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Prevedibile Imprevedibile
No full textAlluvioni, frane, terremoti, eruzioni vulcaniche hanno scritto e scrivono una storia dell’Italia in cui si succedono i disastri, con perdite di vite umane, danni economici enormi e sconvolgimenti sociali. Di questa storia non si vede la fine, e mentre nuovi tipi di rischi incombono, non abbiamo ancora limitato o evitato i disastri che già furono delle società antiche.
Aggrapparsi alla previsione impossibile di un evento estremo, o alla presunta imprevedibilità di un disastro, può solo condurre a un immobilismo sterile quanto colpevole. Come trattano la previsione i geologi, i geofisici, i sismologi, i meteorologi? Cosa ne pensano i filosofi, gli storici, gli antropologi ? Come si raccordano i saperi scientifici con la cultura diffusa del Paese, per lo più estranea ai temi del rischio e quasi rassegnata al fatalismo?
Alcuni studiosi del settore scientifico e umanistico si confrontano qui per la prima volta, chiarendo metodi e risultati e scambiando riflessioni su un tema cruciale per il Paese. Per affrontare il futuro è necessario che la prevenzione non sia più una gigantesca utopia: per questo occorre ripartire dalla conoscenza, dai problemi e dai limiti della ricerca, ma anche dalle sue conquiste, assegnando alla parola prevedibilità un significato corretto e facendo della responsabilità il punto di partenza che può gestire anche le incertezze
Comment on “The Curious Case of the 1346 Earthquake Recorded Only by Very Young Chroniclers” by Romano Camassi and Viviana Castelli
No full textThe article by Camassi and Castelli (2013) (hereinafter CC13) deals with the 1346, northern Italy earthquake, one of hundreds of medieval earthquakes that were investigated in Italy from 1983 to 2007. Regrettably, the article does not add any new data but only proposes a revision and a reinterpretation of published materials. CC13 first criticized the variability of magnitude estimates assigned to this earthquake in catalogs published in Italy over the past 20 years, then went so far as to question whether the 1346 earthquake actually occurred. Their analysis, however, is fraught with demonstrable mistakes in the analysis of medieval texts, such that their conclusions are objectionable both from the point of view of historical criticism and from that of historical seismology. Such conclusions may critically affect the assessment of seismic hazard in a heavily populated and industrialized portion of the Po Plain (northern Italy), right at a time when the threat posed by strong earthquakes in this region is being rediscovered by the citizens and by their administrators following the 20 and 29 May 2012, Emilia events (Mw 6.0 and 5.9). As the coauthors of the catalogs being questioned, we feel an obligation to re-establish what is the evidence supporting 1346 being a real major earthquake and why its magnitude is still uncertain
What Is an Exceptional Earthquake?
No full textOn 8 September 2020, the Italian media reported that the Court of Rieti, central Italy, found guilty with imprisonment between five and nine years the five defendants for the collapse of two public housing buildings and the death of 18 people, following the 24 August 2016 Mw 6.0 Amatrice earthquake; the first of a long‐lasting earthquake sequence featuring nine Mw > 5 events, the largest being an Mw 6.5 near the town of Norcia. The court rejected a claim of exceptionality of the ground shaking put forward by the defendants
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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