7 research outputs found
A review of coupled hydrologic-hydraulic models for floodplain assessments in Africa: Opportunities and challenges for floodplain wetland management
No full textFloodplain wetlands are a fundamental part of the African continent’s ecosystem and serve as habitat for fish and wildlife species, biodiversity, and micro-organisms that support life. It is generally recognised that wetlands are and remain fragile ecosystems that should be subject to sustainable conservation and management through the use of sustainable tools. In this paper, we propose a synthesis of the state of art concerning coupled hydrologic and hydraulic models for floodplains assessments in Africa. Case studies reviewed in this paper have pointed out the potential of applying coupled hydrologic and hydraulic models and the opportunities present to be used in Africa especially for data scarce and large basin for floodplain assessments through the use of available open access models, coupling frameworks and remotely sensed datasets. To our knowledge this is the first case study review of this kind on this topic. A Hydrological model coupled with Hydraulic Model of the floodplain provides improvements in floodplain model simulations and hence better information for floodplain management. Consequently, this would lead to improved decision-making and planning of adaption and mitigation measures for sound floodplain wetland management plans and programmes especially with the advent of climate change and variability.Water Resource
Integrated Hydrologic-Hydrodynamic Inundation Modeling in a Groundwater Dependent Tropical Floodplain
No full textThe rapid development of free and open-access hydrological models and coupling framework tools continues to present more opportunities for coupled model development for improved assessment of floodplain hydrology. In this study, we set up an Upper Zambezi hydrological model and a fully spatially hydrological-hydrodynamic coupled model for the Barotse Floodplain using GLOFRIM (GLObally applicable computational FRamework for Integrated hydrological– hydrodynamic Modelling). The hydrological and hydrodynamic models used are WFLOW and LISFLOOD-FP, respectively. The simulated flows generated by the wflow model for the upstream gauge stations before the Barotse Floodplain were quite similar and closely matched the observed flow as indicated by the evaluation statistics; Chavuma, nse = 0.738; kge = 0.738; pbias = 2.561 and RSR = 0.511; Watopa, nse = 0.684; kge = 0.816; pbias = 10.577 and RSR = 0.557; and Lukulu, nse = 0.736; kge = 0.795; pbias = 10.437 and RSR = 0.509. However, even though the wflow hydrological model was able to simulate the upstream hydrology very well, the results at the floodplain outlet gauge stations did not quite match the observed monthly flows at Senanga gauge station as indicated by the evaluation statistics: nse = 0.132; kge = 0.509; pbias = 37.740 and RSR = 0.9233. This is mainly because the representation of both floodplain channel hydrodynamics and vertical hydrological processes is necessary to correctly capture floodplain dynamics. Thus, the need for an approach that saves as a basis for developing fully spatially distributed coupled hydrodynamic and hydraulic models’ assessments for groundwater dependent tropical floodplains such as the Barotse floodplain, in closing the gap between hydrology and hydrodynamics in floodplain assessments. A fully coupled model has the potential to be used in implementing adaptive wetland management strategies for water resources allocation, environmental flow (eflows), flood control, land use and climate change impact assessments.Water Resource
Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa - author correction
No full textImproving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and
nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate–food–emissions
modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often
associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required
HIV Prevention and Social Desirability: Husband–Wife Discrepancies in Reports of Condom Use
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•Resumen:
Greater use of condoms within marriage would help limit the spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP), the authors examined the influence that the fidelity norm and the traditional association between marriage and reproduction have on condom use with a spouse. The sample included 749 married couples. The authors used latent class analysis to estimate a "true," or latent measure of condom use by couples based on the individual reports of husbands and wives and to explore the reasons why individuals tend to misreport their use of condoms. They found that married couples with more children were more likely to use condoms and that having been informed by experts about AIDS prevention at home induced men and women to overreport condom use within marriage in a survey but may not necessarily increase the extent to which condoms are used.Depto. de Sociología AplicadaFac. de EducaciónTRUEpu
Factors influencing male involvement in prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in Khayelitsha, Cape Town, South Africa
No full textThis study sought to explore the role of men in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Two focus group discussions were held with 25 men of unknown status and one focus group discussion held with 12 HIV-positive women in the community. In-depth interviews were also conducted with four HIV-positive couples and five service providers purposely sampled from the community and a health facility, respectively
HIV transmission risk through anal intercourse: systematic review, meta-analysis and implications for HIV prevention.
No full textBACKGROUND: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infectiousness of anal intercourse (AI) has not been systematically reviewed, despite its role driving HIV epidemics among men who have sex with men (MSM) and its potential contribution to heterosexual spread. We assessed the per-act and per-partner HIV transmission risk from AI exposure for heterosexuals and MSM and its implications for HIV prevention. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature on HIV-1 infectiousness through AI was conducted. PubMed was searched to September 2008. A binomial model explored the individual risk of HIV infection with and without highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). RESULTS: A total of 62,643 titles were searched; four publications reporting per-act and 12 reporting per-partner transmission estimates were included. Overall, random effects model summary estimates were 1.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-2.5)] and 40.4% (95% CI 6.0-74.9) for per-act and per-partner unprotected receptive AI (URAI), respectively. There was no significant difference between per-act risks of URAI for heterosexuals and MSM. Per-partner unprotected insertive AI (UIAI) and combined URAI-UIAI risk were 21.7% (95% CI 0.2-43.3) and 39.9% (95% CI 22.5-57.4), respectively, with no available per-act estimates. Per-partner combined URAI-UIAI summary estimates, which adjusted for additional exposures other than AI with a 'main' partner [7.9% (95% CI 1.2-14.5)], were lower than crude (unadjusted) estimates [48.1% (95% CI 35.3-60.8)]. Our modelling demonstrated that it would require unreasonably low numbers of AI HIV exposures per partnership to reconcile the summary per-act and per-partner estimates, suggesting considerable variability in AI infectiousness between and within partnerships over time. AI may substantially increase HIV transmission risk even if the infected partner is receiving HAART; however, predictions are highly sensitive to infectiousness assumptions based on viral load. CONCLUSIONS: Unprotected AI is a high-risk practice for HIV transmission, probably with substantial variation in infectiousness. The significant heterogeneity between infectiousness estimates means that pooled AI HIV transmission probabilities should be used with caution. Recent reported rises in AI among heterosexuals suggest a greater understanding of the role AI plays in heterosexual sex lives may be increasingly important for HIV prevention
Stakeholder-driven transformative adaptation is needed for climate-smart nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa.
No full textImproving nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa under increasing climate risks and population growth requires a strong and contextualized evidence base. Yet, to date, few studies have assessed climate-smart agriculture and nutrition security simultaneously. Here we use an integrated assessment framework (iFEED) to explore stakeholder-driven scenarios of food system transformation towards climate-smart nutrition security in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia. iFEED translates climate-food-emissions modelling into policy-relevant information using model output implication statements. Results show that diversifying agricultural production towards more micronutrient-rich foods is necessary to achieve an adequate population-level nutrient supply by mid-century. Agricultural areas must expand unless unprecedented rapid yield improvements are achieved. While these transformations are challenging to accomplish and often associated with increased greenhouse gas emissions, the alternative for a nutrition-secure future is to rely increasingly on imports, which would outsource emissions and be economically and politically challenging given the large import increases required. [Abstract copyright: © 2024. The Author(s).
