1,721,028 research outputs found
Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse and Global Production Networks: Supply Chains in the Great Recession
Get PDFGlobal supply chains reshaped international trade since the end 1980s. Their role in explaining the trade collapse that followed the financial crisis of September 2008 was determinant. Because production is internationally diversified, adverse external shocks affect firms not only through final demand, but also through a rupture in the flow of inputs received from their suppliers. The future of supply chain will also determine the alternative exit scenarios from the Great Recession; as a result of global rebalancing, they will probably be smaller and more regional. Left unchecked, these centripetal forces may lead to a deterioration of global governance and to deglobalization. The reshaping of global effective demand is of particular importance for the labour abundant lesser advanced developing countries that where relying on the strength of the global supply chains to attract productive investments. On the other hand, because trade in goods for processing inflated artificially some bilateral trade deficit, rebalancing them will prove easier in the short term, while the technical factors that made possible the internationalization of production will still promote further "flattening of the Earth" in the longer terminternational trade; crisis; global supply chains; transmission channels; global rebalancing; trade and development
Old and new dualisms in Latin America and Asia: labour productivity, international competitiveness and income distribution
Get PDFUsing sectoral growth accounting techniques from a structural perspective à la Lewis, the paper analyzes the structural determinants of labour productivity in Asia and Latin America, indicating a contrasted situation between both developing regions. While Asia appears to be engaged in a relatively smooth transition from the low productivity traditional activities to a more industrialized economy, the pattern emerging out of the Latin American data indicates the presence of polarizing forces, and the resurgence of a new dualistic economy. From a systemic perspective, Asia has been progressively closing the productivity gap with industrialised countries, gaining international competitiveness, while Latin America has been losing ground despite advances at the microeconomic level. Two structural trends led to the deterioration of the income distribution in Latin America: strong demand for high qualification workers, pushing up the salary of professionals and technicians (same happened in Asia); and a deficit of job opportunities in the manufacture sector, leading to an excess supply of labour in the services sector and a decline in value added per worker. The emergence of a large urban informal sector in Latin America epitomizes this situation. The structural models used for the analysis suggest also some lines of action for policy making, facilitating resource reallocation from low to high productivity sectors, while limiting spurious inter-sectoral shifts. This text is an unpublished author's translation of the original article "Dualismos antiguos y contemporáneos en América Latina y Asia" Revista Trabajo no.5, año 3, 2007; OIT/UAM México.productivity, sectoral shift-share, transition, income distribution, competitiveness
Measuring trade in value added in the new industrial economy: statistical implications
Get PDFVertical integration of production processes at international level and the resulting fragmentation of the value chains increasingly question the relevance of traditional trade indicators. Intermediate productions are increasingly offshored within these global value chains, giving place to what is known as "trade in tasks". The paper presents some experiences of alternative measures of international trade in terms of the value added generated by this process. The strength with which the concept of value added has imposed itself as the yardstick for the measurement of international trade has very fruitful analytical implications in the context of national accounts. A second part shows how the international statistical system has responded to the obvious risk of obsolescence by launching a series of joint initiatives in order to adapt all the instruments of the statistician’s “tool-box”: classifications, balance of payments and national accounts manuals. Conclusions highlight the remaining challenges, as well as the divergences that persist among the groups of experts in relation to the proposed reforms and their normative and practical impacts.vertical integration; trade in tasks; national accounts
Tendencias y extrapolación del crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe
Get PDFIncluye Bibliografía(*); Hubert Escaith es Director de la División de Estadística y Proyecciones Económicas de la CEPAL.
Las opiniones expresadas en este documento, que no ha sido sometido a revisión editorial, son de exclusiva responsabilidad del autor y pueden no coincidir con las de la Organización.
Resumen
El patrón de crecimiento en los años de la década de 1990 ha sido marcado por una gran volatilidad y la sensación que predomina al inicio de la década de los años 2000 es que el nuevo modelo de desarrollo que surgió de la crisis de la deuda está dando signos de agotamiento, luego de una fase dinámica de crecimiento que culminó en 1997. De hecho, la evolución del producto regional por habitante indicaba que, en 2003, se había cumplido ya seis años de disminución. Las implicaciones económicas y sociales de esta situación son graves, y -si persisten- será necesario revisar y reformar las estrategias de desarrollo puestas en marcha en el último decenio, incorporando políticas sectoriales y sociales más incluyentes.
Para establecer el carácter transitorio o estructural de este patrón de crecimiento económico bajo, este documento analiza las tendencias recientes del crecimiento en América Latina y el Caribe, y formula extrapolaciones plausibles, basándose en diversas opciones metodológicas. Luego de una introducción, se estudian las tendencias subyacentes del producto interno bruto en el ámbito regional y subregional. La tercera sección presenta una estimación del producto potencial, considerado como el producto máximo alcanzable dado las dotaciones existentes de factores de producción y de la evolución de la inversión y de la población económicamente activa. Los resultados obtenidos se completan con un análisis de la evolución de la eficiencia global de la inversión. En particular, se evalúa en qué medida las reformas estructurales emprendidas a partir de los años 1980 han desembocado en una mejoría de este indicador. Una quinta sección amplía el análisis a las restricciones externas al crecimiento, un flagelo endémico en América Latina. La conclusión sintetiza los principales resultados y delinea algunas de sus implicaciones, en particular en cuanto a los objetivos de lucha contra la pobreza, tal como se reflejan en las metas de la cumbre del Milenio.
