,
revealing the techniques and concepts they have used in their work to create popular
records, arrangers and their art will be made more 'visible'
