251 research outputs found
Creative Assets and the Changing Economy
No full textThis paper evaluates recent claims that art and culture have become more valuable assets in the new economy. Based on conversations with several prominent cultural economists, the author argues that advocates and scholars should be more cautious in their attempts to draw out the implications of the changing economy on culture. Rather than spend time calculating the impact or size of the “creative economy,” the author argues that we should direct our analytical and policy energies toward better understanding how creative work and institutions are changing and what might be done to foster a more robust, creative and diverse cultural life.
A Study of Transgressed Boundaries in The Gate to Women’s Country by Sheri S. Tepper
No full textThis paper endeavours to delineate the gender dynamics and ethical quandaries arising from the repercussions of war and the decisions undertaken to preserve societal norms, as depicted in the 1988 science-fiction novel entitled The Gate to Women’s Country, written by American author Sheri S. Tepper. Serving as a critique, the narrative provides insight into inquiries surrounding the supposed genetic determinants of violence. It interrogates established paradigms pertaining to gender, introducing a society meticulously crafted through scientific design
An experimental and analytical exploration of the effects of manufacturing parameters on ceramic pot filter performance
No full textThesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2013.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 163-165).Ceramic pot filters (CPF) are a promising low-cost option for household water treatment, providing a barrier of protection against-microbiological contaminants for households with or without reliable piped water supplies. The goal of this thesis is to provide CPF manufacturers with tools to increase their ability to reach performance objectives for CPF flow rate, bacteria removal and strength. This is achieved by experimentally determining relationships between these three aspects of performance and three manufacturing values: percentage rice husk, rice husk size and wall thickness. These relationships are used to run a series of optimizations that result in design recommendations including the recommendation to increase wall thickness to improve bacteria removal and to tightly control rice husk size to maintain consistent flow rates. In addition to the experimental relationships, this author seeks a theoretical explanation of filter performance. Through this process, the author determined that hydraulic head can be increased without decreasing bacteria removal and that incomplete combustion should not be of primary concern to manufacturers. While the results in this study are preliminary, the systematic approach to the CPF design shown here can be used in future studies to further analyze and improve the CPF design.by Amelia Tepper Servi.S.M
Determinação dos pontos de recessão do NBER usando machine learning
No full textThe financial crises cause significant challenges due to their profound impact on the economy and the inherent difficulty in predicting such events. Successfully forecasting a financial crisis could offer remarkable advantages, enabling preemptive measures to mitigate its adverse effects. Previous research has highlighted the importance of various indicators in predicting economic downturns, including the inverted term spread, real GDP, and unemployment rates. Additionally, machine learning methods have shown potential in identifying non-linear patterns among these variables, making them valuable in forecasting NBER recessions. In this study, we evaluated several machine learning classification and non-linear regression algorithms such as Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbours, Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Adaptive Boosting, Random Forest, Extra Trees, and Categorical Boosting other than traditional time series models like ARIMA and AR. The best forecast of the NBER recession points from 0 to 12 months ahead was obtained by inputting the best machine learning models9 prediction as one of the exogenous variables of an ARIMA(1,0,1). The forecasts obtained were especially effective between t + 0 and t + 4, with real GDP being the most relevant macroeconomic feature. Additionally, one version of the forecast was better suited to predict market troughs than official NBER recessions. Future research could extend this work by exploring the impact of different types of recessions, developing models tailored to emerging markets, or training models on specific big debt crises, such as using data from the 2008 financial crisis to forecast recessions similar to Japan9s 1990 economic downturn.As crises financeiras representam grandes desafios devido ao seu profundo impacto econômico e à dificuldade de prever esses eventos com antecedência. Prever uma crise financeira com sucesso pode oferecer vantagens consideráveis, permitindo a adoção de medidas preventivas para mitigar seus efeitos. Pesquisas anteriores destacaram a importância de indicadores como a inversão da curva de juros, o PIB real e as taxas de desemprego na previsão de recessões. Além disso, métodos de têm mostrado potencial na identificação de padrões não lineares entre essas variáveis, tornando-os valiosos para prever recessões do NBER. Neste estudo, avaliamos diversos algoritmos de como Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbours, Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Adaptive Boosting, Random Forest, Extra Trees e Categorical Boosting, além de modelos tradicionais como ARIMA e AR. A melhor previsão dos pontos de recessão do NBER de 0 a 12 meses foi obtida ao inserir as previsões dos melhores modelos de como variáveis exógenas em um ARIMA(1,0,1). As previsões mais eficazes entre t + 0 e t + 4, o PIB real o indicador mais relevante. Além disso, uma versão do modelo mostrou-se mais adequada para prever os mínimos de mercado do que as recessões oficiais do NBER. Pesquisas futuras podem explorar o impacto de diferentes recessões, desenvolver modelos para mercados emergentes ou usar dados de crises, como a crise de 2008, para prever recessões semelhantes à recessão do Japão de 1990
Does money matter? An artificial intelligence approach
