1,721,228 research outputs found
Toshio Suzuki, Japanese Government Loan Issues on the London Capital Market 1870-1913
No full textFlandreau Marc. Toshio Suzuki, Japanese Government Loan Issues on the London Capital Market 1870-1913. In: Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales. 53ᵉ année, N. 3, 1998. pp. 666-668
Toshio Suzuki, Japanese Government Loan Issues on the London Capital Market 1870-1913
No full textFlandreau Marc. Toshio Suzuki, Japanese Government Loan Issues on the London Capital Market 1870-1913. In: Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales. 53ᵉ année, N. 3, 1998. pp. 666-668
Jérôme Bourdieu, Anticipations et ressources finies, le marché pétrolier américain dans l'entre-deux-guerres
No full textFlandreau Marc. Jérôme Bourdieu, Anticipations et ressources finies, le marché pétrolier américain dans l'entre-deux-guerres. In: Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales. 53ᵉ année, N. 3, 1998. pp. 668-670
Jérôme Bourdieu, Anticipations et ressources finies, le marché pétrolier américain dans l'entre-deux-guerres
No full textFlandreau Marc. Jérôme Bourdieu, Anticipations et ressources finies, le marché pétrolier américain dans l'entre-deux-guerres. In: Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales. 53ᵉ année, N. 3, 1998. pp. 668-670
Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market: Austria-Hungary, 1876-1914
Full text linkWe explore the efficiency of the forward Reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast of the future spot rate. We find that shortly after the introduction of a “shadow†gold standard in the mid-1890s the forward rate became a considerably better predictor of the future spot rate than during the prior flexible exchange rate regime. Between 1907 and 1914 forecast errors were between a half and one-fourth of their pre-1896 level. This implies that the Austro-Hungarian Bank's policy of defending the gold value of the currency was successful in improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market.exchange rate; gold standard; ARIMA; efficiency
Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market: Austria-Hungary, 1876-1914
Full text linkWe explore the efficiency of the forward Reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast of the future spot rate. We find that shortly after the introduction of a "shadow" gold standard in the mid-1890s the forward rate became a considerably better predictor of the future spot rate than during the prior flexible exchange rate regime. Between 1907 and 1914 forecast errors were between a half and one-fourth of their pre-1896 level. This implies that the Austro-Hungarian Bank's policy of defending the gold value of the currency was successful in improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market
Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market
Full text linkWe explore the efficiency of the forward reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast of the future spot rate. We find that shortly after the introduction of a "shadow" gold standard in the mid-1890s the forward rate became a considerably better predictor of the future spot rate than during the prior flexible exchange rate regime. Between 1907 and 1914 forecast errors were between a half and one-fourth of their pre-1896 level. This implies that the Austro-Hungarian Bank's policy of defending the gold value of the currency was successful in improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market
Using ARIMA Forecasts to Explore the Efficiency of the Forward Reichsmark Market
Full text linkWe explore the efficiency of the forward reichsmark market in Vienna between 1876 and 1914. We estimate ARIMA models of the spot exchange rate in order to forecast the one-month-ahead spot rate. In turn we compare these forecasts to the contemporaneous forward rate, i.e., the market's forecast of the future spot rate. We find that shortly after the introduction of a "shadow" gold standard in the mid-1890s the forward rate became a considerably better predictor of the future spot rate than during the prior flexible exchange rate regime. Between 1907 and 1914 forecast errors were between a half and one-fourth of their pre-1896 level. This implies that the Austro-Hungarian Bank's policy of defending the gold value of the currency was successful in improving the efficiency of the foreign exchange market.
Target Zones in History and Theory: Lessons from an Austro-Hungarian Experiment (1896-1914)
Full text linkThe first known experiment with an exchange rate band took place in Austria-
Hungary between 1896 and 1914. The rationale for introducing this policy rested
on precisely those intuitions that the modern literature has emphasized: the band
was designed to secure both exchange rate stability and monetary policy
autonomy. However, unlike more recent experiences, such as the ERM, this
policy was not undermined by credibility problems. The episode provides an ideal
testing ground for some important ideas in modern macroeconomics: specifically,
can formal rules, when faithfully adhered to, provide policy makers with some
advantages such as short term autonomy? First, we find that a credible band has a
"microeconomic" influence on exchange rate stability. By reducing uncertainty, a
credible fluctuation band improves the quality of expectations, a channel that has been neglected in the modern literature. Second, we show that the standard test of the basic target zone model is flawed and develop an alternative methodology. We believe that these findings shed a new light on the economics of exchange rate bands
Lorsque le leader suit la foule: la crise Baring dans une perspective microéconomique, 1880-1890
No full textCette thèse fait une analyse microéconomique sur les années 1880 qui ont précédé la crise Baring en Argentine. Les théories jusqu'ici développées, ayant pour la plupart observé l'aspect macroéconomique de la crise, ont laissé des questions ouvertes principalement concernant le « timing » de l'événement. Notre hypothèse est que la concurrence entre les intermédiaires financiers provoqua des distorsions qui ont fait basculer l'Argentine vers la crise, bien que cette dernière ait été prévue depuis au moins trois ans auparavant
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