219 research outputs found
Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: A comparison of time series and neural network models taking external regressors into account
No full textThe amount of renewable energies in electricity production has increased significantly in the last decade, resulting in more variability of the day-ahead electricity spot price. The Electricity Price Forecast (EPF) has to adapt to the new situation by applying flexible models. However, the numerous available forecasting methods differ widely, with no distinct candidate offering the best solution. Against this background, we conduct a comparative study of four different approaches to forecasting the German day-ahead electricity spot price. In addition to the prominent Seasonal Integrated Auto-Regressive Moving Average model ((S)ARIMA(X)) and the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network models, we employ a Convolutional Neural Network LSTM (CNN-LSTM) and an extended two-stage multivariate Vector Auto-Regressive model (VAR) approach as hybrid models. For better performance, we include common external influences such as the consumer load, fuel and CO2 emission prices, average solar radiation and wind speed in our analysis. We analyse hourly data for twelve samples from October 2017 to September 2018. Each model is implemented to deliver price forecasts at three horizons, i.e., one day, seven days and thirty days ahead. While the LSTM model achieves the best forecasting performance on average, the two-stage VAR follows closely behind and performs exceedingly well for shorter prediction horizons. Further, we provide evidence that a combination of both forecasting methods outperforms each of the single models. This indicates that combining advanced methods could lead to further improvements in electricity spot price forecasts.10
Exploring the Role of Stakeholder Dynamics in Residential Photovoltaic Adoption Decisions : A Synthesis of the Literature
No full textFunding: Fabian Scheller kindly acknowledges the financial support support of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 713683 (COFUNDfellowsDTU). Isabel Doser received funding from the project SUSIC (Smart Utilities and Sustainable Infrastructure Change) with the project number 1722 0710. This study is financed by the Saxon State government out of the State budget approved by the Saxon State Parliament Acknowledgments: For valuable feedback, the authors wish to thank the anonymous reviewer and the associate editor.Peer reviewe
Deep Brain Stimulation of the VIM for Tremor in a Patient with POLR3A-Associated Cerebellar Syndrome Without Long-Term Benefit
No full textScolopendrellopsis persicus Scheller, n. sp.
No full textScolopendrellopsis persicus Scheller n. sp. Figs 1 –7 Type locality. Iran, Esfahan Province, Shareza, 32 ˚ 0 3 ʹ 43.79 ʺN 51 ˚ 50 ʺ 33.61 ʺE. Type specimen. Holotype. ad(Ƥ),, 12 Mars 2009, leg. M.R. Kavianpour. - 1 specimen. Diagnosis. S. persicus n. sp. may be closest to the wide-spread S. subnuda (Hansen, 1903) but the new species has fewer head setae and thinner central rod. Good distinguishing characters are the shape of the central rod of the head, very thin in S. persicus, distinct in S. subnuda, the shape of the post-antennal organs, ovoid in S. persicus, not subspherical, the shape of the posterior appendages of the tergites II and III, more slender in S. persicus than in S. subnuda and the cerci are more setose in S. persicus than in S. subnuda. Derivation of name. From the Latin persicus = Persian (referring to the position of the collecting site). Description (by first author). Length. 1.55 mm. Head. Longish, 1.4 times as long as broad, with broadest part at articulation points of the mandibles, which are concealed under margins of head. Posterior part of central rod thin but distinct, 1.1 times as long as much thinner anterior part; frontal and median branches lacking. Dorsal side of head sparsely setose, setae thin, short, of subequal length. Diameter of post-antennal organ 0.5 of greatest diameter of 3 rd antennal segment, entrance tube very short. Palp of first maxilla bud-like with one point only, 1.7 times as long as the greatest diameter. Cuticle of central and posterior part of dorsal side of the head almost glabrous, anterolateral part between post-antennal organ and margin of head with rounded granules. Antennae. 0.1 of the length of the body, both 16 segments. First segment cylindrical, thinner than following segments, 1.1 times as long as greatest diameter; setae in one whorl, inner setae longer than outer ones, longest seta ¼ of the length of the greatest segment diameter. Second segment about as long as wide with seven setae evenly spaced around the segment, inner setae distinctly longer than outer setae. Chaetotaxy of 3 rd segment as on preceding one. Setae longest on proximal segments, longest of them ~ 3 times longer than longest setae on distal segments. Proximal and median parts of the antennae with only primary whorl of setae, a secondary whorl in median and subdistal part but never complete. Circular sensory organs on dorsal side of segments 11 and 12, bladder-shaped organs on segments 13-15; small spined organs on dorsal side (but most of them hidden under foreign particles). Apical segment subspherical with wide connection to preceding segment. All segments with short pubescence. Trunk. Twenty-one dorsal tergites and subtergites. 1 st tergite rudimentary with 6 thin setae in one transversal row. 2 nd tergite entire complete, broader than long, with two narrow posterior extensions, these about as long as the tergite; tergite almost glabrous, short pubescence on margins of the posterior extensions. Anterior part with 8 setae, each extension with one apical seta only. 3 rd tergite entire but with anterolateral indentations; anterior part with 6 setae in a transversal row, posterior part with two posteriorly directed extensions, these 2.5 times as long as the breadth at base, length 0.6 of interdistance; posterior part with an anterior transversal row of setae and three setae in connection with the extensions as on preceding segment. Thirteen tergites with paired posterior extensions, the latter longest on anterior tergites, length of extensions 0.3 of interdistance on tergite XIV. No seta between apical and inner basal setae. Tergites almost glabrous. Anterolateral setae not larger than other setae. Legs. First pair of legs short, 3 -segmented: tarsus about as broad as long with two almost straight claws, at least three short setae, pubescence indistinct. Tarsus of last pair of legs 2.6 times as long as greatest diameter, four dorsal setae, long protruding, longest seta as long as the greatest diameter of tarsus, two shorter ventral setae distally: anterior claw longest and with broader base than posterior claw, the former 1.2 times as long as the latter and as long as the diameter of tarsus. Tibia 1.3 times as long as wide with at least three setae. All legs with sparse but distinct pubescence. Habitat. Garden with pomegranate trees and grape vines, in soil.Published as part of Scheller, Ulf, Kavianpour, Mohammad Reza & Esfandiari, Mehdi, 2011, First record of Symphyla (Myriapoda) from Iran, with description of a new species in Scolopendrellopsis (Scolopendrellidae), pp. 66-68 in Zootaxa 3041 on pages 66-68, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20233
