1,720,962 research outputs found
The Effects of Temperature Shocks on Energy Prices and Inflation in the Euro Area
No full textOver the last twenty years, temperature variability has been increasing across Europe, affecting the economy through the demand for energy for heating and cooling needs. This paper provides empirical evidence about the transmission channel of temperature shocks to inflation by estimating a Structural Vector Autoregressive model (SVAR) for six Euro-Area countries. We study hot and cold shocks by starting from monthly regional temperature anomalies and proposing a novel sign-restriction identification scheme. Hot shocks are more relevant than cold ones because they persistently lower energy prices. The negative impact on energy demand due to heatwaves suggests that a turn-off-heating effect outweighs the turn-on-cooling in Europe. That effect prevails in Northern countries, where energy inflation without heatwaves would be higher than the actual one. At the Euro Area level, the overall effect is sizable although limited: the historical contribution of the highest heatwaves accounted for missing annual headline and energy inflation
The misalignment of fiscal multipliers in Italian regions
No full textThis paper estimates fiscal multipliers resulting from shocks to current public expenditure, total public revenues, and public investment in Italian regions by accounting for the structural heterogeneity between Northern and Southern economies. The estimation is carried out by estimating a Bayesian panel vector autoregression, where the structural shocks are identified using sign restrictions suggested by economic theory. The results shed new light on regional fiscal shocks’ magnitude and propagation. Moreover, a misalignment of fiscal multipliers is revealed, possibly policy relevant to local and central authorities.</p
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Real-time signals anticipating credit booms in Euro Area countries
No full textThis paper identi es credit booms in 11 Euro Area countries by tracking private
loans from the banking sector. The events are associated with both nancial crises and
speci c macro
uctuations, but the standard identi cation through threshold methods
does not allow to catch credit booms in real time data. Thus, an early warning model
is employed to predict the explosive dynamics of credit through several macro- nancial
indicators. The model catches a large part of the in-sample events and signals correctly
both the global nancial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in an out-of-sample setting
by issuing signals in real-time data. Moreover, while tranquil booms are driven by
global dynamics, crisis-booms are related to the resilience of domestic banking systems
to adverse nancial shocks. The results suggest an ex-ante policy intervention can
avoid dangerous credit booms by focusing on the solvency of the domestic banking
system and fi nancial market's overheating
Real-time signals anticipating credit booms in Euro Area countries
No full textThis paper identi es credit booms in 11 Euro Area countries by tracking private
loans from the banking sector. The events are associated with both nancial crises and
speci c macro
uctuations, but the standard identi cation through threshold methods
does not allow to catch credit booms in real time data. Thus, an early warning model
is employed to predict the explosive dynamics of credit through several macro- nancial
indicators. The model catches a large part of the in-sample events and signals correctly
both the global nancial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in an out-of-sample setting
by issuing signals in real-time data. Moreover, while tranquil booms are driven by
global dynamics, crisis-booms are related to the resilience of domestic banking systems
to adverse nancial shocks. The results suggest an ex-ante policy intervention can
avoid dangerous credit booms by focusing on the solvency of the domestic banking
system and fi nancial market's overheating
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
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