132 research outputs found
THE DEGREE OF COMPETITION IN THE EUROPEAN FOOTBALL LEAGUES: A STATISTICAL APPROACH
No full textAs a professional sport, professional football teams in a league compete in imperfect market conditions since every team in a professional football league may be known by their differentiated product (i.e. the quality of football they play). If the competition level increases, the quality of football being played may also increase. Thus, consumers`(i.e. football spectators) value of money spent on football should increase too. Thus, this paper tries to implement the above mentioned economic principle through a statistical method on nine European countries football leagues, in an individual and comparative manner. During the estimation period, it is calculated that, on average, the highest level of football competition took place in France, whereas Turkish football came last.football ranking, European Football, optimal football league
CAN WE PREDICT THE OUTCOME OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOOTBALL TOURNAMENTS : THE CASE OF EURO 2000?
No full textThis paper statistically analyses and attempts to predict the most likely winners of the Euro 2000 football tournament on the basis of the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points, which were computed from the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000. The CV values computed from over ten seasons for the respective countries were used as a sole measurement value to rank the countries and to determine the most likely winners of Euro 2000. According to the three scenarios (long-term, mid-term, and short-term) based on the respective CV values of fifteen countries, France appeared to be the most likely country to win Euro 2000 and was closely followed by Spain.Football, Ranking, UEFA, Sports forecasts.
An ARDL model of unrecorded and recorded economies in Turkey
No full textPurpose: The goal of this paper is twofold: to estimate the unrecorded economy (UE) of Turkey over the period 1987-2007 using a revised version of the currency demand approach and to analyze the relationship between UE and recorded GDP.
Design/methodology/approach: we propose to measure UE by the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration analysis. Toda- Yamamoto causality tests are also conducted to identify the relationship between unrecorded and recorded GDP.
Findings: This research provides fresh evidence on the size of the UE to the recorded GDP in Turkey which ranges from 10.7% to 18.9% over the estimation period. Moreover, empirical evidence concretely suggests that causality runs from the recorded GDP to the UE. However, there exists a mild reverse causality.
Research limitations/implications: Measures of the UE, and particularly those based on monetary approaches, have been criticized on several accounts, including their lack of robustness and weak theoretical foundations (e.g. the velocity of money in the recorded economy and in the UE is the same).
Practical implications: The analysis suggests that the UE is pro-cyclical with respect to the recorded GDP. It suggests that the phenomenon of UE is more dangerous when the economy is in expensive phase. Hence, during a positive business cycle it is clearly desirable for government the anti-UE controls should be more effective.
Originality/value: The ARDL approach to estimating the size of UE eliminates criticism that the previous currency demand estimations are based on partial adjustment models. Therefore, our econometric selected cointegration methodology and causality test is an improvement over the existing studies
An Econometric Analysis of Foreign Direct Investment Flows into Turkey from Major Global Regions: 1975-1999
No full textThis paper analyses the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Turkey from four major geographical regions and at aggregate level with a special emphasis on Turkey’s application to the European Union (EU) to become a full member in 1987. In contrast to previous studies this paper divides the inward FDI flows into Turkey from four major trading blocks and estimates separate FDI function for each region in addition to the aggregate FDI function. It is found that Turkey has experienced both “investment creation and diversion” effects as a result of her membership application to the EU in addition to the market size hypothesis. This paper also compares and contrasts the short and long run FDI functions of Turkey by the source of geographical regions and at aggregate level and draws conclusions from there.foreign direct investment, investment creation and diversion, Turkey and the EU, economic integration.
Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments
No full textThis study aims at predicting the most likely winners of international football tournaments. To this end, this paper employs a relatively simple statistical method, which is based on the seasonal coefficients of variation (CVs) of the end-of-season points from domestic football leagues to measure the degree of competitive balance and to use it as a comparative indicator between the contesting countries in international football tournaments. The seasonal CV values computed from over ten seasons of the top division final standings of participating countries of Euro 2000 and 2004 football tournaments were utilized to predict the outcome of these football tournaments. The results based on the short, mid and long-term seasonal CV values suggest that this forecasting approach provides significantly reliable results in the case of Euro 2000 but not in the case of Euro 2004.Competitive balance, Football, Ranking, UEFA, Sports forecasts.
