1,732,225 research outputs found
Aggregation of Linear Dynamic Microeconomic Models
No full textWe survey a number of important results concerning aggregation of dynamic, stochastic relations. We do not aim at a comprehensive review; instead, we focus heavily on the results collected in Forni and Lippi [Forni, M., Lippi, M., 1997. Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics. Oxford University Press, Oxford]. We argue that the representative-agent assumption is misleading and the microfoundation of dynamic macroeconomics should be based on explicit modeling of heterogeneity across agents. An unpleasant aspect of this modeling strategy is that macroeconomic implications of micro theory are difficult to obtain. However, difficulties are reduced by large number results. Moreover, puzzling implications of existing theories could be reconciled with empirical evidence on macro data. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserve
Analisi tecnico-economica del potenziale di efficientamento energetico dei forni fusori del distretto del vetro artistico di Murano
Get PDFStudio sul potenziale di efficientamento energetico dei forni fusori per il vetro di Murano, con caratterizzazione dello stato attuale delle installazioni tramite un'indagine statistica, una campagna di misurazioni per fissare i benchmark di consumo delle tecnologie ritenute obsolete e confronto con forni nuovi. Per i forni nuovi, si sono presentate le tecnologie per l'efficientamento. Infine sono state simulate due analisi economiche per due tipi di forni con parametri diversi di funzionamentoope
Dynamic Factor Model with Infinite Dimensional Factor Space: Forecasting
Get PDFAbstract. The paper compares the pseudo real-time forecasting performance of threeDynamic Factor Models: (i) The standard principal-component model, Stock and Watson(2002a), (ii) The model based on generalized principal components, Forni et al. (2005),(iii) The model recently proposed in Forni et al. (2015) and Forni et al. (2016). We employa large monthly dataset of macroeconomic and financial time series for the US economy,which includes the Great Moderation, the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery.Using a rolling window for estimation and prediction, we find that (iii) neatly outperforms(i) and (ii) in the Great Moderation period for both Industrial Production and Inflation,and for Inflation over the full sample. However, (iii) is outperfomed by (i) and (ii) over thefull sample for Industrial Production.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishe
La prospettiva del ranocchio. Lo sguardo dei bambini sul mondo adulto.
No full textAnalisi del rapporto difficile tra due categorie sociali che esprimono visioni del mondo antagoniste: adulti e bambini. Di questi ultimi si fa portavoce Altan attraverso le sue vignette, sulle quali si sofferma l'analisi sociologica di Forni, sottolineandone incoerenze, egoismi, assenza di valori, violenze
L'efficienza energetica dei processi di cottura nei forni combinati, analisi e confronti
No full textComparazione dei differenti sistemi di cottura, confrontandoli con le prestazioni dei forni commerciali. Analisi dell'efficienza nei forni combinati UNOX con la valutazione dei margini di miglioramento e modifiche realizzabilireservedEmbargo permanente per motivi di segretezza e/o di proprietà dei risultati e informazioni di enti esterni o aziende private che hanno partecipato alla realizzazione del lavoro di ricerca relativo alla tes
G. Forni,Le tribù romane. I tribules (L-S)
No full textRaccolta sistematica delle testimonianze epigrafiche relative ai tribùles con gentilizio iniziante con le lettere dalla L alla S ( per un totale di 3589 documenti).La menzione della tribù è frequente all'inizio dell'età imperiale e comincia a diminuire nel corso del III sec.d.C.La più recente indicazione di tribù finora rinvenuta è in un'iscrizione da Hispellum databile poco dopo il 333/7 d.C. Sistematic collection of epigraphic texts of tribùles with nomina starting with L-S (all in all 3589 documents). The tribe's mention is frequently attested in the Early Empire and decreases during 2nd century A.D. The latest datable text found until now is an inscription from Hispellum (after 333/7 A. D.)
The general dynamic factor model: One-sided representation results
No full textRecent dynamic factor models have been almost exclusively developed under the assumption that the common components span a finite-dimensional vector space. However, this finite-dimension assumption rules out very simple factor-loading patterns and is therefore severely restrictive. The general case has been studied, using a frequency domain approach, in Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2000). That paper produces an estimator of the common components that is consistent but is based on filters that are two-sided and therefore unsuitable for prediction. The present paper, assuming a rational spectral density for the common components, obtains a one-sidedestimator without the finite-dimension assumption
Dynamic Factor Models with Infinite-Dimensional Factor Space: Asymptotic Analysis
Get PDFFactor models, all particular cases of the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) introduced in Forni et al., (2000), have become extremely popular in the theory and practice of large panels of time series data. The asymptotic properties (consistency and rates) of the corresponding estimators have been studied in Forni et al. (2004). Those estimators, however, rely on Brillinger’s concept of dynamic principal components, and thus involve two-sided filters, which leads to rather poor forecasting performances. No such problem arises with estimators based on standard (static) principal components, which have been dominant in this literature. On the other hand, the consistency of those static estimators requires the assumption that the space spanned by the factors has finite dimension, which severely restricts their generality—prohibiting, for instance, autoregressive factor loadings. This paper derives the asymptotic properties of a semiparametric estimator of the loadings and common shocks based on one-sided filters recently proposed by Forni et al., (2015). Consistency and exact rates of convergence are obtained for this estimator, under a general class of GDFMs that does not require a finite-dimensional factor space. A Monte Carlo experiment and an empirical exercise on US macroeconomic data corroborate those theoretical results and demonstrate the excellent performance of those estimators in out-of-sample forecasting
The Forecasting Performance of Dynamic Factor Models with Vintage Data
Get PDFWe present a comparative analysis of the forecasting performance of two dynamic factor models, the Stock and Watson (2002a, b) model and the Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin (2005) model, based on vintage data. Our dataset that contains 107 monthly US “first release” macroeconomic and financial vintage time series, spanning the 1996:12 to 2017:6 period with monthly periodicity, extracted from the Bloomberg database† . We compute real-time one-month-ahead forecasts with both models for four key macroeconomic variables: the month-on-month change in industrial production, the unemployment rate, the core consumer price index and the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index. First, we find that both the Stock and Watson and the Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin models outperform simple autoregressions for industrial production, unemployment rate and consumer prices, but that only the first model does so for the PMI. Second, we find that neither models always outperform the other. While Forni, Hallin, Lippi and Reichlin’s beats Stock and Watson’s in forecasting industrial production and consumer prices, the opposite happens for the unemployment rate and the PMI
- …
