1,720,957 research outputs found
ASSESSING THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S UNCONVENTIONAL MEASURES - A RECURSIVE VAR APPROACH
Get PDFMSc. Filip Peovski[1]
PhD. Gjorgji Gockov[2]
ASSESSING THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK’S UNCONVENTIONAL MEASURES – A RECURSIVE VAR APPROACH
ABSTRACT
Unconventional monetary measures utilization has proven to be of great importance in maintaining monetary and economic stability after the Great Recession. However, we aim to test this conclusion through the impact of the quantitative easing implemented by the European Central Bank. Observed through generated shocks in the balance sheet of the Eurosystem as our main variable, we tested whether quantitative easing reestablished economic growth and rose price levels, mainly through lowering borrowing costs for banks, thus helping in the post-crisis recovery. To prove our hypotheses we construct a recursive VAR model estimated in levels using 2014M05-2018M12 data. The model incorporates variables such as the industrial production and the HICP, as output and price level proxies, and financial components such as the EONIA-MRO spread and the CISS index. The results show that the expansion shocks of the consolidated balance sheet have a positive temporary influence on industrial production and the HICP, but the reaction of the former seems to be 2.24 times greater. On the other hand, we find out that quantitative easing has an expected negative impact in widening the EONIA-MRO spread. Furthermore, we could not confirm the theoretically expected accommodative impact on financial stress.
Keywords: Unconventional monetary measures, price stability, policy interest rates, recursive VAR model
JEL Classification: C32, E43, E52, E58
[1] Teaching and Research Assistant, Faculty of Economics – Skopje, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University, e-mail: [email protected]
[2] Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics – Skopje, “Ss. Cyril and Methodius” University, e-mail: [email protected]
FACTORS DRIVING THE PUBLIC DEBT DYNAMICS: THE CASE OF REPUBLIC OF MACEDONIA
Get PDFThe global financial and economic crisis has placed a significant strain on public finances in many economies. Since sound public finances are crucial for price and financial stability and for economic growth, concerns about rising debt commitments have led to a renewed interest in the analysis of debt sustainability in the last decade. This paper discusses the concept of fiscal sustainability and investigates the factors driving the public debt dynamics in the Republic of Macedonia over the period 2004-2021. Although the level of indebtedness is still moderate (below 50% of GDP), the public debt dynamics from 2008 is worrying (public debt has doubled in only 7 years). The starting point for assessing debt sustainability is the government budget constraint equation. This equation explains the evolution and accumulation of government debt by three main factors: the primary balance, the “snowball” effect, and the deficit-debt adjustment. The conventional debt sustainability analysis showed that the general government debt ratio over the period 2004-2017 increased moderately as a result of a significant increase in the primary deficit (by 16 p.p.), that was almost completely offset by the positive “snowball” effect. In addition, we found that in the pre-crisis period (2004-2008), the general government debt ratio declined significantly, mainly as a result of a positive “snowball” effect but also because of the primary surplus. Contrary to pre-crisis developments, the general government debt ratio increased significantly (by 19 p.p.) in the post-crisis period (2009-2017), due to the significant primary deficit increase, while the positive “snowball” effect was moderate
Determinants of real convergence in Central and Eastern Europe
Get PDFThis paper deals with the process of convergence of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries towards the EU and attempts to identify the main driving factors behind this process. In these regards, we first provide an overview of the real convergence through an analysis of several economic variables – rate of approximation of real GDP per capita and price levels, trade integration, harmonization of the economic structure and achievements in the labor market. In addition, we offer a formal econometric evidence on the main determinants of the convergence process, based on a panel data for 10 CEE countries during 2000-2015 period, estimated with fixed effects. The results of our study imply that higher savings and investment ratio, higher labour productivity, more efficient labour markets (lower unemployment) and macroeconomic stability (lower inflation and lower budget deficits) are conducive to real convergence. However, quite surprisingly, we find that the close trade integration with the EU is associated with lower level of real convergence
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
How Monetary Policy Affects the Lending and Economic Activity in a Banking System with Excess Liquidity
No full textResearch purpose. The purpose of this paper is to examine the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in a banking system with excess liquidity. More specifically, it aims to examine how the interest rates of the central bank bills and inflation rate affect total lending and the overall economic activity in the country. For this purpose, the analysis is based on the case of the Republic of North Macedonia, whose banking system has exhibited excess liquidity in the past decade
Variations on the Author
Get PDF“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Get PDFWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Get PDFWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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