A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey
No full textThis study attempts to examine empirically dynamic causal relationships between aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1968-2008. This research tests the interrelationships between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds test results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables in which the dependent variable is aggregate output. Within this study, three competing sets of hypotheses regarding the relationship between aggregate output, exports and energy consumption are tested. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from labour, capital, exports and energy consumption to aggregate output. In the short-run, two important bilateral causalities were identified: between energy consumption and aggregate output, between exports and aggregate output. The short-run causality testing reveals further the existence of a unilateral causality running from exports to energy consumption too. The long-run relationship of aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour equation is also checked for the parameter stability. The results also provide some important policy recommendations.Aggregate output; energy consumption; capital; labour; cointegration; Granger causality; stability tests; Turkey
The J-curve dynamics of Turkey: an application of ARDL model
No full textThis article seeks an empirical evidence for the existence of the J-curve phenomenon both in the short-run and long-run for Turkey over the period 1980-2005. The bounds testing cointegration approach is employed to estimate the trade balance model. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented between trade balance, real effective exchange rates, foreign income and domestic income. The stability of the short-run as well as long-run coefficients in the trade balance model is tested too. The empirical results that the J-curve phenomenon is supported only in the short-run. Whilst causality tests reveal mix results, the parameter stability tests seem to be inconclusive.
A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey
No full textThis study attempts to examine empirically dynamic causal relationships between aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour in the case of Turkey using the time series data for the period 1968-2008.
This research tests the interrelationships between the variables using the bounds testing to cointegration procedure. The bounds test results indicate that there exists a long-run relationship between the variables in which the dependent variable is aggregate output. Within this study, three competing sets of hypotheses regarding the relationship between aggregate output, exports and energy consumption are tested. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is conducted amongst the variables. In the long-run, causality runs interactively through the error correction term from labour, capital, exports and energy consumption to aggregate output. In the short-run, two important bilateral causalities were identified: between energy consumption and aggregate output, between exports and aggregate output. The short-run causality testing reveals further the existence of a unilateral causality running from exports to energy consumption too. The long-run relationship of aggregate output, energy consumption, exports, capital and labour equation is also checked for the parameter stability. The results also provide some important policy recommendations
Determinants of Suicides in Denmark: Evidence from Time Series Data
No full textThis research examines empirically the determinants of suicides in Denmark over the period 1970-2006. To our knowledge, there exist no previous study that estimates a dynamic econometric model of suicides on the basis of time series data and cointegration framework at disaggregate level. Our results indicate that suicide is associated with a range of socio-economic factors but the strength of the association can differ by gender. In particular, we find that a rise in real per capita income and fertility rate decreases suicides for males and females. Divorce is positively associated with suicides and this effect seems to be stronger for men. A fall in unemployment rates seems to lower significantly suicides in males and females. Policy implications of suicides are discussed with some appropriate recommendations.Suicide, Denmark, Time Series, Cointegration
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: SOME EVIDENCE FROM ACROSS THE WORLD
No full textThis study is concerned about foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth across the world for the period of 1991-2001. This article produces fresh empirical evidence on the relation between FDI and economic growth obtained from single-equation and simultaneous equation estimates for 140 countries using macro economic variables. The results indicate that a positive and statistically significant estimate of coefficient of FDI is obtained from single equation ordinary least squares method for real per-capita GDP regressions in all but one case. There exists a positive and statistically significant relation between the real per-capita GDP and FDI in the case of many countries but correlation coefficient between exports-GDP ratio and percentage FDI is found to be insignificant. Country risk rating and the telecommunications variables are significant in all the relevant regressions and correlation estimates
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