161,158 research outputs found
Forecasting age-specific breast cancer mortality using functional data models
No full textAccurate estimates of future age-specific incidence and mortality are critical for allocation of resources to breast cancer control programs and evaluation of screening programs. The purpose of this study is to apply functional data analysis techniques to model age-specific breast cancer mortality time trends, and forecast entire age-specific mortality function using a state-space approach. We use yearly unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates in Australia, from 1921 to 2001 in 5 year age groups (45 to 85+). We use functional data analysis techniques where mortality and incidence are modeled as curves with age as a functional covariate varying by time. Data is smoothed using nonparametric smoothing methods then decomposed (using principal components analysis) to estimate basis functions that represent the functional curve. Period effects from the fitted functions are forecast then multiplied by the basis functions, resulting in a forecast mortality curve with prediction intervals. To forecast, we adopt a state-space approach and an extension of the Pegels modeling framework for selecting among exponential smoothing methods. Overall, breast cancer mortality rates in Australia remained relatively stable from 1960 to the late 1990's but declined over the last few years. A set of K=4 basis functions minimized the mean integrated squared forecasting error (MISFE) and accounts for 99.3% of variation around the mean mortality curve. 20 year forecast suggest a continual decline at a slower rate and stabilize beyond 2010 and by age, forecasts show a decline in all age groups with the greatest decline in older women. We illustrate the utility of a new modelling and forecasting approach to model breast cancer mortality rates using a functional model of age. The methods have the potential to incorporate important covariates such as Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) and interventions to represent mammographic screening. This would be particularly useful for evaluating the impact of screening on mortality and incidence from breast cancer.Mortality, Breast Cancer, Forecasting, Functional Data Analysis, Exponential Smoothing
Variations on the Author
No full text“Variations on the Author” discusses two of Eduardo Coutinho’s recent films (Um Dia na Vida, from 2010, and Últimas Conversas, posthumously released in 2015) and their contribution to the general question of documentary authorship. The director’s filmography is characterized by a consistent yet self-effacing form of authorial self-inscription: Coutinho often features as an interviewer that rather than express opinions propels discourses; an interviewer that is good at listening. This mode of self-inscription characterizes him as an author who is not expressive but who is nonetheless markedly present on the screen. In Um Dia na Vida, however, Coutinho is completely absent form the image, while Últimas Conversas, on the contrary, includes a confessional prologue that moves the director from the margins to the center of his films. This article examines the ways in which these works stand out in the filmography of a director who offers new insights into the notion of cinematic authorship
Which patients are able to adhere to tuberculosis treatment? A study in a rural area in the northwest part of Turkey
No full textThe purpose of this study was to investigate various factors, including demographical, socioeconomical, clinical and radiological features, of adherent and nonadherent patients with tuberculosis (TB) who were admitted to a university hospital between 1998 and 2003. One hundred and one patients (65.5%) and 53 patients (34.5%) met the criteria of adherence and nonadherence, respectively. A higher rate of adherence was observed among females than males (79.2 versus 58.4%, respectively, P = 0.012). Older patients were more nonadherent (P = 0.008). The adherence rate in non-smokers was significantly higher than that of smokers (81.4 and 52.4%, respectively, P = 0.000). Patients who underwent "family screening" were more adherent (75.7%) than those (39.5%) who did not (P = 0.000). Patients with pleurisy had higher adherence rates (81.3%), followed by patients with pulmonary TB (65.0%), while patients with extrarespiratory TB had the lowest adherence rates (45.5%) (P = 0.024). The presence of cough was significantly associated with adherence (P = 0.049). A significantly higher adherence rate was observed in patients without hemoptysis (P = 0.001). A univariate logistic regression confirmed that age, smoking, family screening, type of TB, cough and hemoptysis had significant independent effects on the adherence to treatment of TB. High-risk patients may be identified and interventions tailored to promote adherence before concluding that the patient is willfully refusing treatment
Going Beyond Counting First Authors in Author Co-citation Analysis
No full textThe present study examines one of the fundamental aspects of author co-citation analysis (ACA) - the way co-citation
counts are defined. Co-citation counting provides the data on which all subsequent statistical analyses and mappings
are based, and we compare ACA results based on two different types of co-citation counting - the traditional type that
only counts the first one among a cited work's authors on the one hand and a non-traditional type that takes into
