1,721,129 research outputs found
International Liquidity and Monetary Control
Full text linkThis paper deals with the relations among international liquidity,the exchange-rate regime and the effectiveness of monetary policy. The first part of the paper contains an empirical study of the demand for international reserves. It is shown that (i) reserve holdings are a stable function of a limited number of economic variables, and(ii) the move togreater flexibility of exchange-rates has not changed drastically the patterns of reserves holdings. The empirical work deals with developed and developing countries and it allows for country-specific and time-specific factors as well as for dynamic adjustments. The second part of the paper deals with the more general issue of the constraints that the openness of the economy imposes on the effectiveness and proper conduct of monetary policy, as well as the dependence of these constraints on the exchange-rate regime. In this context the roles of various exchange-market inter-ventions are discussed. The analysis then explores alternative guidelines for monetary policy where it is argued that the conduct of policy can be improved by paying attention to the relation between exchange rates and interest rates. This relation is then used to interpret the recent evolutionof interest rates. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the role of the International Monetary Fund in the provision of liquidity.
Obstacles to Transforming Centrally-Planned Economies: The Role of Capital Markets
Full text linkThis paper identifies obstacles hindering the transformation of centrally-planned economies (CPEs) into well-functioning market economies. The analysis is motivated by the recent experience with economic transformation and restructuring in Eastern Europe and the U.S.S.R. The economic system in CPEs is highly distorted. Prices do not represent real social costs, incentives systems are absent, losses of unprofitable state-owned enterprises are automatically financed, legislations vital for the functioning of markets are not in place, private ownership and property rights are underdeveloped, bankruptcy laws are absent, markets are missing, shortages prevail and, occasionally, inflation is high. The obstacles identified relate to (i) anticipatory dynamics, (ii) monetary overhang and the budget, and (iii) underdeveloped credit markets. It is demonstrated that these obstacles inhibit the effectiveness of price reform, monetary and credit policies, and trade liberalization. The analysis focuses on various ways to remove the obstacles. In this regard, a special examination is made of the implications of cleaning the balance sheets of enterprises and banks from nonperforming loans, as well as ways to enhance credibility. In the absence of such measures, privatization will be difficult since the necessary information about creditworthiness of firms is lacking. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of sequencing, safety nets. and their associated obstacles.
Causes of Appreciation and Volatility of the Dollar with Comment by Jacob Frenkel
Full text linkIn 1981 real interest rates in the United States increased spectacularly, and the dollar appreciated in real terms by about 20 percent. Since the end of 1981, long-term real interest rates have remained in the range of 5-10 percent, with nominal long rates above short rates. The dollar appreciated further, but more gradually, until early 1985. This paper argues that these movements in real interest rates and the real exchange rate are due to the shift in the high-employment deficit by some $200 billion that was announced in the 1981 budget program. This requires an increase in real interest rates and a real appreciation to generate the sum of excess domestic saving and foreign borrowing to finance it. The argument is a straightforward extension of the idea of "crowding out" at full employment to an open economy.The current situation is not sustainable, however. Eventually international investors will begin to resist further absorption of dollars into their portfolios, so U.S. interest rates will have to rise further, as the markets seem to expect, and the dollar will have to depreciate. This will continue until the current account is back in approximate balance, and the entire load of deficit financing is shifted to excess U.S. saving. In his comments on Branson's paper, Jacob A. Frenkel discusses additional factors that have contributed to the evolution of the dollar since 1980. He concludes that in addition to U.S. fiscal policies, monetary policy in the United States and the fiscal position of the U.K., West Germany and Japan have also contributed to the dollar's strength.
Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Open Economy
Full text linkThe central theme of this paper is that international linkages between national economies influence, in fundamentally important ways, the effectiveness and proper conduct of national macroeconomic policies. Specifically, our purpose is to summarize the implications for the conduct of macroeconomic policies in open economies of both the traditional approach to open economy macroeconomics (as developed largely by James Meade, Robert Mundell, and J. Marcus Fleming) and of more recent developments. Our discussion is organized around three key linkages between national economies: through commodity trade; through capital mobility; and through exchange of national monies. These linkages have important implications concerning the effects of macroeconomic policies in open economies that differ from the effects of such policies in closed economies. Recent developments in the theory of macroeconomic policy have established conditions for the effectiveness of policies in influencing output and employment which emphasize the distinction between anticipated and unanticipated policy actions, the importance of incomplete information, and the consequences of contracts that fix nominal wages and prices over finite intervals. In this paper, we shall not analyze how these conditions are modified in an open economy. However, since our concern is with macro-economic policy, a principal objective of which is to influence output and employment, we shall assume that requisite conditions for such influence are satisfied.
The Mundell-Flemming Model: A Quarter Century Later
Full text linkThe Mundell-Fleming model of international macroeconomics originated in the writings of Robert A. Mundell and J. Marcus Fleming in the early 1960s. The key contribution of the model has been a systematic analysis of the role played by international capital mobility in determining the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies under alternative exchange rate regimes. During the ensuing quarter century, the model was extended in various directions and is still the main "work horse" of traditional open-economy macroeconomics. This paper develops an exposition that integrates the various facets of the model and incorporates its extensions into a unified analytical framework. Attention is given to the distinction between short-run and long-run effects of policies, the implication of debt and tax financing of government expenditures, the role of the exchange rate regime in this regard, and debt revaluation and trade-balance revaluation effects associated with exchange rate changes. The resulting integration clarifies the key economic mechanisms operating in the Mundell-Fleming model and helps to identify its limitations. Among these is the neglect of intertemporal budget constraints and of the consequences of forward- looking behavior consistent with this constraint. The formulation in the paper casts the model in a manner that facilitates comparisons with more modern approaches. In so doing, the exposition provides a bridge between the traditional and the more modern approaches to international macroeconomics.
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
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