878 research outputs found
Preissetzungsfrequenz und die Phillips-Kurve
No full textEmanuel Gasteiger (Technische Universität Wien) präsentiert ein aktuelles Arbeitspapier, welches er zusammen mit Alex Grimaud (Universität Amsterdam) verfasst hat. Im Forschungspapier wird eine Variante eines Neu-Keynesianischen (NK) Modells mit endogener Preissetzung vorgestellt. Das Modell legt nahe, dass Firmen in einem expansiven volkswirtschaftlichen Umfeld flexibler in ihrer Preissetzung sind als in Rezessionen. Mit der vorgestellten Variante des NK-Modells lässt sich die tatsächlich beobachtbare Preisanpassungsfrequenz erklären und historische Veränderungen (Steigung, Verschiebungen) der Phillips-Kurve besser verstehen
Fiscal Foresight, Limited Information and the Effects of Government Spending Shocks
No full textWe quantify the impact of government spending shocks in the US. Thereby, we control for fiscal foresight, a specific limited information problem (LIP) by utilizing the narrative approach. Moreover, we surmount the generic LIP inherent in vector autoregressions (VARs) by a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. We find that a positive deficit-financed defence shock raises output by more than in a VAR (e.g. 2.61 vs. 2.04 for peak multipliers). Furthermore, our evidence suggests that consumption is crowded in. These results are robust to variants of controlling for fiscal foresight and reveal the crucial role of the LIP in fiscal VARs
Does one size fit all in the Euro Area? Some counterfactual evidence
Full text linkThis paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence supporting this claim for the periods of the Great Recession and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. The deterioration of the tradeoff becomes insignificant only after Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ announcement. Results show that the detrimental effect of the Euro is more severe for peripheral countries.We base our results on a novel empirical strategy that, consistent with monetary theory, models the joint determination of the variability of inflation and output conditional on structural supply and demand shocks
Does one size fit all in the Euro Area? Some counterfactual evidence
No full textThis paper examines whether Euro Area countries would have faced a more favorable inflation output variability tradeoff without the Euro. We provide evidence that this claim is true for the periods of the Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. For the Euro Area as a whole, the deterioration of the tradeoff becomes insignificant with Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ announcement onwards. However, a more detailed analysis shows that the detrimental effect of the Euro is more severe and long-lasting for peripheral countries, pointing to structural differences among Euro Area countries as a key element of the detrimental effect of the Euro. We base our results on a novel empirical strategy that, consistently with monetary theory, models the joint determination of the variability of inflation and output conditional on structural supply shocks. Moreover, our findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns related to adoption of the Euro
On the Macroeconomic Performance of the Euro Area
No full textThis paper examines whether Euro countries would have faced a more favourable inflation output
variability trade off without the Euro. We find evidence that this claim is true for the periods of the
Great Recession and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. However, the deterioration of the trade
off becomes insignificant with Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ announcement. We base our results on
a novel empirical strategy that, consistent with monetary theory, models the joint determination
of the variability of inflation and output conditioned on structural supply shocks. Moreover, our
findings are robust to potential endogeneity concerns related to adopting the Euro
The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States
No full textWe estimate state-dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use an Interacted Vector Autoregression (IVAR) model to capture the time-varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification we find that government spending multipliers range from 3.4 to 3.7 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers range from 1.5 to 2.7. Next, we address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs by the help of a Factor-Augmented IVAR (FAIVAR). We find that multipliers are lower in this case, ranging from 2.0 to 2.1 at the ZLB and between 1.5 and 1.8 away from it. Thus, in both specifications we find that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower. Our results are consistent with recent theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB
The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the United States
Full text linkWe estimate state‐dependent government spending multipliers for the United States. We use a factor‐augmented interacted vector autoregression (FAIVAR) model. This allows us to capture the time‐varying monetary policy characteristics including the recent zero interest rate lower bound (ZLB) state, to account for the state of the business cycle and to address the limited information problem typically inherent in VARs. We identify government spending shocks by sign restrictions and use a government spending growth forecast series to account for the effects of anticipated fiscal policy. In our baseline specification, we find that government spending multipliers in a recession range from 3.56 to 3.79 at the ZLB. Away from the ZLB, multipliers in recessions range from 2.31 to 3.05. Several robustness analyses confirm that multipliers are higher, when the interest rate is lower and that multipliers in recessions exceed multipliers in expansions. Our results are consistent with theories that predict larger multipliers at the ZLB
The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand‐ and Supply‐Driven Recessions
No full textWe estimate government spending multipliers in demand- and supply-driven recessions for the Euro Area. Multipliers in a moderately demand-driven recession are two to three times larger than in a moderately supply-driven recession, with the difference between multipliers being non-zero with very high probability. More generally, multipliers are inversely correlated with the deviation of inflation from its trend, implying that the more demand-driven a recession, the higher the multiplier. Multipliers range from −0.5 in supply-driven recessions to about 2 in demand-driven recessions. The econometric approach leverages a factor-augmented interacted vector-autoregression model purified of expectations (FAIPVAR-X). The model captures the time-varying state of the business-cycle including strongly and moderately demand- and supply-driven recessions, by taking the whole distribution of inflation deviations from trend into accoun
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Emanuel Law Outlines for Evidence.
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No full textAny law school graduate will tell you that when picking your outline tool, you need to pick the best because your outlines are the most important study tool you will use throughout your law school career. Developed by legendary study aid author Steve Emanuel, Emanuel? Law Outlines (ELOs) are the #1 outline choice among law students. An ELO ensures that you understand the concepts as you learn them in class and helps you study for exams throughout the semester. Here's why you need an ELO from your first day of class right through your final exam: ELOs help you focus on the concepts and issues you need to master to succeed on exams. They are easy to understand: Each ELO contains comprehensive coverage of the topics, cases, and black letter law found in your specific casebook, but is explained in a way that is understandable. The Quiz Yourself and Essay Q&A features help you test your knowledge throughout the semester. Exam Tips alert you to the issues and fact patterns that commonly pop up on exams. The Capsule Summary provides a quick review of the key concepts covered in the full Outline?perfect for exam review!
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