A Review of a Book by Barbara Alicja Jańczak entitled Deutsch-polnische Familien: Ihre Sprachen und Familienkulturen in Deutschland und in Polen (Sprache – Kultur – Gesellschaft, Beiträge zu einer anwendungsbezogenen Sozio- und Ethnolinguistik. Vol. 11). Frankfurt am Main et al., 2013: Peter Lang Verlag. ISBN: 978-3-631-62525-5, 270 pages
No full textDennis Scheller-Boltz, a well-known and acknowledged German slavist, carries out an extensive and in-depth discussion of the monograph written by Barbara Alicja Jańczak entitled Deutsch-polnische Familien: Ihre Sprachen und Familienkulturen in Deutschland und in Polen [German-Polish families: languages and family cultures in Germany and Poland]. The reviewer rightly emphasizes the novelty, relevance and accuracy of the work as well as the fact that it takes a wide range of aspects into consideration, including not only linguistic but also, among others, sociological and cultural aspects of the examined matter. The reviewer draws our attention to the fact that the conclusions the author of the monograph reaches are based on reliable and up to date sources of information such as Główny Urząd Statystyczny [the Central Statistical Office of Poland] and Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland [The Federal Statistical Office of Germany]. The form and the organization of the monograph, which in a transparent manner – using a well-constructed, lucid tables and figures – provides the reader with the great abundance of information, are, according to the reviewer, highly commendable
Modeling and Optimizing of Integrated Multi-Modal Energy Systems for Municipal Energy Utilities
No full textThe development of sustainable business models is a challenging task since various factors might influence the results of an assessment. Given the complexity at the municipal level, system interdependencies between different alternatives need to be considered. One possibility to support decision makers is to apply energy system optimization models. Existing optimization models, however, ignore the roles different actors play and the resulting impact they have.
To address this research issue, this thesis presents an integrated techno-economic optimization framework called IRPopt (Integrated Resource Planning and Optimization). A proven graph-based energy system approach allows the accurate modeling of deployment systems by considering different energy carriers and technical processes. In addition, a graph-based commercial association approach enables the integration of actor-oriented coordination. This is achieved by the explicit modeling of market actors on one layer and technology processes on another layer as well as resource flow interrelations and commercial agreements mechanism among and between the different layers. Using the optimization framework, various optimization problems are solvable on the basis of a generic objective function.
For demonstration purposes, this thesis assesses the business models demand response and community storage. The applied examples demonstrate the modeling capabilities of the developed optimization framework. Further, the dispatch results show the usefulness of the described optimization approach
The future demand of renewable fuels in Germany - Understanding the impact of electrification levels and socio-economic developments
No full textThe Climate Change Act recently enacted in Germany highlights the urgency of understanding the future demand for renewable fuels. In this study, we combine technological progress and socio-economic pathways in an energy system analysis to assess future renewable fuel demands in Germany. We apply the whole-system optimisation model, TIMES, to investigate transition pathways with varying electrification levels and socio-economic developments. The results show that renewable fuels demand varies between 388 PJ and 1310 PJ depending on the electrification rates. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that considering socio-economicaspects and behavioural change, as represented by different Shared-Socio-economic Pathways, can significantly alter the demand for renewable fuels within a narrower yet still noteworthy range compared to the electrification scenarios. This provides country-level evidence highlighting the often-overlooked influence of social developments on demand projections. Consequently, it becomes crucial to prioritize the consideration of the climate mitigation potential arising fromsocioeconomic-induced changes in demand patterns within the broader framework of energyefficiency measures
MA040 Krieg in China / [hrsg. von Ernst Schneller]
No full text著者は奥付による / Author from colophon15 p. ; 23 c
MA040 Krieg in China / [hrsg. von Ernst Schneller]
No full text著者は奥付による / Author from colophon15 p. ; 23 cmboo
Law and economics of the monetary union
No full textThe European Monetary Union euro has done very well since its initiation. Price stability has been secured and the external value of the new currency is more than satisfactory. The confidence in it is also shown by its increasing use as a global reserve currency. It has been a stabilizing factor in the current crisis. The recent budgetary problems of some member states are principally not a problem of the Monetary Union. It is therefore in no way justified to speak of a "Euro-crisis". It is true, however, that the Monetary Union restricts the number of possibilities for member states to solve their financial problems but it does not eliminate them entirely that outside help would have become indispensible. The purchase of debt instruments of member states in financial distress by the ECB is questionable from an economic, and more important, from a legal point of view. The longer the duration, the less legally justifiable is it. Financial support for member states in severe financial distress might be acceptable as a temporary crisis resolution mechanism. A permanent support mechanism needs a basis in the primary law of the EU. The treatment of the risk of "sovereign" debt in the legal framework for financial institutions urgently needs improvement. Especially the capital requirements for credit institutions have to be adjusted
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