No full textThis paper provides the most complete evidence to date on the importance of monetary aggregates as a policy tool in an inflation forecasting experiment. Every possible definition of 'money' in the USA is being considered for the full data period (1960 -2006), in addition to two different approaches to constructing the benchmark asset, using the most sophisticated non-linear artificial intelligence techniques available, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolutionary strategies and kernel methods. Three top computer scientists in three top UK universities (Dr Peter Tino at the University of Birmingham, Dr Graham Kendall at the University of Nottingham and Dr Jonathan Tepper at Nottingham Trent University) are competing to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models using their own specialist artificial intelligence techniques. Results will be evaluated using standard forecasting evaluation criteria and compared to forecasts from traditional econometric models produced by Dr Binner. This paper therefore addresses not only the most controversial questions in monetary economics -exactly how to construct monetary aggregates and to what level of aggregation, but also addresses the ever increasing role of artificial intelligence techniques in economics and how these methods can improve upon traditional econometric modelling techniques. Lessons learned from the experiment will have direct relevance for monetary policymakers around the world and econometricians/forecasters alike. Given the multidisciplinary nature of this work, the results will also add value to the existing knowledge of computer scientists in particular and more generally speaking, any scientist using artificial intelligence techniques
Ties than bind and ties that tear: the influence of network centralization and density on shared social identity and performance
No full textTepper School of Business</p
Predictable non-linearities in U.S. inflation
No full textWe expand Nakamura’s (2005) neural network based inflation forecasting experiment to an alternative non-linear model; a Markov switching autoregressive (MS-AR) model. The two non-linear models perform approximately on par and outperform the linear autoregressive model on short forecast horizons of one and two quarters. Furthermore, the MS-AR model is the best performer on longer horizons of three and four quarters
Connectionist natural language parsing
No full textThe key developments of two decades of connectionist parsing are reviewed. Connectionist parsers are assessed according to their ability to learn to represent syntactic structures from examples automatically, without being presented with symbolic grammar rules. This review also considers the extent to which connectionist parsers offer computational models of human sentence processing and provide plausible accounts of psycholinguistic data. In considering these issues, special attention is paid to the level of realism, the nature of the modularity, and the type of processing that is to be found in a wide range of parsers
Automated software quality visualisation using fuzzy logic techniques
No full textIn the past decade there has been a concerted effort by the software industry to improve the quality of its products. This has led to the inception of various techniques with which to control and measure the process involved in software development. Methods like the Capability Maturity Model have introduced processes and strategies that require measurement in the form of software metrics. With the ever increasing number of software metrics being introduced by capability based processes, software development organisations are finding it more difficult to understand and interpret metric scores. This is particularly problematic for senior management and project managers where analysis of the actual data is not feasible. This paper proposes a method with which to visually represent metric scores so that managers can easily see how their organisation is performing relative to quality goals set for each type of metric. Acting primarily as a proof of concept and prototype, we suggest ways in which real customer needs can be translated into a feasible technical solution. The solution itself visualises metric scores in the form of a tree structure and utilises Fuzzy Logic techniques, XGMML, Web Services and the .NET Framework. Future work is proposed to extend the system from the prototype stage and to overcome a problem with the masking of poor scores
Social Cohesion In New Town Dronten
No full textHalfway through the twentieth century, the Netherlands started draining the Zuiderzee in the middle of the country, to create the province Flevoland. Flevoland consists of three parts, the Noordoostpolder, Southern Flevoland and Eastern Flevoland, where among others the town Dronten is located. Nowadays, the municipality of Dronten counts over forty thousand residents, though eighty years ago this piece of land was nothing more than a stretch of seawater. Even before the land of Eastern Flevoland was fully reclaimed, designs for its layout were being made. The first concrete plans of building ‘new town’ Dronten started in 1958 and a few years later the first houses were built on a freshly reclaimed piece of land. In this implemented plan, municipality Dronten consists of only three towns: Dronten, Biddinghuizen and Swifterbant. Initially, however, there were other plans where the municipality of Dronten would consist of multiple small towns, in Dutch called kernen, around the centre Dronten. Due to changes in mobility and experiences of other projects, these plans developed. Creating freshly reclaimed land into a municipality and multiple towns is quite a unique situation. Since this was the case in Flevoland, a new piece of land without any history, people came from all over the country to start a new living environment and community. Starting a new society gives accordingly the opportunity to do things completely different, whether the possibility exist that new residents take old habits and values with them. Therefore it is interesting to gain more insight in how issues such as social cohesion are taken into account by the planning, designing and development of a new municipality and a town such as Dronten. Based on this topic, the following research question for the thesis arises: To what extend is social cohesion recognisable in the spatial planning and urban designs of the period 1950 until the 1980 of municipality and ‘new town’ Dronten? AR2A011Architectural History ThesisArchitecture, Urbanism and Building Science
- …
