1,721,046 research outputs found
A retrospective on J.D. Sargan and his contribution to Econometrics
No full textThis retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised - students were a substantive facet of his profesional life. Finally, two of Denis' previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print
A Retrospective of J. Denis Sargan and his contributions to econometrics
No full textThis retrospective provides a biographical history of Denis Sargan's career and reviews his contributions to econometrics, emphasizing the breadth of his work in both theoretical and applied econometrics. We include a complete bibliography for Denis and a list of PhD theses that he supervised--students were a substantive facet of his professional life. Finally, two of Denis's previously unpublished manuscripts on model building now appear in print
Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis
Full text linkThis overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general, and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas critique, equation inversion, and impulse response analysis. A small money-demand model for the United Kingdom illustrates the main analytical points. This article then summarizes the other articles in this issue's special section on exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis
Understanding economic forecasts
No full textNine articles, originally presented at the Annual Festival of Science at the University of Sheffield in September 1999, explain new developments in economic forecasting. Papers examine how economists forecast (David F. Hendry); economic modeling for fun and profit (Paul Turner); making sense of published economic forecasts (Diane Coyle); forecast uncertainty in economic modeling (Neil R. Ericsson); evaluation of forecasts (Clive W. J. Granger); forecasting and the UK business cycle (Denise R. Osborn, Marianne Sensier, and Paul W. Simpson); modeling and forecasting at the Bank of England (Neal Hatch); forecasting the world economy (Ray Barrell); and the costs of forecast errors (Terence Burns). Hendry is Professor of Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford University. Ericsson is a staff economist at the Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board. Author and subject indexes
Understanding economic forecasts
No full textNine articles, originally presented at the Annual Festival of Science at the University of Sheffield in September 1999, explain new developments in economic forecasting. Papers examine how economists forecast (David F. Hendry); economic modeling for fun and profit (Paul Turner); making sense of published economic forecasts (Diane Coyle); forecast uncertainty in economic modeling (Neil R. Ericsson); evaluation of forecasts (Clive W. J. Granger); forecasting and the UK business cycle (Denise R. Osborn, Marianne Sensier, and Paul W. Simpson); modeling and forecasting at the Bank of England (Neal Hatch); forecasting the world economy (Ray Barrell); and the costs of forecast errors (Terence Burns). Hendry is Professor of Economics at Nuffield College, Oxford University. Ericsson is a staff economist at the Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board. Author and subject indexes
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
Full text linkThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
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