391 research outputs found

    Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations

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    The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations are accurate predictors of yields, but only for very short maturities. We argue that this is partly due to the ability of survey participants to incorporate information about the current state of the economy as well as forward-looking information such as that contained in monetary policy announcements. We show how the informational advantage of survey expectations about short yields can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible projection method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations in segments of the yield curve where the informational advantage exists and transmits the superior forecasting ability to all remaining yields. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to, without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy for the whole yield curve, with improvements of up to 52% over the years 2000-2012 relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates

    Anchoring the Yield Curve Using Survey Expectations

    No full text
    The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations can accurately predict yields, but they are typically not available for all maturities and/or forecast horizons. We show how survey expectations can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible exponential tilting method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations, and we develop a test to guide the choice of the anchoring points. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to - such as information about the current state of the economy or forward-looking information contained in monetary policy announcements - without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates

    Fatal Hepatocellular Carcinoma in a Patient with Occult Hepatitis B Virus Infection following the Administration of R-CHOP for Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma

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    Occult hepatitis B (OBI) is caused by a persistent low-level replication of HBV. Like overt HBV infection, OBI can be associated with the integration of HBV sequences into the host genome and has a substantial clinical relevance for patients who are severely immunosuppressed for long durations. We present the case of a patient with a diffuse large B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma and OBI who developed a hepatocellular carcinoma with a fulminant clinical course following the administration of rituximab plus CHOP

    Multiple paraneoplastic diseases occurring in the same patient after thymomectomy

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    Thymoma-associated paraneoplastic diseases include myasthenia gravis (MG), neuromyotonia (NMT), Morvan's syndrome, and several non-neurological paraneoplastic manifestations, including glomerulonephritis. Paraneoplastic syndromes often precede the occurrence of thymoma, but cases occurring after thymomectomy, which sometimes herald the recurrence of thymoma, have also been described. We report on a patient who developed MG after thymomectomy for a malignant thymoma. After MG remission, NMT and Morvan's syndrome occurred, which heralded a mediastinic recurrence, as demonstrated only by autopsy findings

    Gaia16bak transient classified at Cassini 1.5m telescope

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    We obtained a spectrum of the Gaia Science Alerts transient Gaia16bak (http://gsaweb.ast.cam.ac.uk/alerts/alert/Gaia16bak/) on 2016 September 4.02 UT at the 1.5m G.D. Cassini Telescope (Loiano) with BFOSC...

    How do financial markets react to monetary policy signals?

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    We map ECB policy communications onto yield curve changes and study the information flow on monetary policy decision dates. We find that different monetary policy measures exert effects on different segments of the interest rate term structure, with policy rate changes mostly influencing the short end of the curve and quantitative easing measures acting more on the long end. The impact of forward guidance policies, by contrast, reaches its peak at intermediate maturities. A very useful by-product of this work is the publicly available Euro Area Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (EA-MPD), containing intraday asset price changes

    Spindle-cell tumours of the larynx: diagnostic pitfalls. A case report and review of the literature.

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    Malignant laryngeal tumours with spindle-cell morphology are relatively rare. Differential diagnosis of spindle-cell carcinoma, leiomyosarcoma, fibrosarcoma, rhabdomyosarcoma, malignant melanoma and inflammatory myofibroblastic tumour may be particularly difficult. Ambiguous and indeterminate diagnoses are also possible after immunohistochemical investigations of the expression of specific tumour markers but electron microscopic observations help to clarify most of these diagnoses

    Adrenal incidentaloma in pregnancy: clinical, molecular and immunohistochemical findings

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    Adrenal incidentalomas detected during pregnancy are very rare, and the natural history of these tumors during gestation is unknown. We report a case of a pregnant woman with an adrenal mass discovered serendipitously, who was followed-up during gestation and underwent adrenalectomy shortly after delivery. This allowed the evaluation of both the clinical outcome and the molecular/immunohistochemical correlates. Estrogens may indeed influence the function and proliferation of human adrenal cells, and a state of circulating estrogen excess can represent an in vivo model to test their effect on the adrenals. No evidence of adrenal change in morphology and function was found in our patient throughout pregnancy, as shown by adrenal ultrasound imaging and adrenal hormone measurements. Four months after delivery, the patient underwent laparoscopic right adrenalectomy, and pathologic analysis revealed a 2.7 cm benign adrenocortical adenoma. The diameter of the adrenal mass at ultrasonography correlated highly with post-partum mass diameter measured by abdominal computed tomography (CT). Quantitative expression of both ERalpha and ERbeta by real-time RT-PCR analysis and Western blotting findings did not differ among adenoma, normal adjacent adrenal and normal adrenal control tissues. This case of an adrenal incidentaloma discovered during pregnancy shows that a close observation with endocrine investigations and ultrasonography could be an appropriate approach, delaying the decision of surgical intervention after delivery. Estrogen receptor mRNA levels in the adrenal mass similar to those observed in normal adrenals suggest that estrogen oversecretion during pregnancy was not a risk factor for tumor progression
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