De acuerdo con estos resultados, en las circunstancias actuales las posibilidades de los países de mayor pobreza de alcanzar los 7% de crecimiento del PIB necesarios para alcanzar las metas son prácticamente nulas, y el 4.1% de crecimiento necesario para los países con pobreza media parece una meta difícil de alcanzar (excepto en el más favorable de los contexto, donde se cumulan durablemente shocks externos positivos y reactivación del esfuerzo de inversión);. El estudio retoma el papel clave de la dimensión tecnológica y de la productividad en la determinación de la competitividad para recomendar la construcción de una base más propicia para impulsar un crecimiento dinámico y sostenible.
Contenido :
- Introducción
- Estimación de la tendencia del producto interno bruto
a. Dinámica de largo plazo
b. Dinámica de corto plazo
- Factores de producción y PIB potencial
a. Producto potencial total
b. Producto potencial por empleado
c. Relación marginal producto-capital
- Crecimiento potencial y restricciones externas
a. Restricción comercial
b. Las elasticidades de comercio exterior en los años 1990
c. Restricción de capital externo.
- Conclusión
- Bibliografí
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Get PDFThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Old and new dualisms in Latin America and Asia: labour productivity, international competitiveness and income distribution
Get PDFUsing sectoral growth accounting techniques from a structural perspective à la Lewis, the paper analyzes the structural determinants of labour productivity in Asia and Latin America, indicating a contrasted situation between both developing regions. While Asia appears to be engaged in a relatively smooth transition from the low productivity traditional activities to a more industrialized economy, the pattern emerging out of the Latin American data indicates the presence of polarizing forces, and the resurgence of a new dualistic economy. From a systemic perspective, Asia has been progressively closing the productivity gap with industrialised countries, gaining international competitiveness, while Latin America has been losing ground despite advances at the microeconomic level. Two structural trends led to the deterioration of the income distribution in Latin America: strong demand for high qualification workers, pushing up the salary of professionals and technicians (same happened in Asia); and a deficit of job opportunities in the manufacture sector, leading to an excess supply of labour in the services sector and a decline in value added per worker. The emergence of a large urban informal sector in Latin America epitomizes this situation. The structural models used for the analysis suggest also some lines of action for policy making, facilitating resource reallocation from low to high productivity sectors, while limiting spurious inter-sectoral shifts.
This text is an unpublished author's translation of the original article "Dualismos antiguos y contemporáneos en América Latina y Asia" Revista Trabajo no.5, año 3, 2007; OIT/UAM México
Can Latin America fly?: revising the engines of growth
Get PDFIncludes bibliographyHubert Escaith is Director of Statistics and Economic Projections Division. ECLAC The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization. Summary This document analyses the past dynamics and the potential of economic growth in Latin America, using alternative methodological perspectives. Applying them to the regional situation at the end of the 1990-2002 economic cycle, the respective methods are used to review the medium term determinants of growth in the region. This is achieved from the dual standpoints of production function approaches and export-led models, contrasting the particular situation of the principal sub-regions in Latin America. In this process, a series of issues are raised, ranging from the impact of structural reforms on total factor productivity, to the Balance of Payments constraints and the sustainability of the export-led model. Productive capacity in the early years of the 2000 has been debilitated by years of reduced investments, and total factor productivity has not responded positively to the reforms. The observed structural changes in the labour markets point also to an inefficient allocation of the labour force. This negative trend puts an additional constraint on the supply-side forces which, from this perspective, lowers the growth potential of the region. At first glance, it appears that structural reforms did not have the expected beneficial effect on the supply side of the economy, and the diagnostic that concludes the first part of the study is low spirited. When turning to the demand side, the potential for export-led growth appears higher than may have been expected, thanks to a regression-to-trend of the high import elasticity observed during the 1990s. This increases the efficiency of the demand-driven model, and strengthens its macroeconomic sustainability. Comparing the empirical outcome of various theoretical schools and methodologies, the study determines a set of plausible economic scenarios for the region, and concludes by highlighting some economic policy conditions for strengthening its growth potential and ensure being in a better position to seize the opportunities offered by external markets. The results obtained from the empirical investigation point, inter alia, at the role of exchange rate in determining short-term competitiveness. On the supply side, structural policies should look at strengthening this external competitiveness by increasing the rate of incorporation of technical progress, particularly in the tradable sectors
Mapping the UK domestic and global value chains from a Brexit perspective
Get PDFThe paper offers background information for a sectoral analysis of the Brexit implications on the UK value chains. It analyses trade data through the specific angle of inter-industrial relation-ships and international supply chains, including employment implications. The paper benchmarks UK against other key G-20 countries for three specific industries that have a particular relevance from an inter-industrial perspective: Transport equipment, Chemicals and Electronics. In the pro-cess, a number of stylised facts are identified and several synthetic indicators are produced. Be-cause a hard Brexit is expected to increase trade costs and affect prices, the paper estimates the impact of additional tariff and non-tariff trade costs on the competitiveness of these three sectors. Hopes that a devaluation of the Pound may compensate for higher trade costs must take into con-sideration that devaluation affects only the domestic share of the value-added, requiring larger exchange rate adjustment. In the case of Transport equipment, the required devaluation is around 30% if all tariff and non-tariff trade costs are passed to the producers
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