1,720,970 research outputs found
An application of Real Option Analysis for the assessment of operative flexibility in the urban redevelopment
No full textThe high variability of market prices and the uncertainty that, even in restrained timeframes, is characterizing the general economic situation, have led real estate operators to a prudent attitude, who tend to postpone or at least stagger the start of the initiatives on hold of more stable conditions. In this context it is appropriate to use evaluation tools enable to enhance the investment capacity to be adapted to possible changes of the conditions initially hypothesized. In the present research Real Options Analysis (ROA) is applied to the evaluation of an investment in urban redevelopment of a former industrial complex. The result obtained shows the efficacy of the instrument. Assuming that the entrepreneur considers affordable the implementation of the initiative if the outcome of the discounted cash flow analysis is at least equal to a threshold value calculated as a percentage of revenues, the application of ROA returns an extended NPV that meets this constraint, whereas the use of traditional NPV suggest to abandon the project idea. The binomial approach used also allows to accurately monitor the project's development, correlating it to the evolution of the market
Companies in liquidation A model for the assessment of the value of used machinery
No full textThe current economic crisis is creating serious global effects on the real economy, especially in terms of solvency and economic stability of many companies, forced to interrupt their activities and to initiate bankruptcy proceedings. In this case, the assessment of the value of the industrial machinery that can be reused is a problem that often arises. In the literature different approaches to estimate plant and industrial machinery are illustrated. Each method includes several specification and, in practice, only in exceptional cases, there are consistent data for comparison. The major problem consists in the identification and the valuation of the level of depreciation which intervenes in the definition of the value of used industrial machinery. In the present work an algorithm to determine in a rational manner the depreciation of used industrial machinery has developed. The procedure has its theoretical basis in the analysis of formal deductions of the value of new machinery. The model defined in this research considers the factors that contribute to decrease the original value of the machinery. Empirical formulas have been developed to estimate the market value of used industrial machinery on the basis of quantitative and qualitative analysis of depreciation functions. The interpretation and schematization of the results have led to the definition of value-time curves for the three main depreciation factors (age, income decay, obsolescence). The result is a flexible model for the evaluation of different types of machinery and a simply procedure, with a reduced number of variables to be taken into consideration. The paper must be attributed in equal parts to the three authors
Economic relationships between selling and rental prices in the Italian housing market
No full textIn this paper the relationship between price and
rent dynamics in the Italian housing market is studied. The aim is
reached through the implementation of a multivariate
autoregressive model (VAR), that makes it possible to explain the
interdependencies of multiple time series. The analysis considers
a series of macroeconomic variables in the model that in the
deductive interpretation of the phenomenon and on the basis of
other experiences in current literature, were evaluated as
potential keys to understanding the relationship between prices
and rents. The variables selected, along with residential realestate
prices and real residential rents, were: the real short term
interest rate, the time series of the annual differences between the
actual and the expected Gross Domestic Product, real
investments in housing. The data series cover the period from
1980 to 2008. The results obtained show some peculiarities of the
Italian real estate market
A model to support decision for the valorization of public properties in disuse or underutilized
No full textWith reference to the process of valorization of public properties in progress in many European
countries, this paper develops an evaluation model to support decisions of Public Administrations involved in
the identification of the best modality of enhancement (concession and lease or sale) of public properties in
disuse and/or underutilized. Although the model can be applied to any type of public property, the research is
focused on religious cultural buildings, that are common both in big cities and in smaller towns. The
assumption underlying the model is that, since the properties considered are complex buildings, generally
characterized by large dimensions, the form of bilateral monopoly market is always verified. The result is a
model of simple use, exportable in any territorial context. The paper must be attributed in equal parts to the
author
Caprate Beta 1.0 - disponibile online su www.e-stimo.it (ISSN 2037-7061)
No full textSoftware on-line per la stima del saggio di capitalizzazione.
Gli autori implementano una procedura di valutazione del saggio che elimina l’incertezza insita nell’approccio indiretto, trasformandola in rischio. L’obiettivo è perseguito combinando le logiche di base del modello finanziario di Ellwood e dell’Analisi delle Opzioni Reali (ROA). Specificamente, lo schema di investimento immobiliare del modello di Ellwood, dato dalla sequenza dei ricavi e dei costi finanziari attinenti al periodo di disponibilità dell’immobile, è combinato con l’analisi di rischio della ROA. Questa, come noto, consente di tracciare il trend evolutivo del valore dell’investimento e di individuare l’anno nel quale risulta conveniente recuperare il capitale iniziale (ossia rivendere il bene).
La verifica dell’affidabilità del modello (implementato tramite il software esclusivamente sui capoluoghi di provincia italiani) è avvenuta con l’applicazione dello stesso ad oltre cinquecento casi studio relativi al territorio nazionale.
I prodromi teorici dell’algoritmo sotteso all’applicazione del software sono divulgati nel lavoro «La valutazione del rischio nell’analisi finanziaria di Ellwood per la stima indiretta di immobili urbani» (Aestimum 55, Dicembre 2009, pagg. 19-41), elaborato dagli autori in collaborazione con Pierluigi Moran
Come le variabili macroeconomiche influenzano il mercato immobiliare italiano
No full textThis paper aims to analyze the influence of the economic system on housing market price trends in Italy. For this research it is used a Vector Autoregression Model (VAR). In this econometric model, the historic series of house prices from 1970 to 2008 and historic series of some macroeconomic variables, defined through empirical evidences of similar studies carried out in an international setting, are introduced. The saving is added to the variables most frequently used in econometric tests – inflation, stock market prices, interest rate. This variable traditionally affects the purchase decision process of Italian households when they buy a property for personal usage or as investment. The reliability of the model developed is a consequence of the coherence between good statistical results and behavioural and institutional relations, ensued from economic theory
Un modello di gestione per la valorizzazione di immobili pubblici extraordinari
No full textNel lavoro si propone un modello di gestione del patrimonio pubblico inquadrabile nell’ambito del Public-Private Partnerships ed applicabile a immobili oggetto di una possibile valorizzazione attraverso una riqualificazione e/o modifica della destinazione d’uso. La logica sviluppata si struttura in un algoritmo che mutua gli strumenti matematici della Ricerca Operativa per l’individuazione della soluzione che massimizza le funzioni di utilità delle parti interessate alla rifunzionalizzazione e gestione di un bene pubblico. Le incognite del modello sono il prezzo e il periodo di concessione, mentre i vincoli riflettono le specifiche e reciproche convenienze degli attori coinvolti. Il contributo presentato prevede un approccio strategico con prospettive di lungo termine, che interpreta in modo diverso un modello concessorio puro, dotato di maggiore articolazione e flessibilità, ed arricchisce il quadro dei progetti (pubblico-privato) considerati indispensabili per la rifunzionalizzazione del patrimonio immobiliare pubblico e i possibili interventi di trasformazione urbanistica. Ne deriva un percorso logico di supporto alle Pubbliche Amministrazioni impegnate nella valorizzazione del proprio asset immobiliare
Cost-benefit analysis and investment risk assessment. threshold values according to the alarp logic
No full textFor investments in the civil sector, the paper proposes a risk assessment model that introduces risk acceptability and tolerability thresholds according to the As Low As Reasonably Practicable (ALARP) logic. The idea is to use the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) because it is able to associate return limit values, and therefore risk, to the project. The joint use of the CAPM and statistical survey tools leads to the estimation of investment risk thresholds on objective data, depending on both the production sector and the reference territory. An application to the building construction sector in Campania Region (Italy) verifies the effectiveness of the model
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