1,720,960 research outputs found
A Space-Time Extension of the Lee-Carter Model in a Hierarchical Bayesian Framework: Modelling Provincial Mortality in Italy
No full textThe main purpose of this paper is to define a statistical method to model mortality rates by age and sex for provincial areas in Italy. In a preliminary descriptive analysis, we demonstrate the existence of specific spatio-temporal patterns. Thus, we propose a hierarchical Bayesian model that allows area-level estimates to borrow strength from each other by exploiting spatial association of provincial mortality rates and taking into account temporal correlation. As a result, it appears that model based estimates are less variable than direct estimates
Le sorprese positive dai territori
No full textIl capitolo mostra come nonostante il quadro nazionale sembri dominato da preoccupazioni demografiche, alcune aree del Paese presentano segni di vitalità inaspettata. In un’Italia che invecchia e vede calare la natalità, emergono territori che sfidano le tendenze negative, grazie a dinamiche migratorie e sociali che infondono nuova linfa. L’Emilia-Romagna, ad esempio, si distingue per la capacità di attrarre giovani e studenti, creando un circolo virtuoso che riduce l’invecchiamento e mantiene la popolazione attiva. Allo stesso modo, il capitolo mette in luce come in Sardegna e Sicilia esistano gruppi di comuni con longevità eccezionale, le cui comunità sembrano nascondere i segreti di una vita lunga e sana. Anche sulla distribuzione territoriale della popolazione straniera vengono sfatate alcune narrazioni dominanti: gli immigrati non si concentrano solo nelle grandi città e talvolta contribuiscono in maniera significativa a bilanciare il declino demografico locale. Queste "sorprese demografiche" dimostrano quanto sia cruciale guardare oltre le medie nazionali e analizzare i fenomeni a livello locale e/o sub-locale, fornendo indicazioni preziose per politiche territoriali più efficaci e mirate. Una lettura che sfida il pessimismo e invita a ripensare il futuro demografico dell’Italia.The chapter highlights the unexpected demographic vitality and territorial heterogeneity observed in population dynamics, distribution of foreign residents, and longevity patterns. These findings contrast with broader national demographic concerns, highlighting localized divergences from expected trends. In an aging Italy with declining birth rates, some territories defy negative trends thanks to migratory and social dynamics that bring new life. While the overall Italian population has essentially halted its growth and fertility remains low, the Emilia-Romagna region have experienced significant and beneficial population dynamism, both Italian and foreign citizens, with substantial inflows and outflows. The region stands out for its ability to attract young people and students, creating a virtuous cycle that reduces aging and keeps the population active.
Similarly, the age distribution of the population at the local level also reveals specificities that highlight ’positive surprises’ within a predominantly pessimistic narrative of demographic dynamics. While it is undeniable that Italy is a rapidly and intensely aging country, posing challenges for the healthcare, pension, and social assistance systems, it is also true that the country is characterized by exceptional levels of longevity. Sardinia has known as one the blue zones with exceptional longevity but also in Sicily there are groups of municipalities, which seem to hold the secrets to a long and healthy life and could make this region included in the list of areas with high longevity in the future.
The chapter also debunks myths about the settlement models of the foreign population. Observing the geographical distribution of the population by citizenship reveals a country characterized by a relatively smaller foreign presence as one moves from North to South. But immigrants are not only concentrated in large cities and sometimes significantly contribute to balancing local demographic decline.
These ‘demographic surprises’ demonstrate how crucial it is to look beyond national averages and analyse phenomena at the sub-national and, in particular, at the local level, providing valuable insights for more effective and targeted territorial policies. This is particularly true (and significant) in Italy because, unlike other EU countries, it has a highly complex orographic and geomorphological landscape and deeply rooted local identities and spatial disparities. A careful look at the local heterogeneity can highlight geographical peculiarities that may not be visible in a large-scale overall view. Therefore, the chapter urges and pushes into a ‘local thinking’ approach in demographic studies and contributes to the design of effective and targeted municipal policies
Misure e implicazioni demografiche dell'esclusione sociale - MIDES
No full textIl lavoro raccoglie alcuni contributi realizzati nel corso di un programma di ricerca sostenuto dalla Commissione Europea (contr. n. VS/2000/0367), che hanno fatto oggetto di dibattito in sede scientifica nazionale ed internazionale.
Pur frutto di un comune lavoro di studio e di ricerca, questa pubblicazione ha visto l’apporto individuale e specifico di Elena Ambrosetti (par. 3.2.3), Carlotta Blasi (par. 3.2.5), Raimondo Cagiano de Azevedo (par. 5.1.2) Giorgia Capacci (par. 2.1; 4.1; cap. VI ), Cinzia Castagnaro (par. 3.2.2.1), Carola Cerbini (pr. 3.2.2.2), Francesca Colasanti (par. 4.2), Alessandra Garbero(par. 1.3; 2.3; 2.4; 3.1; 3.2.1; 3.2.4; 5.1.1), Cristina Giudici (par. 1.1; 1.2; 2.2; conclusioni), Domenica Fioredistella Iezzi (par. 5.2), Adriano Neri (par.3.2.6).The work brings together some of the contributions made during the course of a research program supported by the European Commission (n contr. VS/2000/0367), which have been the subject of debate in the national and international scientific. Although the result of a joint study and research, this publication has seen the contribution of specific individual and Elena Ambrosetti (section 3.2.3), Charlotte Blasi (section 3.2.5), Raymond Cagiano de Azevedo (par. 5.1.2) Giorgia Capacci (par. 2.1, 4.1, chap. VI), Cynthia Castagnaro (Section 3.2.2.1), Carola Cerbini (pr. 3.2.2.2), Francesca Colasanti (par. 4.2), Alessandra Garbero (par . 1.3, 2.3, 2.4, 3.1, 3.2.1, 3.2.4, 5.1.1), Cristina Giudici (par. 1.1, 1.2, 2.2, conclusions), Sunday Fioredistella Iezzi (par. 5.2), Adriano Blacks (par. 3.2.6)
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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