1,721,709 research outputs found
Exchange rate volatility, UK imports and the recent financial crisis: evidence from symmetric ARDL and asymmetric ARDL methods
No full textUncertainty in the amount and direction of changes in exchange rates is described as the exchange rate volatility. This research examines the role of exchange rate volatility in determining the UK’s real imports in a broader perspective by including: i) the third country exchange rate volatility; and ii) the impact of the current financial crisis on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. In the context of international trade, exchange rates are often more important than the prices of the traded goods and services because the prices are observed to be more stable and predictable in comparison to the exchange rate movements. Thus, a rise in exchange rate volatility causes an increase in the degree of risk aversion of the traders, which results in the reduction of trade volume. This research contributes to the empirical literature on the subject by offering evidence based on the Symmetric ARDL bounds testing approach (Pesaran, Shin and Smith, 2001) and the Asymmetric ARDL method (Shin et al., 2013). These models are capable of addressing important issues related to the non-stationary and nonlinear characteristics of the underlying macroeconomic data. The analysis sample includes the UK’s major trading partners, i.e. the US, Germany and Japan representing the developed countries and Brazil, China and South Africa representing the developing economies. Results suggest that exchange rate volatility plays an important role, and also reveal that there is a significant effect from the recent financial crisis on UK imports. This finding is consistent when we test for the third country volatility effect. We also find that there is a significant causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports, both in bilateral tests and in tests that account for the third country exchange rate volatility. Comparative analysis of developed and developing countries shows that the third country effect is significant for all the countries. The UK imports’ demand elasticity to different determinant variables, including exchange rate volatility, changes significantly after the inclusion of the financial crisis. These changes are more pronounced under the Asymmetric ARDL method, where positive and negative changes in determinant variables, especially exchange rate volatilities, affect UK imports differently before and after inclusion of the financial crisis. These findings contribute to the existing literature as no evidence of the third country effect and asymmetric behavior of exchange rate volatility on UK trade flows currently exists in the literature. This has significant implications for trade policy and international trade to minimise the underlying risk factors and ensure stable trade flows in different economic scenarios
Trade and Economic Policy Uncertainty
No full textThis paper studies the role of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on US trade. It contributes to the literature by analyzing the asymmetric impact of policy uncertainty on the US trade with Canada, China, Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom from December 1989 to December 2017. Results suggest that there is a negative relationship between the EPU and the US trade flows. Further, US trade responds more sensitively to a rise in uncertainty compared to an equal negative shock, confirming the asymmetric hypothesis both in the short run and the long run. Comparing the respective uncertainty indices, US EPU has a significantly greater impact on the trade relative to the EPU of its trading partners. These findings have both demand and supply side implications – i.e. increase in the economic policy uncertainty can reduce the aggregate consumption significantly. Also, due to uncertain profit margins, businesses can choose to delay long-term investment projects and inventory levels resulting in a widespread recessionary effect on the US business cycle.</span
Exchange rate volatility and UK imports from developing countries: the effect of the global financial crisis
Full text linkThis paper studies the role of exchange rate volatility in determining the UK's real imports from three major developing countries – Brazil, China, and South Africa. The paper contributes to the literature by investigating the third country effect and also by analyzing the impact of the current financial crisis on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. This paper further expands the empirical literature on the subject by offering evidence based on the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method from the application of monthly data from January 1991 to December 2011. Results suggest that exchange rate volatility plays an important role in determination of trade and also reveal a significant effect of the recent financial crisis on UK imports. This finding remains consistent when we test for the third country volatility effect. We also find that there is a significant causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports. The third country effect is significant for all the countries investigated. These results have significant implications for the trade policy and international trade in minimizing the underlying risk factors and ensuring stable trade flows in different economic scenarios
On Graduation of Age-Specific Fertility Rates
Full text link6 pages, 1 article*On Graduation of Age-Specific Fertility Rates* (Hassan, Syed Zamir) 6 page
On Timeliness of Published Statistics in the Demographic Yearbook
Full text link16 pages, 1 article*On Timeliness of Published Statistics in the Demographic Yearbook* (Hassan, Syed Zamir) 16 page
UK imports from Germany, Japan and the US: empirical investigation of the third country effect and the global financial crisis
No full textThis paper investigates the influence of exchange rate volatility on the real imports of the United Kingdom from Germany, Japan and the US during the period 1991-2011. The sample applied also includes the current global financial crisis. Thus this paper also investigates the potential affect of the crisis on UK imports from these three major trade partners. The paper further investigates the third country affect on the UK imports. The ARDL cointegration method and the constrained error correction (general-to-specific) method are applied to study the relationship between real imports and its determinants (including exchange rate volatility). Conditional variance from the GARCH(p,q) model is applied as exchange rate volatility. Both nominal and real exchange rates are employed in the empirical study. Results indicate a significant effect of the current financial crisis on the exchange rate volatility and some affect on the UK imports from these countries. This is also true when testing for the third country affect
US economic uncertainty, EU business cycles and the global financial crisis
No full textThis paper investigates the impact of the U.S. economic uncertainty on the business cycles (changes in the industrial production) of 12 European Union (EU) countries before and during the global financial crisis. Empirical tests are conducted using the linear and non‐linear causality tests, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. Results show ample evidence of causality from the U.S. uncertainty to EU business cycles only when the crisis period is included in the analysis. Both the linear and non‐linear tests confirm the significance of U.S. uncertainty as a short‐term predictor of business cycles of the EU
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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