account the first 5 authors of a cited work on the other hand. Results indicate that the picture produced through this non-traditional author co-citation counting contains more coherent author groups and is therefore considerably clearer. However, this picture represents fewer specialties in the research field being studied than that produced through the traditional first-author co-citation counting when the same number of top-ranked authors is selected and analyzed. Reasons for these effects are discussed
Larry O. Spencer, Conference Author Presentation
No full textGen. Larry O. Spencer, USAF (Ret.), author of Dark Horse: A Journey from the Horseshoe to the Pentago
Dispelling the Myths Behind First-author Citation Counts
No full textWe conducted a full-scale evaluative citation analysis study of scholars in the XML research field to explore just how different from each other author rankings resulting from different citation counting methods actually are, and to demonstrate the capability of emerging data and tools on the Web in supporting more realistic citation counting methods. Our results contest some common arguments for the continued
use of first-author citation counts in the evaluation of scholars, such as high correlations between author rankings by first-author citation counts and other citation
counting methods, and high costs of using more realistic citation counting methods that are not well-supported by the ISI databases. It is argued that increasingly available digital full text research papers make it possible for citation analysis studies to go beyond what the ISI databases have directly supported and to employ more
sophisticated methods
Forecasting age-related changes in breast cancer mortality among white and black US women: A functional approach
No full textThe disparity in breast cancer mortality rates among white and black US women is widening with higher mortality rates among black women. We apply functional time series models on age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for each group of women, and forecast their mortality curves using exponential smoothing state-space models with damping. The data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program of the US (SEER, 2007). Mortality data were obtained from the National Centre for Health Statistics (NCHS) available on the SEER*Stat database. We use annual unadjusted breast cancer mortality rates from 1969 to 2004 in 5-year age groups (45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84). Age-specific mortality curves were obtained using nonparametric smoothing methods. The curves are then decomposed using functional principal components and we fit functional time series models with four basis functions for each population separately. The curves from each population are forecast and prediction intervals are calculated. Twenty-year forecasts indicate an over-all decline in future breast cancer mortality rates for both groups of women. This decline is steeper among white women aged 55-73 and black women aged 60-84. For black women under 55 years of age, the forecast rates are relatively stable indicating no significant change in future breast cancer mortality rates among young black women in the next 20 years.Breast cancer mortality, racial and ethnic disparities, screening, trends, forecasting, functional data analysis
Author Under Sail The Imagination of Jack London, 1902-1907
No full textIn this second volume of Author Under Sail Jay Williams investigates the life of Jack London as a professional writer at the turn of the 1900s, as his publications spanned The Call of the Wild to The Iron Heel and The Road. While documenting key life events, especially his rising fame, this biography explores London's necessity to illustrate the inner workings of his own vast imagination through his socialist essays and fiction.Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- Acknowledgments -- Introduction -- 1. Howl, O Heav'nly Muse! -- 2. Jesus in the Theater of Socialism -- 3. Jack London's Place in American Literature -- 4. Theater of War, Theater at Home -- 5. Revolution, Evolution, and the Scene of Writing -- 6. The Jack London Show Goes on the Road -- 7. Red Atavisms and Revolution -- 8. Earthquake Apocalypse and Building the City, Boat, and House Beautiful -- 9. The Future of Socialism and the Death of the Individual -- 10. The Road Never Ends -- Notes -- Bibliography -- IndexIn this second volume of Author Under Sail Jay Williams investigates the life of Jack London as a professional writer at the turn of the 1900s, as his publications spanned The Call of the Wild to The Iron Heel and The Road. While documenting key life events, especially his rising fame, this biography explores London's necessity to illustrate the inner workings of his own vast imagination through his socialist essays and fiction.Description based on publisher supplied metadata and other sources.Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, Michigan : ProQuest Ebook Central, YYYY. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ProQuest Ebook Central affiliated libraries
اسلم کولسری کی غزل:بیان و بدیع کے تناظر میں: ASLAM KOLSARY’S GHAZAL IN THE LIGHT OF BIAN-O-BADIE
No full textAslam kolsari is new significant and potentially well-known personality for contributing to modern Urdu ghazal. Being a mindful and multidimensional literary figure he has specific fame in poetry. A distinguish diction in poetry is individuality specifically connected with his name. His ghazal contains all attributes of Research and criticism. Communication of an ordinary concept in his poetry is reflection of Aslam kolasri. In this article the author has explored how poetic characteristics distinguished Aslam kolsari
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