1,721,011 research outputs found
How do equity analysts' forecasts affect market returns?
No full textStock returns forecasting is one of the major tasks of financial analysts. Equity analysts’ forecasts, on the other hand, are one of the major sources of information used by less informed investors in their asset allocation decisions. Therefore, analysing which major factors affect the time series of stock returns could shed light on the price revelation process in capital markets. In this paper we propose a model aimed at predicting the stock market by combining both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors. We first develop a standard multivariate regression model with multiple macroeconomic factors as regressors. We then extend the model by explicitly including a measure for firm intrinsic equity value, based upon a proxy derived by weighted average stock market consensus forecasts by equity analysts. Third, we complete the model by imposing an ARMA specification for the error term, which enables identification of stock returns’ stationarity over time. The resulting model shows both a robust fitting capability when tested in the in-sample period and a good predictive capability when applied to an out-of-sample period of monthly Italian stock market returns. In particular, we employed specific estimation procedures based upon recently-developed statistics aimed at testing both for equal predictive ability and forecast encompassing. As a major empirical finding, our model suggests that the information conveyed by analysts’ forecasts is indeed a factor in determining future stock prices, even if there is the possibility that the information transferred could be biased
Drivers of regional efficiency differentials in Italy: technical inefficiency or allocative distortions?
Full text linkThis paper estimates regional economic efficiency differentials at the firm level in the Italian manufacturing sector over the period 1998-2003. We implement an input distance function approach providing measures of both technical inefficiency and allocative distortions in the choice of input mixes. Our results confirm the substantial technical efficiency gap suffered by firms located in Southern regions, thus providing empirical support to the “structural and technological gap” interpretation of the Italian dualism. On the other hand, allocative distortions in the use of inputs show less remarkable regional differences. As for policy implications, our results suggest the need for a re-allocation of public resources for development policies from business incentives measures towards public investments.Technical and allocative efficiency, Input distance function, Development policies
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Variations on the Author
Full text link“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Appropriate Similarity Measures for Author Cocitation Analysis
Full text linkWe provide a number of new insights into the methodological discussion about author cocitation analysis. We first argue that the use of the Pearson correlation for measuring the similarity between authors’ cocitation profiles is not very satisfactory. We then discuss what kind of similarity measures may be used as an alternative to the Pearson correlation. We consider three similarity measures in particular. One is the well-known cosine. The other two similarity measures have not been used before in the bibliometric literature. Finally, we show by means of an example that our findings have a high practical relevance.information science;Pearson correlation;cosine;similarity measure;author cocitation analysis
Metrics for driving political economy of energy and growth
Full text linkEnergy metrics is the development of a whole new theoretical framework for the conception and measurement of energy and economic performances, energy efficiency and productivity improvements with important political economy implications consistent with the best use of all natural and economic resources. The purpose of this research is to present some vital energy indicators based on magnitude and scale of energy weakness, GDP per barrel that is an indicator of energy productivity and barrels per capita that is an indicator of energy efficiency. Energy metrics can support policy maker to monitor energy system of countries in order to design effective strategy and political economy focused to increase the competitive advantage of countries in modern economies.Energy metrics, Energy productivity, Energy efficiency, Energy systems
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
Full text linkWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
koamabayili/VECTRON-author-checklist: VECTRON author checklist
No full textWe have done our best to complete the author checklist relating to the use of animals in the hut study. Note that the objective for the hut study was to evaluate the IRS treatment applications for residual efficacy against Anopheles mosquitoes, including the local An. coluzzii mosquito population. Cows were only used to attract mosquitoes into the huts and no tests were carried out directly on the cows. The author checklist is intended for use with studies where experiments are carried out on animals, which is why we have had such difficulty in completing this for the hut study, as many of the questions do not relate to how the cows were used
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